Minnesota Twins' Offseason: Part 1 of 4

By Matt Tschida

In the coming weeks, I will look ahead to the 2012 season and discuss how I think the team will (or should) handle each of four positional groupings: C/1B, 2B/SS/3B, OF/DH and the pitching staff. Payroll will obviously be a consideration, and I'm speculating that the Twins will have around $22M to spend before trading away any of their current players ($83M is already going towards their current roster for 2012, and I'm budgeting approximately $105M).

CATCHER

CURRENT

Starter: Joe Mauer

Backup: Drew Butera, Rene Rivera

2012

Starter: Joe Mauer/Free Agent
Backup: Free Agent (Butera/AAA as third option)

Ideally, the Twins could trust Joe Mauer to catch 135+ games, but having only done that five times in his eight-year career, it’s not wise to bank on that. Instead, the Twins should sign a veteran catcher who can hold his own at the plate. The Drew Butera experiment should be over. A position player (whether he's a defensive gem or not) who can’t hit above .200 shouldn't be in the lineup, even for 20-25 games. If the Twins can sign someone who wouldn’t be an embarrassment at the plate, he could also be mixed in at DH occasionally. This section will dive deep into the free agent pool, as I believe it sets up the rest of the lineup for the Twins. A solid offensive catcher who can occasionally be a capable DH would give the Twins most for their money.

Below is a list of free agents to consider. Obviously, there are other options, but given the Twins struggles against left-handed pitching this list probably makes the most sense.

Ramon Hernandez (Reds) – This would be the ideal signing. He could catch half the games (or more depending on how healthy Mauer stays), and DH the other half. He's been a half-time player the last three years, splitting time with Ryan Hanigan, so he'd likely would be fine splitting time in Minnesota as well. Despite limited playing time, Hernandez is still projected to be a Type A free agent. This could be a factor—the Twins wouldn’t even attempt to sign him if he was offered arbitration, but the Reds will likely just let him walk with Hanigan already on board and top prospect Devin Mesoraco ready for the big show. Hernandez may have a few suitors, but considering he made only $3M in 2011, signing him to a one-year, $4-5M deal could be a bargain if he was also the Twins DH against LHP (he hit .323 vs. LHP in 2011).

Rod Barajas (Dodgers) – Barajas is an average to below-average hitter and would be an average signing for the Twins. Barajas may want to look elsewhere and try to be a team’s starting catcher instead of backing up, since he was the Dodgers' primary catcher in 2011. Barajas wouldn’t be a huge upgrade over a Butera or Rivera at the plate vs. RHP, but he did hit .267 against LHP. He also has decent power, hitting 16 HR in just over 300 ABs. Personally, I would pass on Barajas, but the Twins may have interest.

Ramon Castro (White Sox) – Castro is another catcher who is a back-up candidate, as he’s only caught more than more than 57 games once in his career. The Twins are familiar with Castro—he backed up A.J. Pierzynski with the White Sox for the past 2-1/2 seasons. If Mauer could stay healthy for an entire season, Castro would fit nicely as he hit LHP in 2011 at a .289 clip with 3 HR in just 45 ABs.

Jason Varitek (Red Sox) – This signing is clearly a long shot, but it's interesting to ponder. I predict Varitek either retires and is hired as a bench coach for the Red Sox, or returns as their backup for one more season. Hit .264 vs. LHP, but only .200 vs. RHP, so he's nothing more than a backup at this stage of his career.

Ryan Doumit/Chris Snyder (Pirates) – Doumit would likely be my second choice for the Twins to sign after Hernandez, but Snyder could be an option as more of a backup if the Twins go that route. Each has a spendy club option (Snyder at $6.75M and Doumit at $7.25M) so it will depend on which (if either) the Pirates decide to re-sign. Doumit has been more consistent at the plate thoughout his career hitting, .271 compared to Snyder who is a career .231 hitter. Doumit also has more positional flexibility, having played at both 1B and in RF for the Pirates. Doumit could fill in at 1B, RF, or DH against LHP when he’s not catching—he’s a career .262 hitter vs. LHP, but did hit .315 against lefties in 2011.

Jose Molina (Blue Jays) – Molina had a solid 2011 season for the Blue Jays, hitting .281/.342/.415 in 55 games. If he could repeat these numbers it would be another ideal signing for the Twins. He hit LHP about the same as he hit RHP, so filling in as a starter for a longer period of time wouldn’t be a huge burden on the offense. That is a big "if," though, as Molina has hit over .260 only one other time in his career.

FIRST BASE

Current

Starter: Justin Morneau
Backup: Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Luke Hughes, Chris Parmelee

2012

Starter: Justin Morneau
Backup: Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer (if re-signed), Chris Parmelee, Luke Hughes

This is another area where the Twins have to hope that health conditions are on their side for 2012. Ideally, they would like to count on Morneau to play 1B for 150+ games next season. If he can’t stay healthy, you’ll likely see quite a bit of Mauer at 1B. As mentioned above, the hope is that the Twins can sign a catcher capable of playing every day. This would allow Mauer to step in at 1B when needed if Morneau got hurt or couldn't play, and it would also allow Morneau to DH if Mauer plays 1B. If (another big "if") Cuddyer returns, he can also fill in at 1B when needed. Chris Parmelee showed signs that he might be closer to MLB-ready than most people thought, but the Twins would like to have him play at least half of next season at AAA instead of making the jump directly from AA. Luke Hughes can fill in some also at 1B, but is below average offensively and doesn’t have experience defensively at 1B.


Up Next: 2B/SS/3B

Twins' Notes and Thoughts...

By Matt Tschida

Mauer at First Base

Joe Mauer made his first start at first base yesterday, and it went really well. He converted every chance, plus he made a great pick on a low throw from Danny Valencia. At the plate, he reminded us how valuable he is to the lineup, going 3-5 with 2 RBI. Mauer has made it clear that he's still a catcher, but is open to playing first base occasionally.

Instead of Mauer catching five games a week, DHing once, and resting once, I'd like to see him catch four-five days a week, play first base once, and DH once. This would allow him about an extra game a week, while still keeping his knees, back and legs fresh. So, what will happen once Morneau returns from the DL? Well, Mauer's weekly first base start gives Morneau a chance to DH or rest. This plan could potentially keep the Twins' two most important hitters in the lineup more regularly than the last two seasons.


Cuddyer on Fire
Michael Cuddyer is flat out on fire, returning to his 2009 form with a .325 BA, 10 HRs and 36 RBI since May 1. Like I've mentioned in previous posts, if the Twins are indeed sellers (which is looking less and less likely), they'd need to get a top prospect for Cuddyer. Otherwise, they're best off keeping him and picking up the compensation picks in the offseason. With the way the Indians and Tigers have been treading water lately, I think it would be a mistake to trade Cuddyer unless the Twins fall something like 12+ games back before the trade deadline.

If the Twins can make up four games (from 8.0 to 4.0) by July 31, then they should be in good shape. I realize that's a lot to ask for in 21 games, but they did cut the lead down to 8.0 games after being 16.5 back on June 1. They will likely get Morneau back, and hopefully 100% healthy for the first time in a year, so they'll need Cuddyer to balance the lineup versus left-handed pitching. Cuddyer is crushing lefties (.383 BA), and the only other Twins' regular hitting above .300 versus lefties is Danny Valencia (.341).

Bullpen Situation
Matt Capps has really been up and down all season, and hopefully he hit his low point after blowing a 7-4 lead against Milwaukee. He had an average April (3.55 ERA), a bad May (0-2 with a 6.35 ERA), and a great June (1-0, 6 saves, 0.90 ERA). The Twins need Capps to be strong over the next couple of months to have a chance, filling the void of a reliable right handed reliever. They are hoping Joe Nathan continues his return to form, but until he gets consistent work, that's still an unknown.

Glen Perkins has grabbed his opportunity by the horns. Before the season, I felt like Perkins had a chance to slide into Brian Duensing's vacated bullpen role. Perkins has done that and more, and he's currently their hottest, most trustworthy reliever.

Alex Burnett had been getting a lot of run lately, and he'd only given up hits in two of his previous 12 outings prior to Wednesday’s disaster. Going forward, his role is undefined and unpromising.

Joe Nathan is, as he's been all season, the wildcard of this bullpen. He's been great since coming off the DL, striking out five and allowing just one run on two hits in 5.0 innings. If he can return to form, the pen has potential to be solid (not great) with Capps/Nathan being used at the end of games from the right side, and Perkins and (to a lesser extent) Mijares from the left.

As the rest of the bullpen goes, there really isn’t much to talk about. Anthony Swarzak is best suited for long relief/spot starting. Jose Mijares is fine when he throws strikes, bad when he doesn’t, and he's falling behind far too many hitters this year. Phil Dumatrait is about ready to be (or at least should be) sent packing to make room for Chuck James. James has been solid at AAA, and did well in his brief stint earlier this season with the Twins. For those wondering, Dumatrait likely would have been sent down instead of James, but James had options to go to AAA that Dumatrait didn’t have. Another name to keep tabs on at AAA is former 1st round pick Carlos Gutierrez (2-2, 3.88 ERA, 38 K, 25 BB, in 48.2 IP). If he can string together a couple weeks of solid performances, he could be brought up. Gardy has publicly said he likes the kid, but management is conserving him in the minors to keep his MLB service time in check.

Minnesota Twins Trade Comps

By Matt Tschida

Building off of Monday's post, I've dug up a few comparable trades from the past couple years that the Twins could use as a model at this year’s trade deadline (if they end up sellers). I will also go through and discuss some other players who might possibly be moved before July 31.

COMPARABLE TRADES

A comparable trade involving Michael Cuddyer would be the move the Indians made in 2008 when they sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers for top catching prospect Carlos Santana. The Indians included cash in the deal, something the Twins would also need to do given the price of Cuddyer’s contract. Another similar trade again involved the Indians, when in 2009 when they traded Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez (now a potential All-Star closer) and a player to be named later.

How about a comparable trade involving Jason Kubel? Last year Houston traded Lance Berkman to the Yankees for Mark Melancon (who's doing a nice job closing this year) and infield prospect Jimmy Paredes. I think Kubel’s value is higher than Berkman’s--he’s having a much better season than Berkman was, he's six years younger and his contract is reasonable given his production. If the Twins are planning on trading Kubel, they can expect better return than what Houston received.

Jim Thome might provide similar trade value to Kubel if he can stay healthy for a while, although he isn't a Type B free agent, so he wouldn’t net his new team a compensatory draft pick if he returned somewhere else next year. Still, I think Texas (who made a hard push for him last offseason) is a team that would be very interested.

We don't have to look far to find a comparable Matt Capps swap, as the Twins traded away top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Capps just last season. Given that the Twins gave away such a high prospect for Capps, and that he's a Type A free agent, look for the team to stand pat. They're highly unlikely to land a prospect of Ramos' caliber.

OTHER TRADE CANDIDATES

If he can recover quickly from this current injury and put together a solid stretch, Delmon Young would have some value. He's under team control for another year, and if the Twins can’t find a deal at the deadline he'll likely be moved this winter. Ben Revere looks like he’s just about ready to stick, and he's much better defensively. Even if the Twins creep into the race and become buyers, they could use Delmon as trade bait in an attempt to patch the leaky bullpen. They could also use him to build their minor league system with a decent middle infield prospect or two.

If Carl Pavano can put together a solid month he'll have some value in what's looking like a weak starting pitching market. His contract for next season isn’t terrible for an innings eater with an ERA around 4.00. He was brought in to be the veteran presence for this team, but Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have been around long enough to fill that role. For comparison, last season the Indians sent Jake Westbrook to St. Louis for pitching prospects Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood (from the Padres) in a three-team deal.

Both Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are signed for at least another year (Blackburn's signed through 2013), so they probably won't be shopped. However, if the Twins are offered a great prospect, it might be hard to turn down given that Kyle Gibson should be ready to step into the rotation by the end of the year.

Two players who have virtually no trade value are Joe Nathan and Kevin Slowey. They've both been injured or ineffective for most of the year, and Nathan’s contract certainly hurts his trade value as well. The hope is that Nathan will build on Tuesday night's performance and become the reliable right hander the team needs in the bullpen. Slowey's value is slumping, but the Twins are still likely do everything they can to eliminate him as a distraction.

The one player I haven’t discussed at all is Francisco Liriano. Unless someone gives the Twins a great offer, it will be difficult to trade him at this point. He has been the Twins least consistent starting pitcher--he's essentially been either great or terrible. Liriano's under team control for one more year, so it will be interesting to see how he finishes the season (assuming the Twins don’t trade him) and what the team does next offseason. Remember, the Yankees were all over him this spring.

Even if the Twins can push into contention over the next couple weeks, there are everyday players (Delmon Young and any starting pitcher) that could be moved to make room for younger players (Revere and Gibson), who appear ready enough to join the chase.

Weekend Recap and Trade Considerations

By Matt Tschida

After it appeared the Twins had figured a few things out, the past five games looked awfully similar to their early-season woes. While Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Scott Baker all pitched well enough to win, the offense (with many starters still out and Mauer and Nishioka still trying to find their timing) came up empty, scoring just eight runs during their five-game losing streak.

Is there still a glimmer of hope? I think so, but it’s fading fast, and the next 13 games will likely determine the fate of this season. Playing 21 of their next 25 games at home will finally even out the season home/road splits. To have a decent shot, the Twins will probably need to win at least nine of their remaining 13 games going into the break. Moreover, they'll likely need to scratch 17 or 18 wins out of this 25-game stretch. The only way I see this happening is if the healthy starting pitching can continue to give the club strong efforts, carrying the injury-depleted lineup on their backs.

Trade Position: Sellers?
It appears that at this point the Twins will (or probably should) be sellers. At second glance, however, they may be better off sitting on their hands (even past the trade deadline). Their top trade candidates – Cuddyer, Kubel and Capps (impending free agents) have been moving up the Elias player rankings. Why is this important? Bill Smith's trading record is an absolute train wreck, and the fact that the Twins could land two or three extra first round compensatory picks if these players leave via free agency probably makes standing pat a more logical decision.

As of a couple weeks ago (before winning 15 of 17), I felt that Cuddyer needed to be traded. Not because of his play, but because of his contract situation and the fact that he wasn’t even ranked as a Type B player at the time. Now, after a month of being one of the hottest hitters in baseball, Cuddyer has leapt into Type A status. Jason Kubel is sitting at the top end of the Type B plateau, only percentage points away (just below Tampa Bay’s Matt Joyce) from qualifying as a Type A player. One could easily argue that had Kubel been healthy the last 2-3 weeks and continued to produce at his current rate, he would be in the Type A class. Matt Capps, even without a great first half, is right in the middle of the Type A relief pitcher rankings.

Just a refresher for those not familiar with the Type A/Type B rankings – this link explains it well.

Why do the Type A/Type B rankings matter when determining whether a team will trade a player or not? Well, let's look at Cuddyer, now considered a Type A player. If the Phillies (a team that reportedly has interest in Cuddyer) want to trade for him and the prospects they offer are rated lower than what the Twins scouts think they could get in next year’s first round, then they might decline the trade. Conversely, if Cuddyer was still ranked lower than Type B and he declined arbitration, the Twins would not receive any compensation this offseason if he were to decline arbitration and walk.

The Twins can actually use this information as leverage when negotiating deals. Going back to the Cuddyer/Phillies example – The Twins can argue that the Phillies are getting Cuddyer for the rest of this season, plus they’re getting a 2012 first rounder if he declines arbitration and signs elsewhere.

So, do I think the Twins should trade Cuddyer, Capps or Kubel? If they can find an aggressive buyer, as other teams have in recent years, then sure. However, I don't think they should sell just because these players are impending free agents. Bill Smith has had a lot more success building this team’s minor league system (see Gibson, Hicks, Gutierrez) than he has making major league trades. Stay tuned — later this week I'll be breaking down recent comparable trades for these three players, as well as other possible Twins who could be moved at the deadline.

3 Up, 3 Down: 6/27/10

TRENDING UP

Carl Pavano is quickly becoming the 'stached savior of your slumping Minnesota Twins. While his soup-strainer is all the rage amongst Hennepin Ave. hipsters, it's his right arm that's kept the sinking ship afloat in recent weeks. In his last two outings, Pavano has spun complete game gems, outdueling aces Roy Halladay and Johan Santana. With the Tigers lurking and the White Sox surging, Pavano gave up just one earned run in those 18 invaluable innings, keeping the bullpen fresh and the Twins in first place. His brilliance prevented a bad (3-6) road trip from turning disastrous. It's remarkable to think that, coming into the season, Pavano was the biggest question mark in the rotation. Closing in on the All Star break, Pavano has been the clear-cut MVP of the starting staff. He leads Twins' starters in Wins, Innings Pitched, Quality Starts, and WHIP. There's no glitz, just a rock steady 3.33 ERA and an appetite for innings. He's pitching deep into games, which is reflected in his unbelievable 15 decisions in 15 starts. In fact, he's gone at least seven innings in nine of his last ten starts. At 34, Pavano is having his best season since his 2004 breakout with the Marlins. That season set him up for his big payday with the Yankees, before injuries and a Tommy John surgery derailed his career. Finally healthy, Pavano is back on track and appears to have found a home in Minnesota. He's pitching on a one-year deal, and extending his contract has to be a growing priority for the Twins.

Justin Morneau is heating up again. No lengthy introduction necessary here. The perennial AL MVP candidate batted .412 on the 8-game road trip, including his first two home runs since June 4. Morneau can carry this team for weeks at a time, and getting him dialed in could be just what the doctor ordered for this slumping squad.

Between his own horrid start, and the emergence of fellow corner outfielder Delmon Young, Jason Kubel has flown under the radar. Slowly but surely, Kubel's finally hitting his stride. His June .542 Slugging Pct. leads the team, and he's hit .313 with 4 home runs for the month. Now that interleague play is over and the DH is back in play, expect even more at-bats for the Yankee killer.

TRENDING DOWN

Orlando Hudson's return to the lineup was supposed to reignite the offense. Batting .308 from the two-hole prior to his wrist injury, Hudson has been ice cold since his return from the Disabled List. The hope amongst Twins fans is that his .147 Batting Average and 11 strikeouts in the eight games since his return are a product of rust, not lingering injury. 

I featured Nick Blackburn in my 6/15/10 report, and while I'd prefer to see fresh blood with each installment of 3 Up, 3 Down, he's earned the dishonor of a repeat appearance. Blackburn's June has gone from putrid to downright unacceptable in his last two starts, where he's been shelled for 13 earned runs in just 5.1 innings. Where Pavano has saved the bullpen, Blackburn continues to deplete it. Trade speculation previously reserved for a closer or a third basemen is now focused squarely on Cliff Lee, or another starter, to replace Blackburn in the rotation. He's averaged just three innings in his five June starts, and his ERA for the month has climbed to over a dozen. 

Coming into the season, the Twins had three corner outfielders for two spots, and had signed Jim Thome for platoon DH work. Of the group, Michael Cuddyer was thought to be the only one who could expect regular at-bats. Fast forward to late June, and Cuddyer may now be an infielder. This is not a demotion, and to be fair, Cuddyer deserves a ton of credit for his willingness to help the team out by moving to third base. Nick Punto is terrible offensively, Brendan Harris is terrible in general, and Danny Valencia is terribly overhyped, so Cuddyer's selflessness in an era of Albert Haynesworth's is refreshing. With that said, Cuddyer continues to have an uninspiring year at the plate. Batting .259, he's well off last year's pace with just 7 Home Runs and 33 RBI's. I've been openly critical of Ron Gardenhire's insistence on keeping Cuddyer planted in the heart of the order as the right handed threat, seeing as how he isn't really a threat, and how Delmon Young has vastly outperformed him all season. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Gardenhire's insufferable loyalty to "his guys" is costing this team runs. At this point, I'm not overly concerned by Cuddyer's offensive performance, as much as I am annoyed.

Unfortunately, I had a much easier time finding "Downers" than "Uppers" this time around. That will happen after a .333 road trip. So 3 Down Honorable Mentions go out to Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Ron Gardenhire, and Joe Mauer. With an important 7-game home stand against Detroit and Tampa starting tomorrow, I'm hoping my next report will be more enjoyable.

3 Up, 3 Down: 6/15/10

TRENDING UP
I feel compelled to kick off my 3 Up, 3 Down series with a player who I’ve ripped more than anyone over the last two seasons. Delmon Young came to the Twins in November of 2007 with a ton of hype. He also brought with him a poor work ethic, a reputation for being uncoachable, the stigma of an epic bat toss, and a lot of baby fat. Watching Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett excel for the Rays over the last two seasons, while the key cog in our side of the deal inexplicably struggled, was beyond frustrating for Twins fans. Despite a surprisingly strong finish to 2009 and worlds of untapped potential, many fans were ready to cut their losses and move on without Young, like we did Carlos Gomez. Our power-swinging prospect had morphed into, at best, an undisciplined seeing-eye singles hitter. And, what was worse, he didn’t seem to care.

But something clicked last offseason. Young showed up for Spring Training 30 pounds lighter. He started showing dedication to improvement. He hustled. He listened. He cared. Yes, Delmon Young suddenly appeared to have become a professional. Building upon his late ’09 upswing and a newfound commitment, Young has emerged as the Twins’ most dangerous right handed bat throughout the first half of 2010. Batting .295 and slugging .500, he tops fellow right-handed masher Michael Cuddyer in both categories. In 45 less at bats, he also bests Cuddyer in Home Runs (8), Doubles (15), and RBI (41). It's worth noting that he trails only Justin Morneau in the RBI department (43). It doesn't end there. He's drastically cut down his strikeouts. He's having good at bats; he's already taken more walks than all of last year. He's hitting in the clutch. And while his fielding is still suspect, he's covering more ground this year since unhooking the plow. This is the player we thought we were getting in 2007, and as of right now, he's entrenched in a battle with Francisco Liriano and John Rauch for the best surprise of 2010.

After a shaky May, Liriano is dialed back in. In his two June starts, he's struck out 21 in 15 innings, with a 1.20 ERA. His 87 strikeouts currently rank 5th in the Majors, and he leads the four pitchers in front of him in K/9 and ERA.

John Rauch doesn't have Joe Nathan's stuff. Not even close. But he's done everything the Twins have asked of him. What he lacks in a dominant strikeout pitch, he more than makes up for with a perfect closer's mentality. He has poise, he's fearless, and he has a short memory. This is something for which I've been openly critical of Nathan, especially with last season's stretch-run tailspin that snowballed into the playoffs. So while murmurs of an "upgrade" via trade continue to swirl through Twins Territory, Rauch's 16 saves are tied for the league lead, and his 2.52 ERA remains stellar. He's getting the most out of limited talent, and for that I applaud him.

TRENDING DOWN
After a 5-0 May, Nick Blackburn has gone the other way. His three June starts have been 13.1 innings of batting practice (an 8.10 ERA). Gross, but not all that surprising. Blackburn is an average pitcher, and a pitch-to-contact type who can't strike anyone out, so there was bound to be a correction. It's just never pretty when it happens.

I know, it's too soon to be hard on Trevor Plouffe. But after two hits in his debut, he's gone 1 for 21, and has looked a bit lost at Shorstop filling in for the injured J.J. Hardy. A former first round draft pick, I guess my criticism is more a cumulation of failed expectations and disappoinments. Selected 20th overall in 2004, Plouffe has hovered around mediocrity every step of the way. I have an easier time picturing him as the classic Twins' fringe AAA/MLB middle infielder than I do as an everyday Shortstop. He certainly doesn't have the limitless upside of Miguel Angel Sano, who's replaced Plouffe as the organization's new "Shortstop of the Future."

I feel a little guilty mentioning Denard Span here. He's so solid and fundamentally sound in every facet of the game, which makes me think that this funk will be over soon. Good mechanics usually prevent long slumps, and his .204 June BA is surely a mirage. In fact, I'd have let it slide, if not for his more troubling .235 June OBP. With just 2 walks in 51 June plate appearances, the Twins simply need better from their table setter. I'm not worried.

You may have noticed that I omitted Jesse Crain from this list. It's just too easy. He's out of options, and I'm out of bourbon, so we're calling it a night. Check back in the coming weeks for more 3 Up, 3 Down Twins analysis.