2010 NFL Playoff Predictions

Admittedly, my board does not coincide with most "expert" predictions you'll find across the interweb. But until proven otherwise, I'm going to assume that I'm right and they're wrong. That's how I roll (just ask my wife, she loves that).

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints** - Fresh off their magical Super Bowl run, MVP Drew Brees and the Saints draw the league's 6th easiest schedule. Head Coach Sean Payton will continue to rotate a seemingly endless supply of fresh backs and receivers in and out of Brees' huddle. Outstanding Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams returns most of his ball-hawking defense, including underrated cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer. The Saints are locked and loaded for another shot at the title.

2.) San Francisco 49ers** - Hear me out. With the retirement of Kurt Warner, the Downy-soft NFC West is the 49ers' for the taking. San Francisco wisely used both of their first round picks on offensive linemen to protect the slowly improving Alex Smith. The 2005 #1 overall pick has an extremely talented trifecta of playmakers to distribute the rock to in tight end Vernon Davis, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and running back Frank Gore. Defensively, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin is one of the league's most underrated players. What gets by Franklin doesn't get by freakish middle linebacker Patrick Willis, the best defensive player in the NFL. The 49ers will get fat on a cupcake schedule, and they should finish with their best record since Jeff Garcia was hooking up with Terrell Owens in 2001.

3.) Minnesota Vikings* - Brett Favre unofficially retired this morning. He unofficially unretired this afternoon. Unlike many Vikings fans, I never flinched. The Vikings will return all 22 starters, Favre included, from a team that had no business losing the NFC title game last season. From Adrian Peterson to Jared Allen, the Vikings have the most talented roster in the NFL, as was reflected by their league-leading eight Pro Bowl selections in 2009. They have a wonderful blend of veteran leadership and youthful talent, and anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would be a disappointment. Vikings' cynics declare the team "cursed" by the Herschel Walker trade and the Drew Pearson push-off. With this year's Super Bowl in Dallas, Vikings' enthusiasts are insisting it's "destiny." Hogwash. The Vikings were the best team in the NFL last season, and nothing's changed. It's that simple.

4.) Dallas Cowboys* - I can't quite figure out the hype surrounding the Cowboys. The last time we saw them, they were up in arms over the Vikings running up the score in the divisional playoffs. You surely remember left tackle Flozell Adams going down early in the game, and the carnage that ensued. The 5-time Pro Bowler has since been released. He'll be replaced by Doug Free, the same saloon door swing tackle who replaced him in the aforementioned 34-3 massacre. Sure, adding rookie Dez Bryant to the aerial attack is nice, but not nearly enough to justify the media buildup of the club. Bryant joins 2009 breakout star Miles Austin and the dependable Jason Witten to give Tony Romo another weapon. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff and linebacker DeMarcus Ware give opposing offensive coordinators nightmares, and all skepticism aside, the Cowboys should have no problem winning the NFC East on talent alone. But until Tony Romo proves himself in a big game, I can't project anything more.

5.) Green Bay Packers - (Deep exhale). Much to the chagrin of Vikings fans, Aaron Rodgers is the best young quarterback in the game, and the Packers will push the Vikings hard for the NFC North crown in 2010. They improved their weak offensive line with the addition of rookie Bryan Bulaga, and Rodgers has a deep pool of talented pass catchers at his disposal. Running back Ryan Grant is ordinary but steady. Playmaking cornerback Charles Woodson is coming off an incredible 2009, and entering the second year of defensive whiz Dom Capers' new 3-4 scheme, the Packers second rated defense shouldn't miss a beat. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to be sick.

6.) Atlanta Falcons - Workhorse Michael Turner is healthy, and once again, Atlanta is garnering a lot of preseason buzz. The Falcons are coming off the first back to back winning seasons in their history, and all conversation begins and ends with budding star quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan had some growing pains in his sophomore season, but he's poised to take the next step with star receiver Roddy White and future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez. Rookie linebacker Sean Witherspoon and free agent cornerback Dunta Robinson should instantly improve the defense. Unlike many, I don't see the Falcons as a realistic threat to the Saints in the NFC South, but I think a third straight winning season and a return to the playoffs are within reach.

AFC

1.) San Diego Chargers** - A perennial playoff disappointment, I'm predicting more of the same from San Diego in 2010. The team is still in contract squabbles with receiver Vincent Jackson, linebacker Shawne Merriman, and most importantly, left tackle Marcus McNeill. I expect McNeill to be taken care of, and even without the other two, the Chargers have a clear path to the top seed with the league's 4th softest schedule. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates are money, and as odd as it may sound, explosive rookie Ryan Mathews is a big upgrade over the celebrated LaDanian Tomlinson at running back. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers defense isn't scaring anybody. For that reason, I fully expect an early playoff exit for the media's Super Bowl favorite.

2.) Indianapolis Colts** - Yawn. Another year, another first round bye for the boringly spectacular Colts. If ever there was a team immune to the Super Bowl runner-up hangover, it's Indy. The Colts' 115 wins from 2000-2009 are the most by any team in any decade. Featuring the uninspiring Joseph Addai, the Colt's had the league's worst rushing attack in 2009. Yet Peyton Manning, and his arsenal led by Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, ranked 7th in the NFL in points. The pass rushing tandem of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis sets the tone on defense. When Bob Sanders is on the field (which is never a guarantee), the secondary is very good. The 2009 roster is still largely intact, and Manning, the NFL's only 4-time MVP, will again keep the Colts in the Super Bowl conversation.

3.) New York Jets* - The Jets are a polarizing team. There are those who are buying the hype, and those who are scoffing at it. Obviously, I'm one of the former. With this lofty projection, I'm clearly assuming the Darrelle Revis contract situation gets resolved. Already an elite pass defense, the Jets added Antonio Cromartie, stud rookie Kyle Wilson, pass rushing legend Jason Taylor, and a healthy Kris Jenkins. A rock solid offensive line will pave the way for the second year backfield foundation of Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene. Ladanian Tomlinson will keep Greene fresh, and Santonio Holmes provides Sanchez a speedy target with a Super Bowl pedigree. Head Coach Rex Ryan is a defensive genius who oozes confidence, and he's made a believer out of me.

4.) Baltimore Ravens* - The Ravens aren't going to blind side anybody in 2010; they're legit Super Bowl contenders. Long known for their dominating defense, they've become very balanced. An outstanding offensive line will protect emerging star Joe Flacco, and new addition Anquan Boldin is sure to help a subpar passing game. By season's end, electric running back Ray Rice will be a household name. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are in the twilight of their careers, but defensive lineman Haloti Ngata and linebacker Terrell Suggs lead the next wave of defensive talent. The Ravens' achilles heal is the health of their secondary. Reed's early season availability (hip) is in question, and they've already lost starting cornerback Domonique Foxworth for the season. They'll have to outscore teams, but for once, they have the firepower.

5.) Houston Texans - OK, this is going to be the year. The Texans have been a fashionable sleeper pick the last few seasons, but have yet to put it all together. However, as AFC stalwarts like Pittsburgh and New England have begun to deteriorate, the Texans' talent has ripened. On offense, Matt Schaub can light up the scoreboard, chucking to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. On defense, the core of Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, and Bernard Pollard should make enough plays to mask a pair of young cornerbacks. They'll be tested with a tough schedule, but the time is right for Houston to finally crack the postseason.

6.) Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs will become the darling story of the NFL this year. They've put together a very solid nucleus of young talent, headlined by breakout running back Jamal Charles. They added veteran leaders Thomas Jones and Ryan Lilja to compliment their youth. Star rookie safety Eric Berry joins the budding cornerback duo of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr in the secondary, instantly improving a bad defense. I could certainly be a year or two early on this call, but I'm betting that a soft schedule, and the addition of coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, will expedite the maturation process. I'm on an island with this one.

Whew. That turned into a bigger project than I expected. Am I right? Am I crazy? Feel free to discuss, but be sure to come with a solid rationale - I've gone deep in my analysis and I'm sticking to my guns!

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview

Now that the vuvuzela has been silenced for another four years, a new buzz has invaded the sports world. Yes, fantasy football preseason is in full swing, and it's music to our bleeding ears. One of the more difficult tasks in our preseason preparation is assigning fair value to the hometown players we're exposed to all year. In this post, I am of course referring to the Minnesota Vikings. There are two common traps fantasy owners fall into. The most common mistake is overvaluing Vikings. We all know the owners in our league who will overspend on anyone wearing purple and gold, in an attempt to double dip on Sunday Funday. They're an easy mark, and the consequences should be obvious. Homers never win, because they draft with their hearts and not with their heads. The second, and more painful trap, is being fully aware of one's own fanhood, and overcorrecting for fear of becoming the aforementioned homer. I've fallen victim to this in the past, and trust me, there's nothing worse than watching the Vikings explode on a Sunday when you chose not to grab a piece of the purple pie. It's that same feeling you got in the pit of your stomach when you weren't invited to the coed margarita hot tub party. But enough about me, let's attempt to take an objective look at your 2010 fantasy Minnesota Vikings.

ADRIAN PETERSON

There's no other place to start than Adrian Peterson. Peterson entered 2009 as the prince of fantasy football, but by the end of the season, Chris Johnson had dethroned him. Entering 2010, the two are locked in a national battle for the #1 overall spot. This is an instance where, being closer to the situation, I think local owners should be downgrading a Viking. Here, we put Peterson's flaws under the microscope year round, and justifiably so. National experts are looking at the bottom line stats and the superhuman highlights, and from 10,000 feet, Peterson does look like a surefire top two pick. But he's not. Take a deep breath, homers.

I have some real concerns. Peterson's YPC dropped for the second straight season, to 4.4, as the offensive line struggled to open holes with any kind of consistency. Adrian was dropped in the backfield more than any back in the league, and the Vikings did nothing to improve their pathetic run blocking this offseason. A more glaring issue for Vikings fans is Adrian's slippery mitts. He's fumbled 17 times in the last two seasons. Even if your league doesn't subtract points for fumbles, it's costing him scoring opportunities, and it will undoubtedly cost him carries. Which, naturally, leads me to Toby Gerhart. The second rounder accumulated nearly 700 carries in his four years at Stanford, and fumbled only once every 67.1 carries (a big upgrade to Adrian's rate of 1/42.3 over the last two seasons). Furthermore, he racked up 27 touchdowns last season. It would make a lot of sense for the Vikings to work the young bruiser into the mix near the goal line. Not only is he more sure-handed, but it would be wise to start prolonging Peterson's career by protecting him from violent goal line collisions. Chester Taylor stole just one rushing touchdown from Peterson last season. Gerhart could easily steal 8-10. Finally, with Brett Favre under center, the Vikings are a passing team. Peterson lost 49 carries from 2008 to 2009, and there's no chance of him approaching the 363 carry mark he set in 2008 with Favre chucking again. With slight trepidation, I have Peterson ranked 4th overall.

Chris Johnson was on another planet last season. He enters 2010 without any major questions. The loss of aging center Kevin Mawae and the toll of 408 touches are worth noting, but not enough to unseat him as the clear #1. Keep in mind, that even a 25% reduction in last year's output would still net 1,880 total yards and 12 TD. And with nobody to share the touches with, there's no reason to expect a significant drop off for CJ. Maurice Jones-Drew feels like a much safer #2 than Peterson. He's missed just one game in the last four years, he's a 3-down back with superb hands, and he's possibly the best goal-line back in the league. Ray Rice is on the fast-track to fantasy superstardom. I expect him to grace the covers of many a fantasy magazine next season. He's a MoJo clone, with the only major difference being that he still has to deal with pesky vultures Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain.

To me, ranking Peterson 4th seems like the perfect balance between homerism and overcorrection. Despite all his negatives, he's still probably the most talented back in the NFL. Shockingly, he hasn't missed a game in two straight seasons, and he's the only back in the league to rank in the top 5 in fantasy points in 2007, 2008, and 2009. His talent alone should keep that streak alive. I can't in good conscience rank him lower than Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, or Michael Turner. Gore hasn't played a full season since 2006, and was just good (not great) from 2007-2009. When are people going to stop buying the hype? He's inconsistent, injury prone, and a vastly inferior talent to Peterson; his ceiling is Peterson's basement. Steven Jackson is a beast, but like Gore, he's also failed to play a full season since 2006, and his scoring opportunities are severely limited in St. Louis. Michael Turner is coming off a badly injured ankle, and with Jerious Norwood healthy and Jason Snelling in the mix, it seems that he's in line for a workload reduction of closer to 300 carries. He also doesn't play on 3rd downs, and is invisible in the passing game. He has 22 catches for 147 yards in his 6-year career (Peterson contributed 43 for 436 last season alone). So while I still think Adrian will still be a top 5 running back, the former prince will not be worth the king's ransom required to land him in Minnesota fantasy leagues.

TOBY GERHART

My fondness for Gerhart has been well chronicled on this site. He's a first round NFL talent, who had no business falling to the 51st overall pick in April's draft. As far as his fantasy value, I see a direct correlation between the overvaluing of Adrian Peterson and the undervaluing of Gerhart. Of the top seven running backs who I discussed in the previous paragraphs, Gerhart is easily the most talented respective backup. In recent years, running back-by-committees have muddied the definition of "handcuff." Where is the line drawn between a handcuff and a committee back? That was rhetorical, but the point I'm trying to make is that for the price of a handcuff, you may be buying into a more valuable low-level committee situation. Gerhart is a guy who can protect the ball at the stripe, protect the lead late in games, and protect the lifespan of Adrian Peterson (especially in blowout situations). So even if Adrian Peterson, a man who actively pursues punishment, can somehow stay healthy for a third straight season, Gerhart could still have value as a bye week/injury filler when the schedule is right. He's the unquestioned #2 on the Viking's roster, yet he's currently being drafted #140 overall in ESPN mocks, in the same vicinity as scraps like Tashard Choice, Larry Johnson, Arian Foster, Mike Bell, and Derrick Ward. The guy just can't get any respect, and if you land him in this portion of the draft, it's highway robbery.

BRETT FAVRE

You may have noticed that I'm operating under the assumption that Brett's coming back. Well, I'm 99% sure, only because "100%" and "Brett Favre" can never be accurately used in the same sentence. Favre was the third best fantasy quarterback last season, trumping guys like Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady. Yet he's fallen well behind all of them in mocks (as well as Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers). He's currently being drafted as the 8th quarterback, just ahead of the underwhelming Joe Flacco and the overhyped Jay Cutler. It begs the question: What's changed from 2009? Favre is coming off his best statistical season at the age of 40, has all of his weapons back, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Logic simply doesn't apply to this man, so we should stop trying to apply it. Is standard cleanup surgery on his ankle really going to derail him, when last season's bicep surgery on his throwing arm caused no ill effect? Sure, a good case could be made for each of the younger signal callers being drafted ahead of him, but the fact that he's being drafted a full two rounds later than guys like Romo and Rivers is baffling. Especially when experts continue to warn us about injury concerns surrounding the NFL's Ironman, and in the next sentence, endorse quarterbacks who've missed more time in the last few years than Favre has missed in his entire life. As of right now, Brett Favre is easily the best value of any quarterback in Fantasyland. Draft or bid accordingly, grab yourself a margarita, and enjoy the view.

SIDNEY RICE

Nobody benefited more from Brett Favre than Sidney Rice. His 83 catches for 1,312 yards and 8 TD's vaulted him to the #8 WR ranking, and certified him as an up-and-coming star. His 15.8 YPC was outstanding, as he became Favre's favorite downfield target. He lacks elite top end speed, but he more than makes up for it in size, body control, hand-eye coordination, and sticky fingers. In short, he's the polar opposite of former South Carolina teammate Troy Williamson. That's incredibly high praise. He's currently being drafted 11th among WR's, in the neighborhood of Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Steve Smith (Car), and Anquan Boldin. This seems a touch low to me. I expect the Pro Bowler to once again finish in the back end of the top 10 WR's. His lingering hip injury is a bit of a concern, and will certainly be something to monitor in the preseason. However, with other top receivers catching balls from unproven QB's like Chad Henne, Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb, Matt Moore, and Matt Stafford, Sidney's bromance with Favre feels like a pretty safe situation to buy into.

PERCY HARVIN

Electric. There's no better word to describe the 2009 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's a threat to score on every play, whether he's split out, in the slot, in the backfield, or returning kicks. That being said, I think he's being overvalued on the basis of style points. I'm still not sold that the coaching staff has defined a consistent role for him, and what's more, I'm not sure they have the creative chops to get the most out of his diverse skill set. What we're left with is a boom-or-bust teaser who cracked 100 yards receiving just once last season. More troubling to me, is that there's been no news of any progress towards solving Harvin's chronic migraines (pun intended). He missed just one game last season with the ailment, but he was nonexistent in several others, after missing weeks of practice and leaving fantasy owners with headaches of their own. I love Percy Harvin as an NFL player, but I'm skeptical of him as a consistent fantasy contributor. Right now he's being drafted just inside the top 20 WR's, a spot ahead of the reliable but boring Hines Ward. Are you ordering the dependable cheeseburger, or the hit-or-miss fish tacos? Pass the Heinz.

BERNARD BERRIAN
Coming off a nice 2008 as the Vikings go-to receiver, the sky was supposed to be the limit for Berrian in 2009. But before Favre had even traded denim for spandex, Berrian's season was hamstrung. Injured in the first preseason game, his gimpy hamstring never had a chance to fully recover. He tried to fight through it all year, but missed out on any real opportunities to gel with Favre. I imagine that the pain in his leg paled in comparison to the pain of watching Favre turn Percy Harvin into the Rookie of the Year, and Sidney Rice into a Pro Bowler. In the last game of the season, Berrian finally showed a spark. After never topping 75 yards once during the regular season, he grabbed 9 balls for 102 yards in the NFC Championship game. On replay, we all saw Berrian lurking wide open down the right sideline, as Favre forced the infamous interception in the direction of his more trusted target, Rice. Be right back, I need a drink.

As we come into the 2010 season, Berrian finds himself in a weird spot. He seems to have been passed by both Harvin and Rice on the depth chart. Harvin's a more natural fit for the slot in three receiver sets. Who will line up opposite of Rice in two-wide sets has yet to be determined. Berrian is still very capable of helping your fantasy squad if the opportunity presents itself. He's currently being drafted as the 45th receiver. At that spot, I see him as a great value. He's the same guy who was talented enough to rack up 964 yards and 7 TD's with Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson taking snaps in 2008. The depth chart is still in flux, Rice's hip is healing slower than expected, and Harvin may be on the injury report every week of his career. The chips fell all wrong for Bernard in 2009, but if they fall right in 2010, you could be looking at a top 25 receiver who you scored for pennies on the dollar. Take a flier.

VISANTHE SHIANCOE
Shiancoe was a red zone beast last season. His 11 touchdowns were second among tight ends, and he finished 6th in fantasy scoring at his position. Ignored between the 20's, his value was dependent on touchdowns, and he delivered. However, in fantasy football, yardage is a more dependable measurable than touchdowns when formulating predictions. Touchdowns can be fluky, and the human tripod would be hard pressed to exceed what he did in 2009. Did I really just write that?

RYAN LONGWELL
Longwell has a strong, accurate leg, and he kicks indoors for a high powered offense. These are the kinds of things we look for in a fantasy kicker, and Longwell should have no problem finding himself in the top 5 again this season (he finished 3rd in 2009). If he's able to turn a handful of his league-leading 54 PAT's into field goals, he could rise even higher.

D/ST
The Vikings are currently being drafted as the 6th D/ST. They led the league in sacks and forced fumbles last season, and if Ray Edwards can put aside his contractual quandaries, he appears poised to join Jared Allen as part of a premiere pass rushing tandem. The Vikings will be stout against the run once again, even with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson most likely sidelined early in the season. However, the Vikings already lackluster secondary took a major hit with the loss of Cedric Griffin, who's ACL injury will keep him in street clothes with Henderson for a chunk of 2010. Improving on their putrid 11 interceptions will be a tall task, and the pass defense will thwart the overall potential of the Vikings D/ST. Percy Harvin's return skills will be the wild card, and should keep the unit in top 5 contention.

When you remove the fan from the fantasy, you end up with something closer to reality. Can you handle the truth? If not, be sure to err on the side of hot tub.