Minnesota Twins' 2nd Half Outlook

By Matt Tschida

REASONS FOR HOPE

2nd Half History
The Twins are 6.5 games out of first place, which seems like a large hill to climb (and it really is), but last season they were 3.5 games back at the break and finished 6.0 games ahead of second place Chicago (a 9.5 game swing). In 2006, they were 12.0 games out at the break, and ended up winning the division by a game. It’s mathematically unlikely, but the Twins have shown the ability to erase second half deficits in the Gardenhire era.

Injuries
The Twins have only fielded their “A” lineup in a handful of games the entire year. If the offense can return to full strength, this lineup should be as productive as it was last year when they finished 6th in the league in runs (they currently rank 25th). A fairly consistent pitching staff (with the exception of Francisco Liriano) coupled with a more productive offense would certainly add victories in the second half.

Trade Help?
The Twins really don’t have many holes offensively, so assuming the division is still within reach at the trade deadline, they’ll likely look for pitching help.

Alexi Casilla has been providing more consistent at bats, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (now healthy) has begun to find his swing, so their spots are okay for now. Danny Valencia has struggled for stretches at the plate, but he's notched 10 homeruns and 46 RBI; the Twins are going to ride out this season (at least) with him as their third baseman.

Outside of Liriano's inconsistency, the starting rotation has been relatively dependable this season. As a whole, the starters have gone 33-32 with a 3.98 ERA. Clearly, the team's biggest holes are in the bullpen, where as a unit they've lost 16 games and amassed a 5.01 ERA. Glen Perkins has become the only trustworthy option. Matt Capps has been shaky, and before his return from the DL Joe Nathan was unsettled. The Twins desperately need another right handed setup man, or even closer, so they can move Capps into a setup role. I hope the Twins don’t settle for Capps as the closer, because he's putting up much worse numbers than John Rauch did to this point last season, and they felt he needed to be replaced:

Capps 2011 through July 13: 4.42 ERA, 15-21 Saves/Opportunities
Rauch 2010 through July 13: 2.38 ERA, 20-24 Saves/Opportunities


REASONS FOR CONCERN

The Bullpen
One of the strengths of last year’s team has now become its biggest weakness, and it should come as no surprise since the club let Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Brian Fuentes walk during free agency without adding any significant replacements. As noted earlier, the bullpen has already lost this team 16 games, where as last year's pen only lost 18 games throughout the entire season. There’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than losing a lead late in a ballgame, and we've already seen it way too much this season. If the Twins expect to make a run at the division, Bill Smith needs to make a significant trade to bring in a legitimate late-inning right handed reliever.

Injuries
Because of their unpredictable nature, "injuries" are cause for both hope and concern. This roster has been decimated by injuries, and they'll need Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel to return healthy and productive. It also goes without saying that other regulars need stay out of the trainer's office, which sounds simple enough but has proven to be a major obstacle this season.

Francisco Liriano
Liriano has been the team’s most inconsistent starter through the first half of the year. On one hand he nearly pitched his way out of the rotation. On the other, he tossed a no-hitter and threatened for a second. The Twins don’t need Liriano to be lights out in the second half, they just need him to be consistent. If he can string together a streak of six or seven quality starts, it would really his confidence going forward, and the team's chances of making a push for the division.

Minnesota Twins Trade Comps

By Matt Tschida

Building off of Monday's post, I've dug up a few comparable trades from the past couple years that the Twins could use as a model at this year’s trade deadline (if they end up sellers). I will also go through and discuss some other players who might possibly be moved before July 31.

COMPARABLE TRADES

A comparable trade involving Michael Cuddyer would be the move the Indians made in 2008 when they sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers for top catching prospect Carlos Santana. The Indians included cash in the deal, something the Twins would also need to do given the price of Cuddyer’s contract. Another similar trade again involved the Indians, when in 2009 when they traded Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez (now a potential All-Star closer) and a player to be named later.

How about a comparable trade involving Jason Kubel? Last year Houston traded Lance Berkman to the Yankees for Mark Melancon (who's doing a nice job closing this year) and infield prospect Jimmy Paredes. I think Kubel’s value is higher than Berkman’s--he’s having a much better season than Berkman was, he's six years younger and his contract is reasonable given his production. If the Twins are planning on trading Kubel, they can expect better return than what Houston received.

Jim Thome might provide similar trade value to Kubel if he can stay healthy for a while, although he isn't a Type B free agent, so he wouldn’t net his new team a compensatory draft pick if he returned somewhere else next year. Still, I think Texas (who made a hard push for him last offseason) is a team that would be very interested.

We don't have to look far to find a comparable Matt Capps swap, as the Twins traded away top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Capps just last season. Given that the Twins gave away such a high prospect for Capps, and that he's a Type A free agent, look for the team to stand pat. They're highly unlikely to land a prospect of Ramos' caliber.

OTHER TRADE CANDIDATES

If he can recover quickly from this current injury and put together a solid stretch, Delmon Young would have some value. He's under team control for another year, and if the Twins can’t find a deal at the deadline he'll likely be moved this winter. Ben Revere looks like he’s just about ready to stick, and he's much better defensively. Even if the Twins creep into the race and become buyers, they could use Delmon as trade bait in an attempt to patch the leaky bullpen. They could also use him to build their minor league system with a decent middle infield prospect or two.

If Carl Pavano can put together a solid month he'll have some value in what's looking like a weak starting pitching market. His contract for next season isn’t terrible for an innings eater with an ERA around 4.00. He was brought in to be the veteran presence for this team, but Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have been around long enough to fill that role. For comparison, last season the Indians sent Jake Westbrook to St. Louis for pitching prospects Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood (from the Padres) in a three-team deal.

Both Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are signed for at least another year (Blackburn's signed through 2013), so they probably won't be shopped. However, if the Twins are offered a great prospect, it might be hard to turn down given that Kyle Gibson should be ready to step into the rotation by the end of the year.

Two players who have virtually no trade value are Joe Nathan and Kevin Slowey. They've both been injured or ineffective for most of the year, and Nathan’s contract certainly hurts his trade value as well. The hope is that Nathan will build on Tuesday night's performance and become the reliable right hander the team needs in the bullpen. Slowey's value is slumping, but the Twins are still likely do everything they can to eliminate him as a distraction.

The one player I haven’t discussed at all is Francisco Liriano. Unless someone gives the Twins a great offer, it will be difficult to trade him at this point. He has been the Twins least consistent starting pitcher--he's essentially been either great or terrible. Liriano's under team control for one more year, so it will be interesting to see how he finishes the season (assuming the Twins don’t trade him) and what the team does next offseason. Remember, the Yankees were all over him this spring.

Even if the Twins can push into contention over the next couple weeks, there are everyday players (Delmon Young and any starting pitcher) that could be moved to make room for younger players (Revere and Gibson), who appear ready enough to join the chase.

Weekend Recap and Trade Considerations

By Matt Tschida

After it appeared the Twins had figured a few things out, the past five games looked awfully similar to their early-season woes. While Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Scott Baker all pitched well enough to win, the offense (with many starters still out and Mauer and Nishioka still trying to find their timing) came up empty, scoring just eight runs during their five-game losing streak.

Is there still a glimmer of hope? I think so, but it’s fading fast, and the next 13 games will likely determine the fate of this season. Playing 21 of their next 25 games at home will finally even out the season home/road splits. To have a decent shot, the Twins will probably need to win at least nine of their remaining 13 games going into the break. Moreover, they'll likely need to scratch 17 or 18 wins out of this 25-game stretch. The only way I see this happening is if the healthy starting pitching can continue to give the club strong efforts, carrying the injury-depleted lineup on their backs.

Trade Position: Sellers?
It appears that at this point the Twins will (or probably should) be sellers. At second glance, however, they may be better off sitting on their hands (even past the trade deadline). Their top trade candidates – Cuddyer, Kubel and Capps (impending free agents) have been moving up the Elias player rankings. Why is this important? Bill Smith's trading record is an absolute train wreck, and the fact that the Twins could land two or three extra first round compensatory picks if these players leave via free agency probably makes standing pat a more logical decision.

As of a couple weeks ago (before winning 15 of 17), I felt that Cuddyer needed to be traded. Not because of his play, but because of his contract situation and the fact that he wasn’t even ranked as a Type B player at the time. Now, after a month of being one of the hottest hitters in baseball, Cuddyer has leapt into Type A status. Jason Kubel is sitting at the top end of the Type B plateau, only percentage points away (just below Tampa Bay’s Matt Joyce) from qualifying as a Type A player. One could easily argue that had Kubel been healthy the last 2-3 weeks and continued to produce at his current rate, he would be in the Type A class. Matt Capps, even without a great first half, is right in the middle of the Type A relief pitcher rankings.

Just a refresher for those not familiar with the Type A/Type B rankings – this link explains it well.

Why do the Type A/Type B rankings matter when determining whether a team will trade a player or not? Well, let's look at Cuddyer, now considered a Type A player. If the Phillies (a team that reportedly has interest in Cuddyer) want to trade for him and the prospects they offer are rated lower than what the Twins scouts think they could get in next year’s first round, then they might decline the trade. Conversely, if Cuddyer was still ranked lower than Type B and he declined arbitration, the Twins would not receive any compensation this offseason if he were to decline arbitration and walk.

The Twins can actually use this information as leverage when negotiating deals. Going back to the Cuddyer/Phillies example – The Twins can argue that the Phillies are getting Cuddyer for the rest of this season, plus they’re getting a 2012 first rounder if he declines arbitration and signs elsewhere.

So, do I think the Twins should trade Cuddyer, Capps or Kubel? If they can find an aggressive buyer, as other teams have in recent years, then sure. However, I don't think they should sell just because these players are impending free agents. Bill Smith has had a lot more success building this team’s minor league system (see Gibson, Hicks, Gutierrez) than he has making major league trades. Stay tuned — later this week I'll be breaking down recent comparable trades for these three players, as well as other possible Twins who could be moved at the deadline.

Sabermetrics Q&A

I'm happy to welcome another guest to the site, as 1500 ESPN's Phil Mackey checks in from a dugout in sunny South Florida to help bridge the gap between traditional statistics and sabermetrics for the casual fan.

OML: Which do you consider the most overrated traditional statistic for both hitters and pitchers?

PM: For hitters, it’s definitely batting average. For pitchers, wins are mostly irrelevant in today’s game.

Batting average doesn’t take into account walks or power, which are two huge ingredients in run creation. The goal in baseball, at least offensively, is to generate as many runs as possible. Runs are created by A.) getting on base, and B.) moving those guys around. That’s why on-base percentage (which includes walks) and slugging percentage (power, moving guys around) are far more relevant than batting average.

The Royals (.272) had the second-highest team batting average in baseball last season, yet they scored the 20th-most runs. The Phillies hit just .260 last season, but they scored 100 more runs than Kansas City. Why? On-base percentage and slugging percentage.

As for pitcher wins, they obviously favor pitchers who have better run support. It just doesn’t make sense to keep track of a stat that is so heavily influence by run support and bullpen support. In the days where pitchers threw 8-9 innings every night, wins were slightly more relevant.

OML: OPS (on-base plus slugging) and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) have trickled into mainstream statistical analysis. Which sabermetric measurement should be next?

PM: I think you’ll definitely see BABIP (batting average on balls in play) become more relevant, in analyzing both pitchers and hitters. It tells you a lot about how lucky or unlucky players are. Hitters can have higher or lower BABIPs depending on how fast they are, or how many fly balls vs. groundballs a player hits. For pitchers, because they all face the same pool of hitters (for the most part), their BABIP against will almost always be between .280 and .310. Anything above or below (Liriano’s .335 mark last year, for example) will almost always come back to the middle.

OML: How is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) tabulated, and why/how does it matter?

PM: WAR is basically a one-stop value stat, because it includes a player’s offense, defense, baserunning, everything. “Replacement level” is defined as “widely available talent,” meaning guys you can pull off the scrap heap from AAA -- think Matt Tolbert, Willie Bloomquist, Jeff Francoeur, Mark Teahen, etc. Based on years of data, a team full of “replacement-level” players would win approximately 40 games (see: 2003 Tigers).

To put WAR into context, playoff teams generally need to win at least 90 games. Since a team of replacement players would likely win 40 games, GMs need to find 50 extra Wins Above Replacement. Take that 50 WAR and divide it by 25 (number of players on a roster) and each player is worth an average of two wins above replacement.

The best players in baseball are usually worth 7-10 WAR in any given MVP season. In other words, not even Albert Pujols is worth 20 extra wins to the Cardinals.

OML: So PECOTA isn't about saving dolphins?

PM: PECOTA is a complicated set of formulas created by the guys at Baseball Prospectus to project future performance. PECOTA is also used to compare current players to the career paths of former players.

Interesting stuff for geeks like me.

OML: Can you explain UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in 140 characters or less?

PM: Hmm… I’ll try.

UZR basically tells you how many plays a fielder made compared to the average baseline. It then converts that number to "runs saved.”

If I had more than 140 characters, I’d tell you that UZR is much more important than errors and fielding percentage, because it accounts for everything. If an outfielder lets a fly ball fall in front of him for a hit, he obviously isn’t charged with an error (if a tree falls in the forest…). But he would be “charged” with not making the play, according to UZR, because a ball fell into his zone that another player may have caught.

OML: Billy Beane is considered one of the pioneers of sabermetrics. Outside of the obvious (Joe Mauer), which Twins would he covet?

PM: Actually, Beane isn’t necessarily a pioneer of sabermetrics. He’s the pioneer of Moneyball -- a theory that revolves around capitalizing on the market. Ten years ago, Beane noticed that on-base percentage was cheap to acquire, so he loaded up. Over the last five years, defense has been the new Moneyball (see: Red Sox, Rays, others).

Outside of Mauer, I’m not sure there are any sabermetric sleepers in the Twins’ lineup. Guys like Jason Kubel and Delmon Young are probably overvalued because they don’t play very good defense.

OML: Off the top of your head, which players would you consider the most overrated and underrated in the league, according to sabermetrics?

PM: Off the top of my head, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria might be slightly underrated, because people don’t realize how highly they rate defensively. Anyone with a high OBP that doesn’t get much recognition is probably underrated.

Alfonso Soriano is overrated, because of his lower OBP, and Jermaine Dye was one of the most overrated players in baseball during his last few seasons because he was a statue in right field.

OML: The Athletics, Rays, and Red Sox have obviously done it -- do most Major League teams have sabermetrics consultants? Does Bill Smith have anyone in his back pocket?

PM: I would estimate most teams at this point have engaged in some type of stat work. Even if teams don’t use it much for their own player evaluations, they should be aware of what other teams are doing.

As far as I know, the Twins don’t have any significant sabermetric influence. They may or may not have a guy crunching numbers somewhere, but the Twins rely almost entirely on traditional scouting. And until they suffer through a 90-loss season, it probably won’t change much.

OML: Do sabermetrics carry much weight at the negotiation table?

PM: That’s a great question. I’ve always wondered that, especially in arbitration cases. I’m guessing it’s just like any other negotiation or argument -- if one of the parties can use sabermetrics to their advantage, they probably do.

OML: At the end of the day, how should the casual fan balance traditional statistics and sabermetrics?

PM: Some people say they don’t pay attention to sabermetrics because they enjoy watching games too much -- they don’t want to be so caught up in numbers.

As a guy who covers the Twins on a daily basis, talks to people in the organization every day, and watches live games every day -- but who also has a very rich sabermetric background -- I find baseball a lot more interesting when I have information from both sides; traditional and saber.

If it was possible to evaluate players with ONLY the naked eye, we wouldn’t have invented batting average. Sabermetrics are just the next evolution, and they are far less complicated than people think.

Follow Phil Mackey's Spring Training updates on Twitter at @PMac21.

3 Up, 3 Down: 6/27/10

TRENDING UP

Carl Pavano is quickly becoming the 'stached savior of your slumping Minnesota Twins. While his soup-strainer is all the rage amongst Hennepin Ave. hipsters, it's his right arm that's kept the sinking ship afloat in recent weeks. In his last two outings, Pavano has spun complete game gems, outdueling aces Roy Halladay and Johan Santana. With the Tigers lurking and the White Sox surging, Pavano gave up just one earned run in those 18 invaluable innings, keeping the bullpen fresh and the Twins in first place. His brilliance prevented a bad (3-6) road trip from turning disastrous. It's remarkable to think that, coming into the season, Pavano was the biggest question mark in the rotation. Closing in on the All Star break, Pavano has been the clear-cut MVP of the starting staff. He leads Twins' starters in Wins, Innings Pitched, Quality Starts, and WHIP. There's no glitz, just a rock steady 3.33 ERA and an appetite for innings. He's pitching deep into games, which is reflected in his unbelievable 15 decisions in 15 starts. In fact, he's gone at least seven innings in nine of his last ten starts. At 34, Pavano is having his best season since his 2004 breakout with the Marlins. That season set him up for his big payday with the Yankees, before injuries and a Tommy John surgery derailed his career. Finally healthy, Pavano is back on track and appears to have found a home in Minnesota. He's pitching on a one-year deal, and extending his contract has to be a growing priority for the Twins.

Justin Morneau is heating up again. No lengthy introduction necessary here. The perennial AL MVP candidate batted .412 on the 8-game road trip, including his first two home runs since June 4. Morneau can carry this team for weeks at a time, and getting him dialed in could be just what the doctor ordered for this slumping squad.

Between his own horrid start, and the emergence of fellow corner outfielder Delmon Young, Jason Kubel has flown under the radar. Slowly but surely, Kubel's finally hitting his stride. His June .542 Slugging Pct. leads the team, and he's hit .313 with 4 home runs for the month. Now that interleague play is over and the DH is back in play, expect even more at-bats for the Yankee killer.

TRENDING DOWN

Orlando Hudson's return to the lineup was supposed to reignite the offense. Batting .308 from the two-hole prior to his wrist injury, Hudson has been ice cold since his return from the Disabled List. The hope amongst Twins fans is that his .147 Batting Average and 11 strikeouts in the eight games since his return are a product of rust, not lingering injury. 

I featured Nick Blackburn in my 6/15/10 report, and while I'd prefer to see fresh blood with each installment of 3 Up, 3 Down, he's earned the dishonor of a repeat appearance. Blackburn's June has gone from putrid to downright unacceptable in his last two starts, where he's been shelled for 13 earned runs in just 5.1 innings. Where Pavano has saved the bullpen, Blackburn continues to deplete it. Trade speculation previously reserved for a closer or a third basemen is now focused squarely on Cliff Lee, or another starter, to replace Blackburn in the rotation. He's averaged just three innings in his five June starts, and his ERA for the month has climbed to over a dozen. 

Coming into the season, the Twins had three corner outfielders for two spots, and had signed Jim Thome for platoon DH work. Of the group, Michael Cuddyer was thought to be the only one who could expect regular at-bats. Fast forward to late June, and Cuddyer may now be an infielder. This is not a demotion, and to be fair, Cuddyer deserves a ton of credit for his willingness to help the team out by moving to third base. Nick Punto is terrible offensively, Brendan Harris is terrible in general, and Danny Valencia is terribly overhyped, so Cuddyer's selflessness in an era of Albert Haynesworth's is refreshing. With that said, Cuddyer continues to have an uninspiring year at the plate. Batting .259, he's well off last year's pace with just 7 Home Runs and 33 RBI's. I've been openly critical of Ron Gardenhire's insistence on keeping Cuddyer planted in the heart of the order as the right handed threat, seeing as how he isn't really a threat, and how Delmon Young has vastly outperformed him all season. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Gardenhire's insufferable loyalty to "his guys" is costing this team runs. At this point, I'm not overly concerned by Cuddyer's offensive performance, as much as I am annoyed.

Unfortunately, I had a much easier time finding "Downers" than "Uppers" this time around. That will happen after a .333 road trip. So 3 Down Honorable Mentions go out to Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Ron Gardenhire, and Joe Mauer. With an important 7-game home stand against Detroit and Tampa starting tomorrow, I'm hoping my next report will be more enjoyable.

Damn Yankees

This is what total domination looks like. So how big was tonight's win? By winning two of their last four against the Evil Empire, the Twins may have proven to their fans, and more importantly themselves, that they can compete with the Yankees in a 5-game playoff series. I have a gut feeling that when the season ends, we'll be looking back to this game as a major turning point. Not only in the standings, but between the ears.

Despite a terrible start to the season, I have to give a tip of the hat to Jason Kubel. He continues to redeem himself when it matters most: against the Yankees.