Minnesota Twins' 2nd Half Outlook

By Matt Tschida

REASONS FOR HOPE

2nd Half History
The Twins are 6.5 games out of first place, which seems like a large hill to climb (and it really is), but last season they were 3.5 games back at the break and finished 6.0 games ahead of second place Chicago (a 9.5 game swing). In 2006, they were 12.0 games out at the break, and ended up winning the division by a game. It’s mathematically unlikely, but the Twins have shown the ability to erase second half deficits in the Gardenhire era.

Injuries
The Twins have only fielded their “A” lineup in a handful of games the entire year. If the offense can return to full strength, this lineup should be as productive as it was last year when they finished 6th in the league in runs (they currently rank 25th). A fairly consistent pitching staff (with the exception of Francisco Liriano) coupled with a more productive offense would certainly add victories in the second half.

Trade Help?
The Twins really don’t have many holes offensively, so assuming the division is still within reach at the trade deadline, they’ll likely look for pitching help.

Alexi Casilla has been providing more consistent at bats, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (now healthy) has begun to find his swing, so their spots are okay for now. Danny Valencia has struggled for stretches at the plate, but he's notched 10 homeruns and 46 RBI; the Twins are going to ride out this season (at least) with him as their third baseman.

Outside of Liriano's inconsistency, the starting rotation has been relatively dependable this season. As a whole, the starters have gone 33-32 with a 3.98 ERA. Clearly, the team's biggest holes are in the bullpen, where as a unit they've lost 16 games and amassed a 5.01 ERA. Glen Perkins has become the only trustworthy option. Matt Capps has been shaky, and before his return from the DL Joe Nathan was unsettled. The Twins desperately need another right handed setup man, or even closer, so they can move Capps into a setup role. I hope the Twins don’t settle for Capps as the closer, because he's putting up much worse numbers than John Rauch did to this point last season, and they felt he needed to be replaced:

Capps 2011 through July 13: 4.42 ERA, 15-21 Saves/Opportunities
Rauch 2010 through July 13: 2.38 ERA, 20-24 Saves/Opportunities


REASONS FOR CONCERN

The Bullpen
One of the strengths of last year’s team has now become its biggest weakness, and it should come as no surprise since the club let Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Brian Fuentes walk during free agency without adding any significant replacements. As noted earlier, the bullpen has already lost this team 16 games, where as last year's pen only lost 18 games throughout the entire season. There’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than losing a lead late in a ballgame, and we've already seen it way too much this season. If the Twins expect to make a run at the division, Bill Smith needs to make a significant trade to bring in a legitimate late-inning right handed reliever.

Injuries
Because of their unpredictable nature, "injuries" are cause for both hope and concern. This roster has been decimated by injuries, and they'll need Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel to return healthy and productive. It also goes without saying that other regulars need stay out of the trainer's office, which sounds simple enough but has proven to be a major obstacle this season.

Francisco Liriano
Liriano has been the team’s most inconsistent starter through the first half of the year. On one hand he nearly pitched his way out of the rotation. On the other, he tossed a no-hitter and threatened for a second. The Twins don’t need Liriano to be lights out in the second half, they just need him to be consistent. If he can string together a streak of six or seven quality starts, it would really his confidence going forward, and the team's chances of making a push for the division.

The Pinnacle: A Hiatus From My Hiatus

I've been a die hard Minnesota sports fan for 28 years. It's hard to remember a more euphoric day.

The "Super Freak" is coming home. Like many of you, I've had an empty feeling in my heart ever since Randy Moss left the Vikings. Minnesota's last blackout was the final game of the 1997 season. Moss' arrival in 1998 single-handedly rejuvenated the fan base, and the Vikings have sold out every game since. Randy was an outcast, but he was our outcast. He scored a ridiculous 90 touchdowns in his seven seasons in purple. He's one of the all-time greats, and at 33, he can still out-run and out-jump any secondary in the league. His return to Winter Park is surreal -- I've been pinching myself for the last 12 hours, and I'm still not waking up. It's like Randy Moss has returned from the dead. He'll join an offense that features the legendary Brett Favre, and dynamic playmakers Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and eventually, Sidney Rice. Combine that with a topflight defense, and this may be the best 1-2 team in the history of the NFL. A destiny that just yesterday seemed derailed is now stronger than ever. Favre has been pining to play with Moss for years, and Zygi Wilf has made the stars align.

Impossibly overshadowed are our Central Division Champion Minnesota Twins, who welcome the New York Yankees to the playoff christening of Target Field in prime time tonight. The Bronx Bombers have been the pinstriped monkey on Minnesota's back, but this appears to be the Twins' best chance to overtake them in the Ron Gardenhire era. New York has chinks in their armor, and no past Gardenhire playoff roster has had this depth, firepower, or veteran savvy. It's our time to return to the Fall Classic.

To think, I was planning on being productive today.

Legends of the Fall

This past Monday morning started out like most other Monday mornings. After hitting the snooze a half dozen times and fending off a couple wicked elbows, I was up and at it, wiping the weekend out of my eyes. My wife had talked me into buying our two Pomeranians by committing to morning and winter dog duties. As I fumbled for my glasses, the pups waited anxiously for me at the door, a five-year routine we started five days after their adoption. I pick my battles. I'll cash in my super-husband points throughout the fantasy football season. After overfilling my cup of coffee, we were out the door.

I immediately noticed that something was different. To my delight, there was a cool bite to the air. I knew it all too well; I'd missed it. For a brief moment, I let my mind drift back a decade to the days of pep rallies and post routes. I quickly have to remind myself that, as a washed up 28-year old, my morning conditioning now consists of chasing my dog, who's chasing my other dog, who's chasing a rabbit through the woods. It's a pathetic existence. I'm sure you can relate. But I digress - back to that crisp morning chill. Like a double rainbow, it signifies something much bigger to me. What does it mean? Simple. It represents the culmination of a long baseball season intersecting with a promising new football season. Fellow sports fans, welcome to the most wonderful time of the year.

I'd be hard-pressed to recall an autumn that had more hope attached to it than the one we're entering. Our Twins are pulling away down the stretch, and for the first time under Ron Gardenhire's management, they have a realistic chance of advancing past the Yankees and making a serious World Series run. After losing 12 straight to the Bronx Bombers, they've split their last four, and this time around they have the offensive firepower to compete. Just down the road, the Vikings are returning all 22 starters from a final four squad. They're on the short list of Super Bowl contenders, and Brett Favre has reignited the locker room and the fan base. I can confidently say in mid-August that Minnesota has two legitimate title contenders, and their paths are overlapping right before us. But it's even more than that. It's the new stadium and the old quarterback. It's the hometown hero and the Metrodome magic. It's the unfamiliar national spotlight, and the seemingly never-ending optimism for "next year" giving way to "it's our time." Yes, the stars are aligning, and for once, other cities envy us. If just for one year, we're like... like... Boston.

Don't take this for granted, Minnesota. Make this fall about friends and family, beers and brats, and the teams that we love. Take some time to soak it in. Take some time to make some memories. Opportunities like this don't come often enough for us; we have to make them last. Sub-zero temperatures, and worse, mediocrity, are always right around the corner.

3 Up, 3 Down: 6/27/10

TRENDING UP

Carl Pavano is quickly becoming the 'stached savior of your slumping Minnesota Twins. While his soup-strainer is all the rage amongst Hennepin Ave. hipsters, it's his right arm that's kept the sinking ship afloat in recent weeks. In his last two outings, Pavano has spun complete game gems, outdueling aces Roy Halladay and Johan Santana. With the Tigers lurking and the White Sox surging, Pavano gave up just one earned run in those 18 invaluable innings, keeping the bullpen fresh and the Twins in first place. His brilliance prevented a bad (3-6) road trip from turning disastrous. It's remarkable to think that, coming into the season, Pavano was the biggest question mark in the rotation. Closing in on the All Star break, Pavano has been the clear-cut MVP of the starting staff. He leads Twins' starters in Wins, Innings Pitched, Quality Starts, and WHIP. There's no glitz, just a rock steady 3.33 ERA and an appetite for innings. He's pitching deep into games, which is reflected in his unbelievable 15 decisions in 15 starts. In fact, he's gone at least seven innings in nine of his last ten starts. At 34, Pavano is having his best season since his 2004 breakout with the Marlins. That season set him up for his big payday with the Yankees, before injuries and a Tommy John surgery derailed his career. Finally healthy, Pavano is back on track and appears to have found a home in Minnesota. He's pitching on a one-year deal, and extending his contract has to be a growing priority for the Twins.

Justin Morneau is heating up again. No lengthy introduction necessary here. The perennial AL MVP candidate batted .412 on the 8-game road trip, including his first two home runs since June 4. Morneau can carry this team for weeks at a time, and getting him dialed in could be just what the doctor ordered for this slumping squad.

Between his own horrid start, and the emergence of fellow corner outfielder Delmon Young, Jason Kubel has flown under the radar. Slowly but surely, Kubel's finally hitting his stride. His June .542 Slugging Pct. leads the team, and he's hit .313 with 4 home runs for the month. Now that interleague play is over and the DH is back in play, expect even more at-bats for the Yankee killer.

TRENDING DOWN

Orlando Hudson's return to the lineup was supposed to reignite the offense. Batting .308 from the two-hole prior to his wrist injury, Hudson has been ice cold since his return from the Disabled List. The hope amongst Twins fans is that his .147 Batting Average and 11 strikeouts in the eight games since his return are a product of rust, not lingering injury. 

I featured Nick Blackburn in my 6/15/10 report, and while I'd prefer to see fresh blood with each installment of 3 Up, 3 Down, he's earned the dishonor of a repeat appearance. Blackburn's June has gone from putrid to downright unacceptable in his last two starts, where he's been shelled for 13 earned runs in just 5.1 innings. Where Pavano has saved the bullpen, Blackburn continues to deplete it. Trade speculation previously reserved for a closer or a third basemen is now focused squarely on Cliff Lee, or another starter, to replace Blackburn in the rotation. He's averaged just three innings in his five June starts, and his ERA for the month has climbed to over a dozen. 

Coming into the season, the Twins had three corner outfielders for two spots, and had signed Jim Thome for platoon DH work. Of the group, Michael Cuddyer was thought to be the only one who could expect regular at-bats. Fast forward to late June, and Cuddyer may now be an infielder. This is not a demotion, and to be fair, Cuddyer deserves a ton of credit for his willingness to help the team out by moving to third base. Nick Punto is terrible offensively, Brendan Harris is terrible in general, and Danny Valencia is terribly overhyped, so Cuddyer's selflessness in an era of Albert Haynesworth's is refreshing. With that said, Cuddyer continues to have an uninspiring year at the plate. Batting .259, he's well off last year's pace with just 7 Home Runs and 33 RBI's. I've been openly critical of Ron Gardenhire's insistence on keeping Cuddyer planted in the heart of the order as the right handed threat, seeing as how he isn't really a threat, and how Delmon Young has vastly outperformed him all season. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Gardenhire's insufferable loyalty to "his guys" is costing this team runs. At this point, I'm not overly concerned by Cuddyer's offensive performance, as much as I am annoyed.

Unfortunately, I had a much easier time finding "Downers" than "Uppers" this time around. That will happen after a .333 road trip. So 3 Down Honorable Mentions go out to Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Ron Gardenhire, and Joe Mauer. With an important 7-game home stand against Detroit and Tampa starting tomorrow, I'm hoping my next report will be more enjoyable.