10 Reasons the Vikings Should Trade Adrian Peterson

Now that I've got your attention, let me explain myself before you go medieval on me in the comment section below. It's not going to happen. This is purely hypothetical -- NFL trades are rare, and the ongoing labor negotiations have put the world on hold anyways. Moreover, Vikings' ownership is well aware that Adrian Peterson is the only thing standing between a full house and a sea of empty blue seats. Or maroon bleachers. But just because it won't happen, that doesn't mean it shouldn't happen. The idea of taking a step backwards is obviously discouraging, but it may be necessary to reach the ultimate goal. Believe me, I've suffered through 29 years of Vikings-induced heartache, and I want nothing more than to see my team win a Super Bowl.

There's no denying that Peterson is a class act and a transcendent talent. I'm proud to have him on my favorite team. However, this franchise is headed in the wrong direction, and the "asset" of Adrian Peterson provides the Vikings with a unique opportunity to rebuild faster than most teams in their dire situation.

On the surface, trading one of your franchise's all-time greats is lunacy. In the next 2,000 words, I'll do my best to convince you that it's not.

10. A Decline Appears Imminent

Due to circumstances beyond his control, Peterson is set up for a drop-off in production. Without a legitimate threat under center, he'll regularly face eight and nine-man boxes, neutralizing his effectiveness. He was able to overcome this in his first two seasons (he averaged a combined 5.2 YPC in 2007 and 2008), but he was aided by an offensive line that featured Pro Bowl center Matt Birk and All-World left guard Steve Hutchinson. Birk departed before the 2009 season, and the 33-year old Hutchinson's play has deteriorated rapidly. Despite the offensive line's backslide, Brett Favre was able to keep defenses honest enough for Peterson to churn out a respectable 4.5 YPC over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, there's not a quarterback in the draft or on the open market capable of diverting defensive attention away from Peterson in 2011. Hence, opposing defenses will be afforded the luxury of pinning their ears back and swarming to Peterson, with little resistance from an increasingly permeable offensive line.

9. He's Being Wasted

Piggybacking off my last point, Minnesota's once-feared offensive line has become a liability. Right tackle Phil Loadholt regressed in his sophomore season. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie plays when he wants to play. Left guard Steve Hutchinson, when healthy, is a shell of his former self. Center John Sullivan has been overmatched every step of the way, and right guard continues to be patched together by backup-caliber talent. Games are won in the trenches, so what's the point of shelling out top dollar for an elite running back when your offensive line is constantly moving backwards? Perhaps Barry Sanders could best answer that question -- it's nonsensical. The Vikings have put the cart before the horse.

8. Sell High

It's a basic economic principle. Peterson's put to rest the injury concerns that followed him from the University of Oklahoma to Minnesota, and last season he righted his fumbling woes. He has four Pro Bowl seasons under his belt, and plenty of good football ahead of him. His value has never been higher, so trading him now would maximize his return in a trade. The timing is perfect -- next season he'll be a year older, and as I previously speculated, he'll be coming off a down year (by his standards). If his value is peaking, as I suspect, then it has nowhere to go but down.

7. The Green Bay Packers

I realize it's difficult to accept for Vikings fans, but the Packers are the best team in the NFL. They're young, and their talent runs deep on both sides of the ball. With headliners like Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, the pieces are in place for a dynasty -- or at the very least, a long run of NFC North domination. You can say all you want about the Vikings taking the Pack down to the wire in their first 2010 meeting back on October 24, but from that night forward the teams have gone in opposite directions. It's become painfully obvious that the Vikings are no longer in the same class as Green Bay. Considering that the Packers will likely have a stranglehold on the division for the foreseeable future, and that both Chicago and Detroit are trending in the right direction, the Vikings will be facing an uphill battle just to earn a Wild Card birth the next handful of years. As it stands, the Vikings are an aging 6-10 team on the decline. Wouldn't you rather be a young 5-11 team on the rise?

6. It's a Passing League

The modern era of the NFL is all about passing. Look no further than the Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks of the last eight years: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. If you can envision the names Joe Webb, Jake Locker, or Vince Young on that list, then you might as well stop reading because I can't reach you. If you're still here, allow me do drop one more knowledge bomb. In 2006, Joseph Addai rushed for 1,081 yards, good for 18th among NFL running backs. Why is this significant? Because it's the most prolific season of any Super Bowl-winning running back in the last five years. The forward pass has officially replaced "three yards and a cloud of dust" as the winning formula in the NFL.

5. Wrong Recipe

Dating back to the early 1990's, every Super Bowl Champion has achieved excellence in at least two of three areas: quarterback, coaching, and defense. Last season the Packers had all three. Looking for exceptions to the rule? The 2000 Ravens and 2002 Buccaneers won with good coaching and historically good defenses. The 2007 Giants, perhaps? Sure, they're probably the weakest champion on paper in recent memory, but they fused experienced coaching, clutch quarterbacking, and a top-level defense. Show me the team in the last 20 years that won a Super Bowl with the combination of an elite running back, a mediocre defense, an inexperienced head coach, and a gaping hole at quarterback.

4. The Window Has Closed

It's time to start rebuilding. Sidney Rice and Ray Edwards are both at risk of walking via free agency, and despite the departure of Brett Favre and Pat Williams, this is still an old team. Key contributors Antoine Winfield, Steve Hutchinson, Jim Kleinsasser, Ben Leber, Bryant McKinnie, Visanthe Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, and Kevin Williams are all on the wrong side of 30. That core feels even older when you consider that there's no true "quick fix" quarterback available -- the Vikings will almost certainly be in developmental mode at the position next season. The time has come to begin stockpiling young talent, as the Packers, Bucs, and Chiefs have done in recent years. Instead of hovering around mediocrity with an unbalanced roster, the Vikings would be wise to break it down, take their lumps, and attempt to build it back up stronger and better than ever.

3. Running Backs Don't Last

According to the NFLPA, running backs have the shortest average career of any position in the NFL (just 2.57 years). Due to excessive wear and tear, 30 tends to be the magical age that a running back falls off the cliff. If leaned on heavily early in his career, a back can flame out even sooner. Take Clinton Portis, for example. The University of Miami burner (he once ran a 4.26 40) took the NFL by storm in 2002. By his sixth season, he was noticeably slowing down. By his eighth season he'd become a plodder. Now, heading into his 10th season, he's been cut by the Redskins. Sarcastically dubbed Clinton "Tortoise," his burst is long gone and he's running on fumes. Clinton Portis is 29 years old. How did he get so old so fast? Portis toted the rock 1,308 times (including postseason) in his first four seasons. Adrian Peterson, who turns 26 this month, has logged 1,271 carries in his four-year career. As a violent runner who actively seeks out contact, Peterson's career as an elite-level back is probably somewhere around the halfway point. By the time the Vikings are able to surround him with the right pieces, he'll likely be washed up.

2. Running Backs are Replaceable

Sure, elite-level talents don't grow on trees. However, more so than any other position, a successful running back can be turned up out nowhere. Oftentimes it's because their specific running style is appropriately matched to a team's rushing scheme. Don't believe me? Of last season's 1,000-yard rushers, seven out of 17 (41%) were drafted in the third round or later. In fact, none of last season's top three rushers were draft day darlings -- Arian Foster was undrafted, Jamaal Charles was a third rounder, and Michael Turner was a fifth rounder. Furthermore, the majority of teams have wisely adopted the "running back by committee" approach -- that is, a rotation of good, fresh running backs can be as effective as one great workhorse. Last season Adrian Peterson, who's set to make nearly $13M in 2011, racked up 1,639 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns. In New England, the undrafted tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead combined for 2,019 combination yards and 19 scores, and together they'll bank less than a quarter of Peterson's 2011 salary. As far as replacements, the draft includes names like Mark Ingram, Mikel LeShoure, and Ryan Williams, for starters. With regard to free agency, the ultra-talented DeAngelo Williams (27) highlights a lengthy list of veteran backs looking for work.

Perhaps the blueprint the Vikings should be following is that of the Atlanta Falcons. In 2008, the Falcons were able to turn their franchise around in just one season, going 11-5 after winning just four games in 2007. They did it with a new coach, a rookie quarterback, and a free agent running back (Mike Smith, Matt Ryan, and Michael Turner). Is it crazy to think that the combination of Leslie Frazier, Blaine Gabbert, and DeAngelo Williams might share similar success? Keep in mind, they'd be aided by Matt Ryan's former tutor, new Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave. You may be asking how Blaine Gabbert entered the conversation...

1. The Haul

While NFL trades are uncommon, blockbuster moves involving running backs are not without precedent. The free agency era has ensured that a Herschel Walker-type deal (five players and eight draft picks, including three firsts and three seconds) will never happen again. In 1999, the Saints' Mike Ditka gave eight draft picks (including two firsts) to the Redskins for the right to move up and select the all-time NCAA rushing leader (at the time) out of Texas, Ricky Williams. That example doesn't really work, either, as Williams was an unknown NFL entity. However, there's one trade that is very relevant to this conversation -- it's time to revisit our old friend Clinton Portis. In February of 2004, the Broncos sent Portis (22) to the Redskins in exchange for shutdown cornerback Champ Bailey (25) and a second rounder. In the short term, the trade appeared to benefit both teams. Now seven years later, the younger Portis is all but done, and Bailey is still regarded as one of the best cornerbacks in the league.

Would the Redskins' freewheeling, star chasing owner Dan Snyder be willing to sign off on another such swap? And if so, what would be considered a fair asking price for the league's best running back in the prime of his career? Maybe the conversation begins with hard-hitting safety LaRon Landry (26), Washington's first rounder (No. 10 -- Julio Jones, Prince Amukamara), and something along the lines of a 2012 second rounder. Cincinnati and Arizona both have very talented young cornerbacks, as well as high draft picks. Perhaps a deal could be structured around Leon Hall (26) and the Bengals No. 4 overall pick, or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (24) and Arizona's first rounder (No. 5). Just like that, you've solidified your secondary for the next 6-8 years, and put yourself in position to draft your franchise quarterback (whether it be Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton). Moreover, you could instantly fill the running back void with Mark Ingram at No. 12 if you so choose. Listen, I'm taking my best stab with these packages from a value perspective. I'm no Rick Spielman. The point is, the Vikings have a lot of holes, and an extra lottery pick combined with a proven young talent would go a long way towards a youth infusion.

No running back, not even Adrian Peterson, can win a Super Bowl on his own. This Vikings roster is flawed at numerous positions, and trading Peterson would allow them to plug young talent into these voids to kick-start the rebuilding process. Or, they can keep the status quo, scratching and clawing for a .500 record in a very strong NFC North. I love Adrian Peterson, and I want nothing more than to see him succeed at a high level in Minnesota. Sadly, it's impossible for me to envision him hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in purple. The supporting pieces and the timing just don't line up.

Injury-Prone or Unlucky?

Written for fantasyfootballwhiz.com.

The debate is older than Al Davis. Are certain players more prone to the pine, or have they simply been in the wrong place at the wrong time in an unforgiving collision sport? Does an injury increase the odds of a repeat? Are certain injuries more recurring by nature? The truth is, there's no formula for this kind of exercise. Every human heals differently, and everybody has different pain thresholds. I can't crawl into Maurice Jones-Drew's knee, or Ricky Martin's bed, to tell you what bone-on-bone feels like. And the closest I've come to a Percy Harvin migraine or an Austin Collie concussion was my first morning as a 22 year-old. At the end of the day, it's up to you to decide if you're going to paint injury risk with a broad brush, or if you're going to approach it like a Bob Ross "happy tree."

This is far from a perfect experiment, but it's not without merit when you look beyond the numbers. In addition to crunching the raw data, I've analyzed individual circumstances to compliment the "play rate" for 2011's top draft picks. By tabulating injury-caused DNP percentages, I've removed opinions and speculation from the equation. I did not account for games left early, as these instances would not have factored in to your original lineup decisions. And it would have been a colossal pain in the ass. Should this information be considered a valuable tool come draft day? I'll let you be the judge.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Aaron Rodgers - 97.9%

Rodgers has missed one game (47/48) due to injury since becoming the Packers' starter in 2008. He suffered two concussions but missed just one game in 2010.

2. Michael Vick - 81.3%

Vick has missed 18 games (78/96) due to injury since becoming the Falcons' starter in 2002. His 2001 rookie season and his 2009 season have been omitted from this exercise, as he was not a regular starter. He's missed single games with minor injuries to his shoulder, ankle, and leg. He also missed 11 games in 2003 with a fractured fibula, and three games in 2010 with an injury to his rib cartilage. In six years as a starter, he's played a full 16-game slate just once.

3. Drew Brees - 100%

Brees was benched in 2003, and was rested for the postseason in both 2004 and 2009, but he has not missed a single game due to injury (139/139) since becoming the Chargers' starter in 2002. He went through offseason shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum before joining the Saints in 2006, but he's clearly shown no ill effects.

4. Peyton Manning - 100%

In his 13-year career, Manning has started a remarkable 208/208 games.

5. Tom Brady - 90.5%

Brady missed 15 games after he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in the 2008 season opener. They remain the only games he's missed due to injury (143/158) since becoming the Patriots' starter early in the 2001 season.

6. Philip Rivers - 100%

Since becoming Drew Brees' successor in 2006, Rivers has started 80/80 games.

7. Tony Romo - 82.4%

Romo has missed 13 games (61/74) due to injury since becoming the Cowboys' starter part way through the 2006 season. He missed three games in 2008 with a broken pinkie on his throwing hand, and the final 10 games of 2010 with a broken clavicle.

8. Josh Freeman - 100%

Since becoming the Bucs' starter midway through 2009, Freeman has started 25/25 games.

9. Ben Roethlisberger - 94.1%

Roethlisberger has missed five games (80/85) due to injury since becoming Steelers' starter. He missed four games in 2005 with injuries to both knees, and one in 2009 with a concussion. To our knowledge, he's tallied four concussions (three on the field and one on a windshield). Note: Games missed due to motorcycle accidents, postseason rest, and rape suspensions were not factored in.

10. Matt Schaub - 84.4%

Schaub didn't become a starter until he was traded to Houston in 2007. He missed five games in each of his first two seasons, with a concussion and a separated (left) shoulder in 2007, and a knee injury in 2008. He's rebounded with back-to-back full seasons (54/64).

Analysis

We all know the risk we're incurring when we select Michael Vick, and seeing this data only heightens the anxiety. I'm not sure "injury-prone" is technically the right word here -- he's not necessarily more breakable than the rest of the bunch. However, his style of play invites extra contact, and his fantasy owners have paid for it again and again. The next four guys on the list are much safer choices, still carry outstanding upside, and will cost you much less on draft day... Speaking of safe, there's no denying it: Peyton Manning is the safest pick in the history of fantasy football... Tom Brady was clearly "unlucky" with the knee injury. It's an isolated incident on an otherwise spotless resume, and it could have happened to anyone... Tony Romo is more mobile than most quarterbacks, but his two injuries feel a bit flukey, as they were both bone breaks that occurred inside the pocket... As far as injuries are concerned, I no longer hesitate to draft Matt Schaub... For what it's worth, the top-10 drafted quarterbacks have a combined play rate of 93.7% (915/977), which equates to exactly 15.0 (of 16) games played per season.

RUNNING BACKS

Tabulating running back play rates is a muddy proposition. Quarterbacks are cut and dry -- they're starters or they're not starters. There's a lot of gray area for running backs, as many are eased into action early in their careers. I've used my best judgement to provide a fair outlook for each back.

1. Arian Foster - 100%

Foster was first worked into the Houston running back mix in Week 14 of 2009, and since then he's played in 20/20 games.

2. Adrian Peterson - 95.3%

Peterson has missed three games (61/64) due to injury since entering the league in 2007. He missed two games in his rookie year with a minor knee injury, and one in 2010 with a thigh injury.

3. Jamaal Charles - 100%

Charles has never missed a game (47/47) due to injury since entering the league in 2008. However, it's important to note that his "fantasy" service clock didn't technically start until Larry Johnson was cut midway through the 2009 season. Prior to that, Charles didn't receive enough work to incur equal injury risk, and he was irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Since Johnson's release, however, Charles has played in 25 straight games.

4. Chris Johnson - 100%

Johnson has never missed a game (47/47) due to injury since entering the league in 2008.

5. LeSean McCoy - 100%

McCoy has never missed a game (31/31) due to injury in his two seasons in the NFL. He accumulated 195 touches as Brian Westbrook's backup in his 2009 rookie season. In 2010, he played through a broken rib.

6. Ray Rice - 93.8%

Rice was used sporadically in his 2008 rookie season, and missed the final three regular season games due to a shin contusion. The ailment also severely limited him in two postseason games. This remains the only injury that's caused Rice to miss action (45/48). It's worth noting that he played through a knee contusion in 2010.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew - 97.5%

MoJo started out his career with a sparkling streak of 77 straight injury-free contests. However, after playing on an damaged right knee throughout the entire 2010 season, he was finally forced to the sideline for games No. 78 and 79. He underwent surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus after the season, and his progress will need to be monitored very closely into 2011.

8. Frank Gore - 87.5%

Gore's injury history (84/96) is enough to cause a national shortage on red markers. He missed two games in 2005 (groin/hip), one game in 2007 (ankle), two games in 2008 (ankle), and two games in 2009 (ankle). He also spent the final five weeks of last season on I.R. with a fractured hip. In his six-year career, he's played 16 games just once, and he's developed a knack for getting injured very early in games (after one carry in Week 3 of 2009, and after five carries in Week 12 of 2010). His play rate equates to a career average of 14.0 games per season.

9. Rashard Mendenhall - 75.0%

Mendenhall's 2008 rookie season ended when a fractured shoulder that cost him his final 12 games. Since then, he's played in 32 straight (36/48).

10. Matt Forte - 100%

Forte has never missed a game in his three-year career (48/48).

Here's a couple interesting bonus backs who fell just below the fold...

11. Darren McFadden - 79.2%

Darren McFadden has missed 10 games (38/48) due to injury in his three-year career. He battled turf toe in both feet throughout most of his 2008 rookie season, and although he only missed three games due to the ailment, he was completely phased out of several others. He missed four games in 2009 after undergoing surgery to repair knee cartilage. Last season, McFadden missed two games with a hamstring injury, and another with turf toe.

12. Steven Jackson - 89.3%

Steven Jackson has missed 12 games in his seven-year career (100/112) due to laundry list of injuries: hip, thigh, groin, knee, and back. Last season was just the second 16-game campaign of his career, although he was hobbled by a severe groin injury for much of the year.

Analysis

Despite the solid number behind MoJo's name, he scares me as much as any back on this list... The lowest two rated backs in this study provide us with a perfect example of "injury-prone" vs. "unlucky." Rashard Mendenhall (75%) was welcomed to the league with a bone-shattering hit by Ray Lewis. It could just as easily have happened in Week 14 as Week 4, and he's rebounded with back-to-back full seasons. He was clearly unlucky. Conversely, Darren McFadden (79.2%) actually holds a better play rate, but he's appears to be significantly more injury-prone. Drafting McFadden is a bit like dating a prostitute -- you're paying a steep price for damaged goods and loads of baggage. In three seasons, he's missed games for four separate injuries that have included knee, hamstring, and turf toe... I typically try to avoid Frank Gore, but I was a bit surprised to see how close Steven Jackson came to matching Gore's dismal play rate... For what it's worth, the top-10 drafted running backs have a combined play rate of 93.9% (496/528), which equates to exactly 15.0 (of 16) games played per season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson - 89.8%

Johnson has missed 13 games (115/128) due to injury in his eight-year career. He missed three games in 2005 and seven games in 2007 with knee injuries. He also missed three games last season with an ankle injury.

2. Roddy White - 100%

White has never missed a game (96/96) in his six-year career.

3. Calvin Johnson - 95.3%

Johnson has missed just three games (61/64) due to injury in four years, but he's been noticeably limited in several others. He missed one game in 2007 with a back injury, and two in 2009 with a knee injury.

4. Hakeem Nicks - 84.4%

Nicks has missed five games (27/32) due to injury in two season. He missed two games in 2009 with a sprained left foot, two games in 2010 after undergoing emergency surgery for compartment syndrome (extreme swelling) in his right calf, and the final game of 2010 with a broken toe.

5. Greg Jennings - 94.9%

Jennings has missed four games (75/79) due to injury in five seasons. He missed two games in 2007 with ankle injuries, and two more in 2008 with a bad hamstring. He's since completed three straight 16-game seasons.

6. Reggie Wayne - 98.1%

Wayne missed the first three games of his career with a high ankle sprain. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since (157/160).

7. Larry Fitzgerald - 96.4%

Fitzgerald has missed four games (108/112) due to injury in his seven-year career. He missed three in 2006 with a hamstring injury, and one in 2007 with a groin injury.

8. Mike Wallace - 100%

In his two years, Wallace has never missed a game (32/32) due to injury.

9. Miles Austin - 91.7%

Because of his unconventional rise to stardom, tracking and calculating Austin's injury rate wasn't easy. In his first two seasons, he was primarily a special-teamer who saw spot duty at receiver, totaling just 10 targets. Therefore, I didn't start his "fantasy" service clock until 2008, when he became slightly more involved in the offense. While he was still a fantasy non-factor, we can't ignore the four games he missed with a lingering MCL sprain that he originally suffered in the preseason. Austin emerged as a star in 2009, and has played back-to-back full 16-game seasons (44/48).

10. Dwayne Bowe - 98.3%

Bowe has missed one game (59/60) due to injury in his four NFL seasons. He missed five total games in 2009 -- one with a leg injury, and four for a league suspension.

Analysis

If you're choosing between Roddy White and one of the Johnson's, perhaps this data should be used as a tie breaker... I love Hakeem Nicks, but if you miss games for three separate injuries in two seasons, you're really pushing the "injury-prone" envelope... Over the last nine seasons, Reggie Wayne has been as reliable as Peyton Manning... We're officially in the clear with Greg Jennings and Miles Austin... For some reason, I had it in my head that Larry Fitzgerald was more fragile. I must have owned him in multiple leagues in 2006... It's no coincidence that the thrice-concussed Austin Collie, one of 2009's most productive per-game receivers, was nowhere close to the top-10 (20th)... For what it's worth, the top-10 drafted wide receivers have a combined play rate of 95.4% (774/811), which equates to 15.3 (of 16) games played per season.

Admittedly, there's a lot of useless information here. But weeding through piles of useless information is how we find the good stuff, and I truly believe there are some gems here. If nothing else, look at this as an informational piece -- a comprehensive injury directory for 2011's top draft picks. Whether you use this material to assess injury risk is certainly your call. For me personally, I've tagged Michael Vick, Frank Gore, Darren McFadden, Steven Jackson, and Hakeem Nicks as players carrying a legitimate risk of missing games. No surprises there. Several other players toe the line between "injury-prone" and "unlucky." That's where you have to trust your gut.

Boser's Tweetbeat

My exciting new column for LestersLegends.com.

Sifting through the hashtags to bring you the hottest trending Twitter topics in the Fantasy Football industry.

ADRIAN PETERSON VS. ARIAN FOSTER

That didn't take long. The debate for the rightful No. 1 pick in next season's redraft leagues has already materialized. After compiling 18 touchdowns and 2,218 combo yards last year, Arian Foster did more than enough to earn the top billing for me. However, Adrian Peterson backers certainly have a solid case -- he's finished as a top-5 fantasy back in each of his first four seasons. His most productive year was 2009, with 18 scores and 1,825 combo yards. It's no coincidence that it was the only season he's lined up behind a quarterback better than Shane Falco. When Brett Favre struggled to move the chains in 2010, Peterson saw less scoring opportunities and got a preview of what's to come in 2011. In addition to the probable lack of a passing threat, Peterson's patty-cake offensive line does him no favors. Moreover, the Vikings' offense will be in transition under new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, with a (potentially) shortened offseason program to acclimate. Peterson cleaned up the fumbling issues last season, and he's dispelled early-career injury concerns. He's the best running back in the NFL, and I consider him a safe, worthy top-3 selection.

Arian Foster's only done it for one year, but while some see this as a negative, I see it as fresh legs. Sure, things likely would have been different had Ben Tate stayed healthy last season. Instead, Foster emerged as a bona fide superstar, and Tate will enter 2011 as a redshirt rookie coming off a severe ankle injury. Gary Kubiak will return (by the skin of his teeth) with his zone-blocking scheme that fits Foster perfectly. He'll have plenty of incentive to lean on the 2010 NFL rushing king -- the pitchforks are sharpened and the torches are ablaze in Houston. Unlike fellow breakout back Peyton Hillis, Foster finished very strong, and had no problem shouldering a heavy workload. With Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson forcing defenses away from the line, Foster will again have plenty of room to operate, and it's a safe bet that the No. 3 Houston offense will spend a lot more time in the red zone than the No. 23 Vikings. The versatile Foster is built for fantasy use, and at the end of the day, I think his situation trumps Peterson's talent.

THE FINLEY EFFECT

After a relatively slow start last season, Greg Jennings rebounded for a career year (76/1,265/12). It's no surprise that his surge coincided with the ultra-talented Jermichael Finley's season ending knee injury. While everybody seems to agree that Finley's return will cost Jennings some looks in 2011, experts are split on the degree to which it will effect his production. In early mocks, I've seen Jennings drafted anywhere from third to eighth among receivers. Those bullish on Jennings will cite that the geriatric Donald Driver is clearly on the decline. They'll argue that Aaron Rodgers' magnificence can accommodate a top-level tight end, support an elite wide receiver, and part the Red Sea. I'm finding myself on the other side of the argument. Donald Driver's decline was more than offset by the progression of James Jones and Jordy Nelson. The two had inconsistent moments, but the numbers don't lie -- they combined for 151 targets, 95 catches, 1,261 yards and seven scores. Jones' status in Green Bay is on uneven ground, but Nelson appears ready to take the next step even if Jones departs.

That brings us back to Finley. He's an athletic specimen who's literally open on every play, and with Jennings working downfield routes, Finley's typically open quicker. The two have played exactly 16 full games together in the last two years, giving us a nice round figure to work with. Jennings' production in the pieced-together season has been disappointing -- 59/1,035/6. Coincidence or not, those numbers would've ranked 20th in standard scoring among receivers last season, one spot ahead of Braylon Edwards. I won't go so far as to say he can't be a No. 1 fantasy receiver, but unless Finley is sidelined again, I'll have a hard time trusting Jennings in that spot.

LION KING

Believe it or not, china doll Matt Stafford is at the center of heated draft discussions. There's an aggressive assembly that views Stafford as a low-end QB1 with top-10 upside. Then there's me and my red marker. I get it, Stafford has the blue chip pedigree, and he's shown some promising flashes in his first two seasons. He has an upper echelon receiver in Calvin Johnson, and a decent set of secondary pass catchers that includes Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jahvid Best. You could even recklessly extrapolate his 2.5-game 2010 sample size into a mouth-watering 45-touchdown, 3,424-yard fantasy feast. Stafford certainly appears to have all the skills to excel in the NFL, except one -- the ability to stay on the field. Yes, that's a skill. Brett Favre wasn't just the luckiest guy in the league for the last two decades. And it's not like Bob Sanders habitually walks under ladders. Where there's smoke there's typically fire, and Stafford's sending off more signals than Bear Grylls.

As a result of knee damage and three injuries to his throwing shoulder, Stafford's missed 19 of 32 career games (59%). His offensive line has improved in protection, but quarterbacks inevitably get hit, especially in a division with Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, and Jared Allen. I don't necessarily disagree with the premise that Stafford has top-10 potential, but he shouldn't be drafted that way. Until he can correct his horrific rate of DNP's, I see him as a mid-to-low level fantasy QB2.

MOCKING 2011

I've recently had the pleasure of partaking in a series of 2011 mock drafts with a group of around 25 fellow industry writers, analysts, and amateur comedians. We're using a slow draft format with several drafts going on simultaneously, and this first series is strictly PPR. It's been a blast, and with about a dozen mocks in the books, we're beginning to accumulate some early ADP knowledge. There have been a few interesting nuggets that have jumped out to me. The momentum of Aaron Rodgers' outstanding postseason run has propelled him past Michael Vick for top quarterback honors. There appears to be no consensus top wide receiver. And if you're high on Josh Freeman, Jamaal Charles, and Hakeem Nicks heading into next season, join the club -- they're stocks are soaring.

The "Draftmaster" series is organized by Jim Day of FantasyFootballWhiz.com, and with the help of Pro Football Focus' Mike Clay, here's a first glimpse at our early results. If you're a strong drafter with interest in participating in the Draftmaster series, feel free to reach out to Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) on Twitter for more information.

That wraps up my first installment of "Boser's Tweetbeat." Be sure to check back here in two weeks for the latest insider buzz circulating throughout the Twitterverse.

Ryan Boser has contributed writing and analysis for FantasyVictory.com, KFAN AM 1130's Fantasy Football Weekly program, and numerous other fantasy football outlets. Ryan's own website, Out of My League, covers both fantasy football and the Minnesota sports landscape.

Contenders or Pretenders?

To call the Vikings' season bizarre would be an understatement of epic proportions. Imagine if I'd told you two months ago that Randy Moss would return to the Vikings, Kendra Wilkinson would bring the twins to the Twin Cities, and Brett Favre's privates would no longer be private. You simply can't make this stuff up. The Winter Park Circus has taken center stage, but for all the wrong reasons. The product on the field hasn't been nearly as entertaining as the extravaganza off of it. At 2-3, the enigmatic Vikings are an immensely talented group of underachievers who probably don't deserve the opportunity they still have. However, the NFC North has been lousy, and as you're about to find out, a third straight division crown is still well within reach.

WEEK 7

You may find it hard to believe, but I don't hate the Packers. Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley are among my favorite players in the league. It's their uber-obnoxious, glue-sniffing fan base that drives me up a wall. The Vikings catch a couple of major breaks here. First, they get the outdoor portion of the series split out of the way early, meaning that the weather will be a month warmer for brittle Brett Favre. Second, and more importantly, the Packers are decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. The headliners are season-ending injuries to Ryan Grant, Nick Barnett, and Finley (who torched the purple for 6/128/TD in his only contest last year). The running back tandem of Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn are better suited for bagging groceries. While Rodgers will still make some plays when the Pack goes four-wide, he was sacked 14 times in the two matchups last season, and another nine in his last two games. On the other side of the ball, Brett Favre wasn't sacked once in the two matchups last year, and he chucked seven touchdowns. He's started slow, but he has a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last two games. Adrian Peterson has scored in the last four matchups between these teams, and overall, the Vikings are simply too talented across the board for a short-handed team that's being held together with duct tape. Other notable Packers whose availability is in question are: Al Harris, Atari Bigby, Donald Driver, A.J. Hawk, Brandon Chillar, Chad Clifton, Cullen Jenkins, Clay Matthews, Ryan Pickett, Mark Tauscher, and Charles Woodson. The Packers opened tryouts to the public this morning, but the only "prospect" who passed the breathalyzer was a 460 pound bearded hoarder-woman who bore a striking resemblance to Gilbert Brown. He/she will battle Bryan Bulaga for playing time Sunday night. All kidding aside, this game was won three weeks ago, when in a 24-hour span the Packers passed on Marshawn Lynch and the Vikings added Randy Moss. It should be a tightly contested game, and for what it's worth, Aaron Rodgers is 1-11 in games decided by four points or less.

WEEK 8

This is a scary Halloween matchup for the Vikings. In case you're wondering, I'll be dressing up as a matador this year, in my purple #74. Ole! There's three factors the Vikings will struggle to counter in this one: a hostile crowd, possibly the best quarterback of all time, and a colossal coaching disadvantage. The Vikings will still hold a statistical advantage in most areas of this matchup, most notably over the Patriots' 30th ranked defense. But Bill Belichick is the ultimate trickster, and I'm not betting against him on All Hallow's Eve. The Vikings are hoping that Randy Moss will come back to haunt the Patriots, but the Brady/Belichick combination has won their last 23 regular season home games!

WEEK 9

The Cardinals are 26th against the pass and 29th against the run. Their starting quarterback, Max Hall, is an undrafted rookie. Hall replaced Derek Anderson, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. Why am I even wasting time on this one, anything less than a 20-point shellacking should be considered a major disappointment. Welcome home, Larry!

WEEK 10

The Bears are an average team, and they're an epic blown call away from an average 3-3 record. They tripped up the Vikings late last season, but like the Packer home/road series split, the Vikings luck out again getting the outdoor game early. I know, it sounds weak, but I'll take Brett outside on November 14th over December 20th any day. The frigid weather stiffens his creaky joints, and it also causes shrinkage and shoddy cell phone service. If you need any further convincing, in six career games, Adrian Peterson has scored a ridiculous 11 touchdowns against the Bears and has averaged 138 yards per contest.

WEEK 11

The Packers should be much healthier in the rematch. However, Sidney Rice should be back in the fold for the Vikings as well. With matchup nightmares Moss and Rice on the outside, Harvin working the slot, Shiancoe working the middle, and Adrian being Adrian, this is the week that the Vikings' offense hits full throttle for the first time. Additionally, the Vikings have won 12 of their last 13 games at the stadium formerly known as the Metrodome. Skol.

WEEK 12

For some reason, this one has me a little worried. The Vikings are a markedly better team than the Redskins, who rank in the bottom half of the league on both sides of the ball. However, there's always one unexpected loss that you don't account for. There's the hostile crowd. There's the cold weather. There's Randy Moss hitting the FedEx Field showers early in 2005. There's Fred Smoot covering 1/3 of the Earth. This game just feels a lot like the late-season losses in Carolina and Chicago last year. I'm calling it a tentative victory for now.

WEEK 13

The Bills might be the worst team in the NFL. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, a Harvard grad, scored 48 out of 50 on his Wonderlic Test, and might be the smartest player in the league. That's neat. However, he sucks at football.

WEEK 14

As of October 21, the Giants may be the cream of the NFC crop. They're talented, balanced, well-coached, and have recent Super Bowl cred. The Vikings have won their past four against New York, which is refreshing when you consider that our Twins have lost 17 of their last 19 to the Yankees. As of right now, however, the Giants are the more solid, consistent team.

WEEK 15

In the Week 10 matchup, the only advantage I could find for the Bears was their home turf. They've lost three straight in the bubble, and they'll be outclassed again in this one.

WEEK 16

As a Viking fan, I know all too well how dangerous Michael Vick can be. The Philly fans may decide to spare Santa this year and save their snowballs for the Vikings. Between the weather, the stout opponent, the hostile environment, and Andy Reid's clear psychological edge over former understudy Brad Childress, I'm very pessimistic about this potential playoff preview. If that's not bad enough, the Vikings will be coming off an emotional victory with a short week of preparation.

WEEK 17

I expect this to be a "win and you're in" matchup for the Vikings. Thank you, schedule makers! This isn't your older brother's Detroit Lions -- this bunch is plucky. However, the Vikings won the first matchup handily. That made six straight over Detroit, and with Minnesota angling for a playoff birth, this should be a blowout.

I found it difficult to pick against the Vikings in most matchups. Not because I love them, but because on paper they are easily one of the most talented teams in the league. They've invented some interesting methods of self-destruction over the last year, but that's a difficult thing to figure in to this kind of exercise. Randy Moss not only brought game-breaking ability back to the purple, but he brought his air of swagger and confidence that's been striking fear into opponents since 1998. I've predicted a 10-6 finish, but I have six "swing games" on the schedule -- games that I can see going either way (within two notches of center in either direction). In those six swing games, I have the Vikings going 4-2. That means that in my estimation, their record could range anywhere from 6-10 to 12-4. Their stretch of three swing games from Week 10-12, which includes two crucial home divisional matchups, may ultimately decide their fate.

What do you think? Am I a jaded homer? Am I being too critical of the home team? Let's hear it!