Minnesota Twins Trade Comps

By Matt Tschida

Building off of Monday's post, I've dug up a few comparable trades from the past couple years that the Twins could use as a model at this year’s trade deadline (if they end up sellers). I will also go through and discuss some other players who might possibly be moved before July 31.

COMPARABLE TRADES

A comparable trade involving Michael Cuddyer would be the move the Indians made in 2008 when they sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers for top catching prospect Carlos Santana. The Indians included cash in the deal, something the Twins would also need to do given the price of Cuddyer’s contract. Another similar trade again involved the Indians, when in 2009 when they traded Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez (now a potential All-Star closer) and a player to be named later.

How about a comparable trade involving Jason Kubel? Last year Houston traded Lance Berkman to the Yankees for Mark Melancon (who's doing a nice job closing this year) and infield prospect Jimmy Paredes. I think Kubel’s value is higher than Berkman’s--he’s having a much better season than Berkman was, he's six years younger and his contract is reasonable given his production. If the Twins are planning on trading Kubel, they can expect better return than what Houston received.

Jim Thome might provide similar trade value to Kubel if he can stay healthy for a while, although he isn't a Type B free agent, so he wouldn’t net his new team a compensatory draft pick if he returned somewhere else next year. Still, I think Texas (who made a hard push for him last offseason) is a team that would be very interested.

We don't have to look far to find a comparable Matt Capps swap, as the Twins traded away top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Capps just last season. Given that the Twins gave away such a high prospect for Capps, and that he's a Type A free agent, look for the team to stand pat. They're highly unlikely to land a prospect of Ramos' caliber.

OTHER TRADE CANDIDATES

If he can recover quickly from this current injury and put together a solid stretch, Delmon Young would have some value. He's under team control for another year, and if the Twins can’t find a deal at the deadline he'll likely be moved this winter. Ben Revere looks like he’s just about ready to stick, and he's much better defensively. Even if the Twins creep into the race and become buyers, they could use Delmon as trade bait in an attempt to patch the leaky bullpen. They could also use him to build their minor league system with a decent middle infield prospect or two.

If Carl Pavano can put together a solid month he'll have some value in what's looking like a weak starting pitching market. His contract for next season isn’t terrible for an innings eater with an ERA around 4.00. He was brought in to be the veteran presence for this team, but Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have been around long enough to fill that role. For comparison, last season the Indians sent Jake Westbrook to St. Louis for pitching prospects Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood (from the Padres) in a three-team deal.

Both Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are signed for at least another year (Blackburn's signed through 2013), so they probably won't be shopped. However, if the Twins are offered a great prospect, it might be hard to turn down given that Kyle Gibson should be ready to step into the rotation by the end of the year.

Two players who have virtually no trade value are Joe Nathan and Kevin Slowey. They've both been injured or ineffective for most of the year, and Nathan’s contract certainly hurts his trade value as well. The hope is that Nathan will build on Tuesday night's performance and become the reliable right hander the team needs in the bullpen. Slowey's value is slumping, but the Twins are still likely do everything they can to eliminate him as a distraction.

The one player I haven’t discussed at all is Francisco Liriano. Unless someone gives the Twins a great offer, it will be difficult to trade him at this point. He has been the Twins least consistent starting pitcher--he's essentially been either great or terrible. Liriano's under team control for one more year, so it will be interesting to see how he finishes the season (assuming the Twins don’t trade him) and what the team does next offseason. Remember, the Yankees were all over him this spring.

Even if the Twins can push into contention over the next couple weeks, there are everyday players (Delmon Young and any starting pitcher) that could be moved to make room for younger players (Revere and Gibson), who appear ready enough to join the chase.

3 Up, 3 Down: 6/27/10

TRENDING UP

Carl Pavano is quickly becoming the 'stached savior of your slumping Minnesota Twins. While his soup-strainer is all the rage amongst Hennepin Ave. hipsters, it's his right arm that's kept the sinking ship afloat in recent weeks. In his last two outings, Pavano has spun complete game gems, outdueling aces Roy Halladay and Johan Santana. With the Tigers lurking and the White Sox surging, Pavano gave up just one earned run in those 18 invaluable innings, keeping the bullpen fresh and the Twins in first place. His brilliance prevented a bad (3-6) road trip from turning disastrous. It's remarkable to think that, coming into the season, Pavano was the biggest question mark in the rotation. Closing in on the All Star break, Pavano has been the clear-cut MVP of the starting staff. He leads Twins' starters in Wins, Innings Pitched, Quality Starts, and WHIP. There's no glitz, just a rock steady 3.33 ERA and an appetite for innings. He's pitching deep into games, which is reflected in his unbelievable 15 decisions in 15 starts. In fact, he's gone at least seven innings in nine of his last ten starts. At 34, Pavano is having his best season since his 2004 breakout with the Marlins. That season set him up for his big payday with the Yankees, before injuries and a Tommy John surgery derailed his career. Finally healthy, Pavano is back on track and appears to have found a home in Minnesota. He's pitching on a one-year deal, and extending his contract has to be a growing priority for the Twins.

Justin Morneau is heating up again. No lengthy introduction necessary here. The perennial AL MVP candidate batted .412 on the 8-game road trip, including his first two home runs since June 4. Morneau can carry this team for weeks at a time, and getting him dialed in could be just what the doctor ordered for this slumping squad.

Between his own horrid start, and the emergence of fellow corner outfielder Delmon Young, Jason Kubel has flown under the radar. Slowly but surely, Kubel's finally hitting his stride. His June .542 Slugging Pct. leads the team, and he's hit .313 with 4 home runs for the month. Now that interleague play is over and the DH is back in play, expect even more at-bats for the Yankee killer.

TRENDING DOWN

Orlando Hudson's return to the lineup was supposed to reignite the offense. Batting .308 from the two-hole prior to his wrist injury, Hudson has been ice cold since his return from the Disabled List. The hope amongst Twins fans is that his .147 Batting Average and 11 strikeouts in the eight games since his return are a product of rust, not lingering injury. 

I featured Nick Blackburn in my 6/15/10 report, and while I'd prefer to see fresh blood with each installment of 3 Up, 3 Down, he's earned the dishonor of a repeat appearance. Blackburn's June has gone from putrid to downright unacceptable in his last two starts, where he's been shelled for 13 earned runs in just 5.1 innings. Where Pavano has saved the bullpen, Blackburn continues to deplete it. Trade speculation previously reserved for a closer or a third basemen is now focused squarely on Cliff Lee, or another starter, to replace Blackburn in the rotation. He's averaged just three innings in his five June starts, and his ERA for the month has climbed to over a dozen. 

Coming into the season, the Twins had three corner outfielders for two spots, and had signed Jim Thome for platoon DH work. Of the group, Michael Cuddyer was thought to be the only one who could expect regular at-bats. Fast forward to late June, and Cuddyer may now be an infielder. This is not a demotion, and to be fair, Cuddyer deserves a ton of credit for his willingness to help the team out by moving to third base. Nick Punto is terrible offensively, Brendan Harris is terrible in general, and Danny Valencia is terribly overhyped, so Cuddyer's selflessness in an era of Albert Haynesworth's is refreshing. With that said, Cuddyer continues to have an uninspiring year at the plate. Batting .259, he's well off last year's pace with just 7 Home Runs and 33 RBI's. I've been openly critical of Ron Gardenhire's insistence on keeping Cuddyer planted in the heart of the order as the right handed threat, seeing as how he isn't really a threat, and how Delmon Young has vastly outperformed him all season. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Gardenhire's insufferable loyalty to "his guys" is costing this team runs. At this point, I'm not overly concerned by Cuddyer's offensive performance, as much as I am annoyed.

Unfortunately, I had a much easier time finding "Downers" than "Uppers" this time around. That will happen after a .333 road trip. So 3 Down Honorable Mentions go out to Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Ron Gardenhire, and Joe Mauer. With an important 7-game home stand against Detroit and Tampa starting tomorrow, I'm hoping my next report will be more enjoyable.

3 Up, 3 Down: 6/15/10

TRENDING UP
I feel compelled to kick off my 3 Up, 3 Down series with a player who I’ve ripped more than anyone over the last two seasons. Delmon Young came to the Twins in November of 2007 with a ton of hype. He also brought with him a poor work ethic, a reputation for being uncoachable, the stigma of an epic bat toss, and a lot of baby fat. Watching Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett excel for the Rays over the last two seasons, while the key cog in our side of the deal inexplicably struggled, was beyond frustrating for Twins fans. Despite a surprisingly strong finish to 2009 and worlds of untapped potential, many fans were ready to cut their losses and move on without Young, like we did Carlos Gomez. Our power-swinging prospect had morphed into, at best, an undisciplined seeing-eye singles hitter. And, what was worse, he didn’t seem to care.

But something clicked last offseason. Young showed up for Spring Training 30 pounds lighter. He started showing dedication to improvement. He hustled. He listened. He cared. Yes, Delmon Young suddenly appeared to have become a professional. Building upon his late ’09 upswing and a newfound commitment, Young has emerged as the Twins’ most dangerous right handed bat throughout the first half of 2010. Batting .295 and slugging .500, he tops fellow right-handed masher Michael Cuddyer in both categories. In 45 less at bats, he also bests Cuddyer in Home Runs (8), Doubles (15), and RBI (41). It's worth noting that he trails only Justin Morneau in the RBI department (43). It doesn't end there. He's drastically cut down his strikeouts. He's having good at bats; he's already taken more walks than all of last year. He's hitting in the clutch. And while his fielding is still suspect, he's covering more ground this year since unhooking the plow. This is the player we thought we were getting in 2007, and as of right now, he's entrenched in a battle with Francisco Liriano and John Rauch for the best surprise of 2010.

After a shaky May, Liriano is dialed back in. In his two June starts, he's struck out 21 in 15 innings, with a 1.20 ERA. His 87 strikeouts currently rank 5th in the Majors, and he leads the four pitchers in front of him in K/9 and ERA.

John Rauch doesn't have Joe Nathan's stuff. Not even close. But he's done everything the Twins have asked of him. What he lacks in a dominant strikeout pitch, he more than makes up for with a perfect closer's mentality. He has poise, he's fearless, and he has a short memory. This is something for which I've been openly critical of Nathan, especially with last season's stretch-run tailspin that snowballed into the playoffs. So while murmurs of an "upgrade" via trade continue to swirl through Twins Territory, Rauch's 16 saves are tied for the league lead, and his 2.52 ERA remains stellar. He's getting the most out of limited talent, and for that I applaud him.

TRENDING DOWN
After a 5-0 May, Nick Blackburn has gone the other way. His three June starts have been 13.1 innings of batting practice (an 8.10 ERA). Gross, but not all that surprising. Blackburn is an average pitcher, and a pitch-to-contact type who can't strike anyone out, so there was bound to be a correction. It's just never pretty when it happens.

I know, it's too soon to be hard on Trevor Plouffe. But after two hits in his debut, he's gone 1 for 21, and has looked a bit lost at Shorstop filling in for the injured J.J. Hardy. A former first round draft pick, I guess my criticism is more a cumulation of failed expectations and disappoinments. Selected 20th overall in 2004, Plouffe has hovered around mediocrity every step of the way. I have an easier time picturing him as the classic Twins' fringe AAA/MLB middle infielder than I do as an everyday Shortstop. He certainly doesn't have the limitless upside of Miguel Angel Sano, who's replaced Plouffe as the organization's new "Shortstop of the Future."

I feel a little guilty mentioning Denard Span here. He's so solid and fundamentally sound in every facet of the game, which makes me think that this funk will be over soon. Good mechanics usually prevent long slumps, and his .204 June BA is surely a mirage. In fact, I'd have let it slide, if not for his more troubling .235 June OBP. With just 2 walks in 51 June plate appearances, the Twins simply need better from their table setter. I'm not worried.

You may have noticed that I omitted Jesse Crain from this list. It's just too easy. He's out of options, and I'm out of bourbon, so we're calling it a night. Check back in the coming weeks for more 3 Up, 3 Down Twins analysis.