Minnesota Twins' 2nd Half Outlook

By Matt Tschida

REASONS FOR HOPE

2nd Half History
The Twins are 6.5 games out of first place, which seems like a large hill to climb (and it really is), but last season they were 3.5 games back at the break and finished 6.0 games ahead of second place Chicago (a 9.5 game swing). In 2006, they were 12.0 games out at the break, and ended up winning the division by a game. It’s mathematically unlikely, but the Twins have shown the ability to erase second half deficits in the Gardenhire era.

Injuries
The Twins have only fielded their “A” lineup in a handful of games the entire year. If the offense can return to full strength, this lineup should be as productive as it was last year when they finished 6th in the league in runs (they currently rank 25th). A fairly consistent pitching staff (with the exception of Francisco Liriano) coupled with a more productive offense would certainly add victories in the second half.

Trade Help?
The Twins really don’t have many holes offensively, so assuming the division is still within reach at the trade deadline, they’ll likely look for pitching help.

Alexi Casilla has been providing more consistent at bats, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (now healthy) has begun to find his swing, so their spots are okay for now. Danny Valencia has struggled for stretches at the plate, but he's notched 10 homeruns and 46 RBI; the Twins are going to ride out this season (at least) with him as their third baseman.

Outside of Liriano's inconsistency, the starting rotation has been relatively dependable this season. As a whole, the starters have gone 33-32 with a 3.98 ERA. Clearly, the team's biggest holes are in the bullpen, where as a unit they've lost 16 games and amassed a 5.01 ERA. Glen Perkins has become the only trustworthy option. Matt Capps has been shaky, and before his return from the DL Joe Nathan was unsettled. The Twins desperately need another right handed setup man, or even closer, so they can move Capps into a setup role. I hope the Twins don’t settle for Capps as the closer, because he's putting up much worse numbers than John Rauch did to this point last season, and they felt he needed to be replaced:

Capps 2011 through July 13: 4.42 ERA, 15-21 Saves/Opportunities
Rauch 2010 through July 13: 2.38 ERA, 20-24 Saves/Opportunities


REASONS FOR CONCERN

The Bullpen
One of the strengths of last year’s team has now become its biggest weakness, and it should come as no surprise since the club let Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Brian Fuentes walk during free agency without adding any significant replacements. As noted earlier, the bullpen has already lost this team 16 games, where as last year's pen only lost 18 games throughout the entire season. There’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than losing a lead late in a ballgame, and we've already seen it way too much this season. If the Twins expect to make a run at the division, Bill Smith needs to make a significant trade to bring in a legitimate late-inning right handed reliever.

Injuries
Because of their unpredictable nature, "injuries" are cause for both hope and concern. This roster has been decimated by injuries, and they'll need Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel to return healthy and productive. It also goes without saying that other regulars need stay out of the trainer's office, which sounds simple enough but has proven to be a major obstacle this season.

Francisco Liriano
Liriano has been the team’s most inconsistent starter through the first half of the year. On one hand he nearly pitched his way out of the rotation. On the other, he tossed a no-hitter and threatened for a second. The Twins don’t need Liriano to be lights out in the second half, they just need him to be consistent. If he can string together a streak of six or seven quality starts, it would really his confidence going forward, and the team's chances of making a push for the division.

Twins' Notes and Thoughts...

By Matt Tschida

Mauer at First Base

Joe Mauer made his first start at first base yesterday, and it went really well. He converted every chance, plus he made a great pick on a low throw from Danny Valencia. At the plate, he reminded us how valuable he is to the lineup, going 3-5 with 2 RBI. Mauer has made it clear that he's still a catcher, but is open to playing first base occasionally.

Instead of Mauer catching five games a week, DHing once, and resting once, I'd like to see him catch four-five days a week, play first base once, and DH once. This would allow him about an extra game a week, while still keeping his knees, back and legs fresh. So, what will happen once Morneau returns from the DL? Well, Mauer's weekly first base start gives Morneau a chance to DH or rest. This plan could potentially keep the Twins' two most important hitters in the lineup more regularly than the last two seasons.


Cuddyer on Fire
Michael Cuddyer is flat out on fire, returning to his 2009 form with a .325 BA, 10 HRs and 36 RBI since May 1. Like I've mentioned in previous posts, if the Twins are indeed sellers (which is looking less and less likely), they'd need to get a top prospect for Cuddyer. Otherwise, they're best off keeping him and picking up the compensation picks in the offseason. With the way the Indians and Tigers have been treading water lately, I think it would be a mistake to trade Cuddyer unless the Twins fall something like 12+ games back before the trade deadline.

If the Twins can make up four games (from 8.0 to 4.0) by July 31, then they should be in good shape. I realize that's a lot to ask for in 21 games, but they did cut the lead down to 8.0 games after being 16.5 back on June 1. They will likely get Morneau back, and hopefully 100% healthy for the first time in a year, so they'll need Cuddyer to balance the lineup versus left-handed pitching. Cuddyer is crushing lefties (.383 BA), and the only other Twins' regular hitting above .300 versus lefties is Danny Valencia (.341).

Bullpen Situation
Matt Capps has really been up and down all season, and hopefully he hit his low point after blowing a 7-4 lead against Milwaukee. He had an average April (3.55 ERA), a bad May (0-2 with a 6.35 ERA), and a great June (1-0, 6 saves, 0.90 ERA). The Twins need Capps to be strong over the next couple of months to have a chance, filling the void of a reliable right handed reliever. They are hoping Joe Nathan continues his return to form, but until he gets consistent work, that's still an unknown.

Glen Perkins has grabbed his opportunity by the horns. Before the season, I felt like Perkins had a chance to slide into Brian Duensing's vacated bullpen role. Perkins has done that and more, and he's currently their hottest, most trustworthy reliever.

Alex Burnett had been getting a lot of run lately, and he'd only given up hits in two of his previous 12 outings prior to Wednesday’s disaster. Going forward, his role is undefined and unpromising.

Joe Nathan is, as he's been all season, the wildcard of this bullpen. He's been great since coming off the DL, striking out five and allowing just one run on two hits in 5.0 innings. If he can return to form, the pen has potential to be solid (not great) with Capps/Nathan being used at the end of games from the right side, and Perkins and (to a lesser extent) Mijares from the left.

As the rest of the bullpen goes, there really isn’t much to talk about. Anthony Swarzak is best suited for long relief/spot starting. Jose Mijares is fine when he throws strikes, bad when he doesn’t, and he's falling behind far too many hitters this year. Phil Dumatrait is about ready to be (or at least should be) sent packing to make room for Chuck James. James has been solid at AAA, and did well in his brief stint earlier this season with the Twins. For those wondering, Dumatrait likely would have been sent down instead of James, but James had options to go to AAA that Dumatrait didn’t have. Another name to keep tabs on at AAA is former 1st round pick Carlos Gutierrez (2-2, 3.88 ERA, 38 K, 25 BB, in 48.2 IP). If he can string together a couple weeks of solid performances, he could be brought up. Gardy has publicly said he likes the kid, but management is conserving him in the minors to keep his MLB service time in check.

Minnesota Twins Trade Comps

By Matt Tschida

Building off of Monday's post, I've dug up a few comparable trades from the past couple years that the Twins could use as a model at this year’s trade deadline (if they end up sellers). I will also go through and discuss some other players who might possibly be moved before July 31.

COMPARABLE TRADES

A comparable trade involving Michael Cuddyer would be the move the Indians made in 2008 when they sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers for top catching prospect Carlos Santana. The Indians included cash in the deal, something the Twins would also need to do given the price of Cuddyer’s contract. Another similar trade again involved the Indians, when in 2009 when they traded Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez (now a potential All-Star closer) and a player to be named later.

How about a comparable trade involving Jason Kubel? Last year Houston traded Lance Berkman to the Yankees for Mark Melancon (who's doing a nice job closing this year) and infield prospect Jimmy Paredes. I think Kubel’s value is higher than Berkman’s--he’s having a much better season than Berkman was, he's six years younger and his contract is reasonable given his production. If the Twins are planning on trading Kubel, they can expect better return than what Houston received.

Jim Thome might provide similar trade value to Kubel if he can stay healthy for a while, although he isn't a Type B free agent, so he wouldn’t net his new team a compensatory draft pick if he returned somewhere else next year. Still, I think Texas (who made a hard push for him last offseason) is a team that would be very interested.

We don't have to look far to find a comparable Matt Capps swap, as the Twins traded away top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Capps just last season. Given that the Twins gave away such a high prospect for Capps, and that he's a Type A free agent, look for the team to stand pat. They're highly unlikely to land a prospect of Ramos' caliber.

OTHER TRADE CANDIDATES

If he can recover quickly from this current injury and put together a solid stretch, Delmon Young would have some value. He's under team control for another year, and if the Twins can’t find a deal at the deadline he'll likely be moved this winter. Ben Revere looks like he’s just about ready to stick, and he's much better defensively. Even if the Twins creep into the race and become buyers, they could use Delmon as trade bait in an attempt to patch the leaky bullpen. They could also use him to build their minor league system with a decent middle infield prospect or two.

If Carl Pavano can put together a solid month he'll have some value in what's looking like a weak starting pitching market. His contract for next season isn’t terrible for an innings eater with an ERA around 4.00. He was brought in to be the veteran presence for this team, but Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have been around long enough to fill that role. For comparison, last season the Indians sent Jake Westbrook to St. Louis for pitching prospects Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood (from the Padres) in a three-team deal.

Both Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are signed for at least another year (Blackburn's signed through 2013), so they probably won't be shopped. However, if the Twins are offered a great prospect, it might be hard to turn down given that Kyle Gibson should be ready to step into the rotation by the end of the year.

Two players who have virtually no trade value are Joe Nathan and Kevin Slowey. They've both been injured or ineffective for most of the year, and Nathan’s contract certainly hurts his trade value as well. The hope is that Nathan will build on Tuesday night's performance and become the reliable right hander the team needs in the bullpen. Slowey's value is slumping, but the Twins are still likely do everything they can to eliminate him as a distraction.

The one player I haven’t discussed at all is Francisco Liriano. Unless someone gives the Twins a great offer, it will be difficult to trade him at this point. He has been the Twins least consistent starting pitcher--he's essentially been either great or terrible. Liriano's under team control for one more year, so it will be interesting to see how he finishes the season (assuming the Twins don’t trade him) and what the team does next offseason. Remember, the Yankees were all over him this spring.

Even if the Twins can push into contention over the next couple weeks, there are everyday players (Delmon Young and any starting pitcher) that could be moved to make room for younger players (Revere and Gibson), who appear ready enough to join the chase.