Twins' Notes and Thoughts... 8/30/11

By Matt Tschida

Mauer’s Positional Value

While sitting at Target Field the other day, I overheard a couple Twins fans regurgitating something they'd undoubtedly gleaned from the local media—“Mauer’s value is behind the plate... he's only worth $23M if he stays at catcher.”

I chuckled to myself. For this to be correct, they'd have to believe that Mauer is truly nothing more than a .300-ish singles hitter.

The same fans went on to say that Mauer changes the game defensively. As I've mentioned in previous posts, Mauer is highly overrated defensively. Is he a solid defensive catcher? Yes, but he is certainly not elite. He has a great arm, but he's not quick out of his crouch to block balls—he's been able to get by at times by "picking" rather than blocking. According to www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Mauer ranked 27th in block percentage in 2009, blocking only 89.1% of possible chances, and just 86% in 2008. I wasn’t able to locate anything more recent, but it’s safe to say he hasn’t jumped up 25+ spots into the top 5. When you add that to Mauer’s 28th-ranked 2011 catcher ERA of 4.31 (Rene Rivera’s catcher ERA, to put this into perspective, is 3.31), you see how overrated Mauer is behind the plate.

In theory, Mauer is more valuable playing catcher because of the offensive advantage he provides at the position. However, when he's not in the lineup that advantage is moot. The bottom line is that the Twins need a healthy Joe Mauer in the lineup. He is not an elite defensive catcher anyways, so if the Twins could have him play one game a week at first base, one in the outfield and one at DH, he'd have a better chance of staying healthy for an entire season. Eventually he could move permanently to one of those positions once the Twins find a catcher capable of holding his own both offensively and defensively.

People need to remember how spectacular Mauer was offensively the season before he signed the huge deal. Here are his 2009 numbers: .365/.444/.587 with 28 HR and 96 RBI in 138 games. I believe that those numbers, coming from any position, are worthy of $23M/year. For example, one of this season’s top MVP candidates, Adrian Gonzalez, signed with the Red Sox for about $22M/year and he's hitting .345/.406/.559. Moreover, he plays first base, an easier spot to find offense. Maybe Mauer can repeat those numbers while still playing catcher every day, but I would have a lot more confidence in him returning to form if he only had to catch 3-4 days a week—or if he didn’t catch at all.

Did Twins Make a Big Mistake By Not Trading Span?

Back at the trade deadline, the most talked-about rumor involving the Twins was a trade that headlined Denard Span going to the Washington Nationals in return for closer Drew Storen. I was one of the few people in favor of the deal because of Storen's huge upside, and because of the Twins' glut of outfielders on their current roster and in the farm system.

Many of those opposed to the trade were pointing to Bill Smith's Matt Capps-for-Wilson Ramos debacle, simply because both Capps and Storen happened to be Washington closers. False. Drew Storen was taken 10th overall in the 2009 draft, has been a top reliever ever since he was brought to the majors, and is still only 24-years old. Matt Capps, on the other hand, has been very inconsistent throughout his major league career, and is not a proven closer.

Many people also questioned why you would trade an affordable solid everyday player for a closer. Storen would probably rank about the same among closers in the MLB as Span does among center fielders—both would rank around the top 10-15 at their position. What's more, a closer can have an impact on most games simply by the way the the rest of the bullpen can be structured. You can see how big of a difference a great bullpen makes when you consider how bad the Twins' bullpen has been this season. The 2010 Twins bullpen went 21-18 with a 3.49 ERA. This season, they're 15-22 with a 4.60 ERA. That’s a 5-game swing in the standings, and several more between the ears.

Another aspect of the trade that wasn’t really looked into at the time was Span’s health. His concussion is starting to mirror that of Justin Morneau’s situation last season, and with first-hand knowledge of this type of injury, it may have been wise to deal Span and let another organization deal with the symptoms. It has been said that these talks could heat back up this offseason, but I have my doubts given how long Span has been out. I would still be in favor of acquiring Storen for Span, but there is little chance of that. The alternative is standing pat with Span (assuming he comes around) and Ben Revere playing in the same outfield, which certainly isn’t a bad thing.

Minnesota Twins' 2nd Half Outlook

By Matt Tschida

REASONS FOR HOPE

2nd Half History
The Twins are 6.5 games out of first place, which seems like a large hill to climb (and it really is), but last season they were 3.5 games back at the break and finished 6.0 games ahead of second place Chicago (a 9.5 game swing). In 2006, they were 12.0 games out at the break, and ended up winning the division by a game. It’s mathematically unlikely, but the Twins have shown the ability to erase second half deficits in the Gardenhire era.

Injuries
The Twins have only fielded their “A” lineup in a handful of games the entire year. If the offense can return to full strength, this lineup should be as productive as it was last year when they finished 6th in the league in runs (they currently rank 25th). A fairly consistent pitching staff (with the exception of Francisco Liriano) coupled with a more productive offense would certainly add victories in the second half.

Trade Help?
The Twins really don’t have many holes offensively, so assuming the division is still within reach at the trade deadline, they’ll likely look for pitching help.

Alexi Casilla has been providing more consistent at bats, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (now healthy) has begun to find his swing, so their spots are okay for now. Danny Valencia has struggled for stretches at the plate, but he's notched 10 homeruns and 46 RBI; the Twins are going to ride out this season (at least) with him as their third baseman.

Outside of Liriano's inconsistency, the starting rotation has been relatively dependable this season. As a whole, the starters have gone 33-32 with a 3.98 ERA. Clearly, the team's biggest holes are in the bullpen, where as a unit they've lost 16 games and amassed a 5.01 ERA. Glen Perkins has become the only trustworthy option. Matt Capps has been shaky, and before his return from the DL Joe Nathan was unsettled. The Twins desperately need another right handed setup man, or even closer, so they can move Capps into a setup role. I hope the Twins don’t settle for Capps as the closer, because he's putting up much worse numbers than John Rauch did to this point last season, and they felt he needed to be replaced:

Capps 2011 through July 13: 4.42 ERA, 15-21 Saves/Opportunities
Rauch 2010 through July 13: 2.38 ERA, 20-24 Saves/Opportunities


REASONS FOR CONCERN

The Bullpen
One of the strengths of last year’s team has now become its biggest weakness, and it should come as no surprise since the club let Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Brian Fuentes walk during free agency without adding any significant replacements. As noted earlier, the bullpen has already lost this team 16 games, where as last year's pen only lost 18 games throughout the entire season. There’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than losing a lead late in a ballgame, and we've already seen it way too much this season. If the Twins expect to make a run at the division, Bill Smith needs to make a significant trade to bring in a legitimate late-inning right handed reliever.

Injuries
Because of their unpredictable nature, "injuries" are cause for both hope and concern. This roster has been decimated by injuries, and they'll need Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel to return healthy and productive. It also goes without saying that other regulars need stay out of the trainer's office, which sounds simple enough but has proven to be a major obstacle this season.

Francisco Liriano
Liriano has been the team’s most inconsistent starter through the first half of the year. On one hand he nearly pitched his way out of the rotation. On the other, he tossed a no-hitter and threatened for a second. The Twins don’t need Liriano to be lights out in the second half, they just need him to be consistent. If he can string together a streak of six or seven quality starts, it would really his confidence going forward, and the team's chances of making a push for the division.

Twins' Notes and Thoughts...

By Matt Tschida

Mauer at First Base

Joe Mauer made his first start at first base yesterday, and it went really well. He converted every chance, plus he made a great pick on a low throw from Danny Valencia. At the plate, he reminded us how valuable he is to the lineup, going 3-5 with 2 RBI. Mauer has made it clear that he's still a catcher, but is open to playing first base occasionally.

Instead of Mauer catching five games a week, DHing once, and resting once, I'd like to see him catch four-five days a week, play first base once, and DH once. This would allow him about an extra game a week, while still keeping his knees, back and legs fresh. So, what will happen once Morneau returns from the DL? Well, Mauer's weekly first base start gives Morneau a chance to DH or rest. This plan could potentially keep the Twins' two most important hitters in the lineup more regularly than the last two seasons.


Cuddyer on Fire
Michael Cuddyer is flat out on fire, returning to his 2009 form with a .325 BA, 10 HRs and 36 RBI since May 1. Like I've mentioned in previous posts, if the Twins are indeed sellers (which is looking less and less likely), they'd need to get a top prospect for Cuddyer. Otherwise, they're best off keeping him and picking up the compensation picks in the offseason. With the way the Indians and Tigers have been treading water lately, I think it would be a mistake to trade Cuddyer unless the Twins fall something like 12+ games back before the trade deadline.

If the Twins can make up four games (from 8.0 to 4.0) by July 31, then they should be in good shape. I realize that's a lot to ask for in 21 games, but they did cut the lead down to 8.0 games after being 16.5 back on June 1. They will likely get Morneau back, and hopefully 100% healthy for the first time in a year, so they'll need Cuddyer to balance the lineup versus left-handed pitching. Cuddyer is crushing lefties (.383 BA), and the only other Twins' regular hitting above .300 versus lefties is Danny Valencia (.341).

Bullpen Situation
Matt Capps has really been up and down all season, and hopefully he hit his low point after blowing a 7-4 lead against Milwaukee. He had an average April (3.55 ERA), a bad May (0-2 with a 6.35 ERA), and a great June (1-0, 6 saves, 0.90 ERA). The Twins need Capps to be strong over the next couple of months to have a chance, filling the void of a reliable right handed reliever. They are hoping Joe Nathan continues his return to form, but until he gets consistent work, that's still an unknown.

Glen Perkins has grabbed his opportunity by the horns. Before the season, I felt like Perkins had a chance to slide into Brian Duensing's vacated bullpen role. Perkins has done that and more, and he's currently their hottest, most trustworthy reliever.

Alex Burnett had been getting a lot of run lately, and he'd only given up hits in two of his previous 12 outings prior to Wednesday’s disaster. Going forward, his role is undefined and unpromising.

Joe Nathan is, as he's been all season, the wildcard of this bullpen. He's been great since coming off the DL, striking out five and allowing just one run on two hits in 5.0 innings. If he can return to form, the pen has potential to be solid (not great) with Capps/Nathan being used at the end of games from the right side, and Perkins and (to a lesser extent) Mijares from the left.

As the rest of the bullpen goes, there really isn’t much to talk about. Anthony Swarzak is best suited for long relief/spot starting. Jose Mijares is fine when he throws strikes, bad when he doesn’t, and he's falling behind far too many hitters this year. Phil Dumatrait is about ready to be (or at least should be) sent packing to make room for Chuck James. James has been solid at AAA, and did well in his brief stint earlier this season with the Twins. For those wondering, Dumatrait likely would have been sent down instead of James, but James had options to go to AAA that Dumatrait didn’t have. Another name to keep tabs on at AAA is former 1st round pick Carlos Gutierrez (2-2, 3.88 ERA, 38 K, 25 BB, in 48.2 IP). If he can string together a couple weeks of solid performances, he could be brought up. Gardy has publicly said he likes the kid, but management is conserving him in the minors to keep his MLB service time in check.

Weekend Recap and Trade Considerations

By Matt Tschida

After it appeared the Twins had figured a few things out, the past five games looked awfully similar to their early-season woes. While Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Scott Baker all pitched well enough to win, the offense (with many starters still out and Mauer and Nishioka still trying to find their timing) came up empty, scoring just eight runs during their five-game losing streak.

Is there still a glimmer of hope? I think so, but it’s fading fast, and the next 13 games will likely determine the fate of this season. Playing 21 of their next 25 games at home will finally even out the season home/road splits. To have a decent shot, the Twins will probably need to win at least nine of their remaining 13 games going into the break. Moreover, they'll likely need to scratch 17 or 18 wins out of this 25-game stretch. The only way I see this happening is if the healthy starting pitching can continue to give the club strong efforts, carrying the injury-depleted lineup on their backs.

Trade Position: Sellers?
It appears that at this point the Twins will (or probably should) be sellers. At second glance, however, they may be better off sitting on their hands (even past the trade deadline). Their top trade candidates – Cuddyer, Kubel and Capps (impending free agents) have been moving up the Elias player rankings. Why is this important? Bill Smith's trading record is an absolute train wreck, and the fact that the Twins could land two or three extra first round compensatory picks if these players leave via free agency probably makes standing pat a more logical decision.

As of a couple weeks ago (before winning 15 of 17), I felt that Cuddyer needed to be traded. Not because of his play, but because of his contract situation and the fact that he wasn’t even ranked as a Type B player at the time. Now, after a month of being one of the hottest hitters in baseball, Cuddyer has leapt into Type A status. Jason Kubel is sitting at the top end of the Type B plateau, only percentage points away (just below Tampa Bay’s Matt Joyce) from qualifying as a Type A player. One could easily argue that had Kubel been healthy the last 2-3 weeks and continued to produce at his current rate, he would be in the Type A class. Matt Capps, even without a great first half, is right in the middle of the Type A relief pitcher rankings.

Just a refresher for those not familiar with the Type A/Type B rankings – this link explains it well.

Why do the Type A/Type B rankings matter when determining whether a team will trade a player or not? Well, let's look at Cuddyer, now considered a Type A player. If the Phillies (a team that reportedly has interest in Cuddyer) want to trade for him and the prospects they offer are rated lower than what the Twins scouts think they could get in next year’s first round, then they might decline the trade. Conversely, if Cuddyer was still ranked lower than Type B and he declined arbitration, the Twins would not receive any compensation this offseason if he were to decline arbitration and walk.

The Twins can actually use this information as leverage when negotiating deals. Going back to the Cuddyer/Phillies example – The Twins can argue that the Phillies are getting Cuddyer for the rest of this season, plus they’re getting a 2012 first rounder if he declines arbitration and signs elsewhere.

So, do I think the Twins should trade Cuddyer, Capps or Kubel? If they can find an aggressive buyer, as other teams have in recent years, then sure. However, I don't think they should sell just because these players are impending free agents. Bill Smith has had a lot more success building this team’s minor league system (see Gibson, Hicks, Gutierrez) than he has making major league trades. Stay tuned — later this week I'll be breaking down recent comparable trades for these three players, as well as other possible Twins who could be moved at the deadline.