Minnesota Vikings: Seven Buckets of Fandom

With the lockout depriving NFL writers of tangible topics, I've decided to turn my attention inward--to the fans. Why? Because I'm tired of writing articles that revolve around the invalidating word "could." The Vikings could be interested in Kyle Orton. Legislature could pass the stadium bill in Arden Hills. Ray Edwards could crap himself in the ring. I'm over "could." So this one's for you, Vikings fans--a true exercise in self awareness.

Click here to read the rest of the story at Yahoo.

Contenders or Pretenders?

To call the Vikings' season bizarre would be an understatement of epic proportions. Imagine if I'd told you two months ago that Randy Moss would return to the Vikings, Kendra Wilkinson would bring the twins to the Twin Cities, and Brett Favre's privates would no longer be private. You simply can't make this stuff up. The Winter Park Circus has taken center stage, but for all the wrong reasons. The product on the field hasn't been nearly as entertaining as the extravaganza off of it. At 2-3, the enigmatic Vikings are an immensely talented group of underachievers who probably don't deserve the opportunity they still have. However, the NFC North has been lousy, and as you're about to find out, a third straight division crown is still well within reach.

WEEK 7

You may find it hard to believe, but I don't hate the Packers. Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley are among my favorite players in the league. It's their uber-obnoxious, glue-sniffing fan base that drives me up a wall. The Vikings catch a couple of major breaks here. First, they get the outdoor portion of the series split out of the way early, meaning that the weather will be a month warmer for brittle Brett Favre. Second, and more importantly, the Packers are decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. The headliners are season-ending injuries to Ryan Grant, Nick Barnett, and Finley (who torched the purple for 6/128/TD in his only contest last year). The running back tandem of Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn are better suited for bagging groceries. While Rodgers will still make some plays when the Pack goes four-wide, he was sacked 14 times in the two matchups last season, and another nine in his last two games. On the other side of the ball, Brett Favre wasn't sacked once in the two matchups last year, and he chucked seven touchdowns. He's started slow, but he has a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last two games. Adrian Peterson has scored in the last four matchups between these teams, and overall, the Vikings are simply too talented across the board for a short-handed team that's being held together with duct tape. Other notable Packers whose availability is in question are: Al Harris, Atari Bigby, Donald Driver, A.J. Hawk, Brandon Chillar, Chad Clifton, Cullen Jenkins, Clay Matthews, Ryan Pickett, Mark Tauscher, and Charles Woodson. The Packers opened tryouts to the public this morning, but the only "prospect" who passed the breathalyzer was a 460 pound bearded hoarder-woman who bore a striking resemblance to Gilbert Brown. He/she will battle Bryan Bulaga for playing time Sunday night. All kidding aside, this game was won three weeks ago, when in a 24-hour span the Packers passed on Marshawn Lynch and the Vikings added Randy Moss. It should be a tightly contested game, and for what it's worth, Aaron Rodgers is 1-11 in games decided by four points or less.

WEEK 8

This is a scary Halloween matchup for the Vikings. In case you're wondering, I'll be dressing up as a matador this year, in my purple #74. Ole! There's three factors the Vikings will struggle to counter in this one: a hostile crowd, possibly the best quarterback of all time, and a colossal coaching disadvantage. The Vikings will still hold a statistical advantage in most areas of this matchup, most notably over the Patriots' 30th ranked defense. But Bill Belichick is the ultimate trickster, and I'm not betting against him on All Hallow's Eve. The Vikings are hoping that Randy Moss will come back to haunt the Patriots, but the Brady/Belichick combination has won their last 23 regular season home games!

WEEK 9

The Cardinals are 26th against the pass and 29th against the run. Their starting quarterback, Max Hall, is an undrafted rookie. Hall replaced Derek Anderson, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. Why am I even wasting time on this one, anything less than a 20-point shellacking should be considered a major disappointment. Welcome home, Larry!

WEEK 10

The Bears are an average team, and they're an epic blown call away from an average 3-3 record. They tripped up the Vikings late last season, but like the Packer home/road series split, the Vikings luck out again getting the outdoor game early. I know, it sounds weak, but I'll take Brett outside on November 14th over December 20th any day. The frigid weather stiffens his creaky joints, and it also causes shrinkage and shoddy cell phone service. If you need any further convincing, in six career games, Adrian Peterson has scored a ridiculous 11 touchdowns against the Bears and has averaged 138 yards per contest.

WEEK 11

The Packers should be much healthier in the rematch. However, Sidney Rice should be back in the fold for the Vikings as well. With matchup nightmares Moss and Rice on the outside, Harvin working the slot, Shiancoe working the middle, and Adrian being Adrian, this is the week that the Vikings' offense hits full throttle for the first time. Additionally, the Vikings have won 12 of their last 13 games at the stadium formerly known as the Metrodome. Skol.

WEEK 12

For some reason, this one has me a little worried. The Vikings are a markedly better team than the Redskins, who rank in the bottom half of the league on both sides of the ball. However, there's always one unexpected loss that you don't account for. There's the hostile crowd. There's the cold weather. There's Randy Moss hitting the FedEx Field showers early in 2005. There's Fred Smoot covering 1/3 of the Earth. This game just feels a lot like the late-season losses in Carolina and Chicago last year. I'm calling it a tentative victory for now.

WEEK 13

The Bills might be the worst team in the NFL. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, a Harvard grad, scored 48 out of 50 on his Wonderlic Test, and might be the smartest player in the league. That's neat. However, he sucks at football.

WEEK 14

As of October 21, the Giants may be the cream of the NFC crop. They're talented, balanced, well-coached, and have recent Super Bowl cred. The Vikings have won their past four against New York, which is refreshing when you consider that our Twins have lost 17 of their last 19 to the Yankees. As of right now, however, the Giants are the more solid, consistent team.

WEEK 15

In the Week 10 matchup, the only advantage I could find for the Bears was their home turf. They've lost three straight in the bubble, and they'll be outclassed again in this one.

WEEK 16

As a Viking fan, I know all too well how dangerous Michael Vick can be. The Philly fans may decide to spare Santa this year and save their snowballs for the Vikings. Between the weather, the stout opponent, the hostile environment, and Andy Reid's clear psychological edge over former understudy Brad Childress, I'm very pessimistic about this potential playoff preview. If that's not bad enough, the Vikings will be coming off an emotional victory with a short week of preparation.

WEEK 17

I expect this to be a "win and you're in" matchup for the Vikings. Thank you, schedule makers! This isn't your older brother's Detroit Lions -- this bunch is plucky. However, the Vikings won the first matchup handily. That made six straight over Detroit, and with Minnesota angling for a playoff birth, this should be a blowout.

I found it difficult to pick against the Vikings in most matchups. Not because I love them, but because on paper they are easily one of the most talented teams in the league. They've invented some interesting methods of self-destruction over the last year, but that's a difficult thing to figure in to this kind of exercise. Randy Moss not only brought game-breaking ability back to the purple, but he brought his air of swagger and confidence that's been striking fear into opponents since 1998. I've predicted a 10-6 finish, but I have six "swing games" on the schedule -- games that I can see going either way (within two notches of center in either direction). In those six swing games, I have the Vikings going 4-2. That means that in my estimation, their record could range anywhere from 6-10 to 12-4. Their stretch of three swing games from Week 10-12, which includes two crucial home divisional matchups, may ultimately decide their fate.

What do you think? Am I a jaded homer? Am I being too critical of the home team? Let's hear it!

The Pinnacle: A Hiatus From My Hiatus

I've been a die hard Minnesota sports fan for 28 years. It's hard to remember a more euphoric day.

The "Super Freak" is coming home. Like many of you, I've had an empty feeling in my heart ever since Randy Moss left the Vikings. Minnesota's last blackout was the final game of the 1997 season. Moss' arrival in 1998 single-handedly rejuvenated the fan base, and the Vikings have sold out every game since. Randy was an outcast, but he was our outcast. He scored a ridiculous 90 touchdowns in his seven seasons in purple. He's one of the all-time greats, and at 33, he can still out-run and out-jump any secondary in the league. His return to Winter Park is surreal -- I've been pinching myself for the last 12 hours, and I'm still not waking up. It's like Randy Moss has returned from the dead. He'll join an offense that features the legendary Brett Favre, and dynamic playmakers Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and eventually, Sidney Rice. Combine that with a topflight defense, and this may be the best 1-2 team in the history of the NFL. A destiny that just yesterday seemed derailed is now stronger than ever. Favre has been pining to play with Moss for years, and Zygi Wilf has made the stars align.

Impossibly overshadowed are our Central Division Champion Minnesota Twins, who welcome the New York Yankees to the playoff christening of Target Field in prime time tonight. The Bronx Bombers have been the pinstriped monkey on Minnesota's back, but this appears to be the Twins' best chance to overtake them in the Ron Gardenhire era. New York has chinks in their armor, and no past Gardenhire playoff roster has had this depth, firepower, or veteran savvy. It's our time to return to the Fall Classic.

To think, I was planning on being productive today.

Legends of the Fall

This past Monday morning started out like most other Monday mornings. After hitting the snooze a half dozen times and fending off a couple wicked elbows, I was up and at it, wiping the weekend out of my eyes. My wife had talked me into buying our two Pomeranians by committing to morning and winter dog duties. As I fumbled for my glasses, the pups waited anxiously for me at the door, a five-year routine we started five days after their adoption. I pick my battles. I'll cash in my super-husband points throughout the fantasy football season. After overfilling my cup of coffee, we were out the door.

I immediately noticed that something was different. To my delight, there was a cool bite to the air. I knew it all too well; I'd missed it. For a brief moment, I let my mind drift back a decade to the days of pep rallies and post routes. I quickly have to remind myself that, as a washed up 28-year old, my morning conditioning now consists of chasing my dog, who's chasing my other dog, who's chasing a rabbit through the woods. It's a pathetic existence. I'm sure you can relate. But I digress - back to that crisp morning chill. Like a double rainbow, it signifies something much bigger to me. What does it mean? Simple. It represents the culmination of a long baseball season intersecting with a promising new football season. Fellow sports fans, welcome to the most wonderful time of the year.

I'd be hard-pressed to recall an autumn that had more hope attached to it than the one we're entering. Our Twins are pulling away down the stretch, and for the first time under Ron Gardenhire's management, they have a realistic chance of advancing past the Yankees and making a serious World Series run. After losing 12 straight to the Bronx Bombers, they've split their last four, and this time around they have the offensive firepower to compete. Just down the road, the Vikings are returning all 22 starters from a final four squad. They're on the short list of Super Bowl contenders, and Brett Favre has reignited the locker room and the fan base. I can confidently say in mid-August that Minnesota has two legitimate title contenders, and their paths are overlapping right before us. But it's even more than that. It's the new stadium and the old quarterback. It's the hometown hero and the Metrodome magic. It's the unfamiliar national spotlight, and the seemingly never-ending optimism for "next year" giving way to "it's our time." Yes, the stars are aligning, and for once, other cities envy us. If just for one year, we're like... like... Boston.

Don't take this for granted, Minnesota. Make this fall about friends and family, beers and brats, and the teams that we love. Take some time to soak it in. Take some time to make some memories. Opportunities like this don't come often enough for us; we have to make them last. Sub-zero temperatures, and worse, mediocrity, are always right around the corner.

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions

Admittedly, my board does not coincide with most "expert" predictions you'll find across the interweb. But until proven otherwise, I'm going to assume that I'm right and they're wrong. That's how I roll (just ask my wife, she loves that).

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints** - Fresh off their magical Super Bowl run, MVP Drew Brees and the Saints draw the league's 6th easiest schedule. Head Coach Sean Payton will continue to rotate a seemingly endless supply of fresh backs and receivers in and out of Brees' huddle. Outstanding Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams returns most of his ball-hawking defense, including underrated cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer. The Saints are locked and loaded for another shot at the title.

2.) San Francisco 49ers** - Hear me out. With the retirement of Kurt Warner, the Downy-soft NFC West is the 49ers' for the taking. San Francisco wisely used both of their first round picks on offensive linemen to protect the slowly improving Alex Smith. The 2005 #1 overall pick has an extremely talented trifecta of playmakers to distribute the rock to in tight end Vernon Davis, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and running back Frank Gore. Defensively, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin is one of the league's most underrated players. What gets by Franklin doesn't get by freakish middle linebacker Patrick Willis, the best defensive player in the NFL. The 49ers will get fat on a cupcake schedule, and they should finish with their best record since Jeff Garcia was hooking up with Terrell Owens in 2001.

3.) Minnesota Vikings* - Brett Favre unofficially retired this morning. He unofficially unretired this afternoon. Unlike many Vikings fans, I never flinched. The Vikings will return all 22 starters, Favre included, from a team that had no business losing the NFC title game last season. From Adrian Peterson to Jared Allen, the Vikings have the most talented roster in the NFL, as was reflected by their league-leading eight Pro Bowl selections in 2009. They have a wonderful blend of veteran leadership and youthful talent, and anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would be a disappointment. Vikings' cynics declare the team "cursed" by the Herschel Walker trade and the Drew Pearson push-off. With this year's Super Bowl in Dallas, Vikings' enthusiasts are insisting it's "destiny." Hogwash. The Vikings were the best team in the NFL last season, and nothing's changed. It's that simple.

4.) Dallas Cowboys* - I can't quite figure out the hype surrounding the Cowboys. The last time we saw them, they were up in arms over the Vikings running up the score in the divisional playoffs. You surely remember left tackle Flozell Adams going down early in the game, and the carnage that ensued. The 5-time Pro Bowler has since been released. He'll be replaced by Doug Free, the same saloon door swing tackle who replaced him in the aforementioned 34-3 massacre. Sure, adding rookie Dez Bryant to the aerial attack is nice, but not nearly enough to justify the media buildup of the club. Bryant joins 2009 breakout star Miles Austin and the dependable Jason Witten to give Tony Romo another weapon. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff and linebacker DeMarcus Ware give opposing offensive coordinators nightmares, and all skepticism aside, the Cowboys should have no problem winning the NFC East on talent alone. But until Tony Romo proves himself in a big game, I can't project anything more.

5.) Green Bay Packers - (Deep exhale). Much to the chagrin of Vikings fans, Aaron Rodgers is the best young quarterback in the game, and the Packers will push the Vikings hard for the NFC North crown in 2010. They improved their weak offensive line with the addition of rookie Bryan Bulaga, and Rodgers has a deep pool of talented pass catchers at his disposal. Running back Ryan Grant is ordinary but steady. Playmaking cornerback Charles Woodson is coming off an incredible 2009, and entering the second year of defensive whiz Dom Capers' new 3-4 scheme, the Packers second rated defense shouldn't miss a beat. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to be sick.

6.) Atlanta Falcons - Workhorse Michael Turner is healthy, and once again, Atlanta is garnering a lot of preseason buzz. The Falcons are coming off the first back to back winning seasons in their history, and all conversation begins and ends with budding star quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan had some growing pains in his sophomore season, but he's poised to take the next step with star receiver Roddy White and future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez. Rookie linebacker Sean Witherspoon and free agent cornerback Dunta Robinson should instantly improve the defense. Unlike many, I don't see the Falcons as a realistic threat to the Saints in the NFC South, but I think a third straight winning season and a return to the playoffs are within reach.

AFC

1.) San Diego Chargers** - A perennial playoff disappointment, I'm predicting more of the same from San Diego in 2010. The team is still in contract squabbles with receiver Vincent Jackson, linebacker Shawne Merriman, and most importantly, left tackle Marcus McNeill. I expect McNeill to be taken care of, and even without the other two, the Chargers have a clear path to the top seed with the league's 4th softest schedule. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates are money, and as odd as it may sound, explosive rookie Ryan Mathews is a big upgrade over the celebrated LaDanian Tomlinson at running back. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers defense isn't scaring anybody. For that reason, I fully expect an early playoff exit for the media's Super Bowl favorite.

2.) Indianapolis Colts** - Yawn. Another year, another first round bye for the boringly spectacular Colts. If ever there was a team immune to the Super Bowl runner-up hangover, it's Indy. The Colts' 115 wins from 2000-2009 are the most by any team in any decade. Featuring the uninspiring Joseph Addai, the Colt's had the league's worst rushing attack in 2009. Yet Peyton Manning, and his arsenal led by Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, ranked 7th in the NFL in points. The pass rushing tandem of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis sets the tone on defense. When Bob Sanders is on the field (which is never a guarantee), the secondary is very good. The 2009 roster is still largely intact, and Manning, the NFL's only 4-time MVP, will again keep the Colts in the Super Bowl conversation.

3.) New York Jets* - The Jets are a polarizing team. There are those who are buying the hype, and those who are scoffing at it. Obviously, I'm one of the former. With this lofty projection, I'm clearly assuming the Darrelle Revis contract situation gets resolved. Already an elite pass defense, the Jets added Antonio Cromartie, stud rookie Kyle Wilson, pass rushing legend Jason Taylor, and a healthy Kris Jenkins. A rock solid offensive line will pave the way for the second year backfield foundation of Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene. Ladanian Tomlinson will keep Greene fresh, and Santonio Holmes provides Sanchez a speedy target with a Super Bowl pedigree. Head Coach Rex Ryan is a defensive genius who oozes confidence, and he's made a believer out of me.

4.) Baltimore Ravens* - The Ravens aren't going to blind side anybody in 2010; they're legit Super Bowl contenders. Long known for their dominating defense, they've become very balanced. An outstanding offensive line will protect emerging star Joe Flacco, and new addition Anquan Boldin is sure to help a subpar passing game. By season's end, electric running back Ray Rice will be a household name. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are in the twilight of their careers, but defensive lineman Haloti Ngata and linebacker Terrell Suggs lead the next wave of defensive talent. The Ravens' achilles heal is the health of their secondary. Reed's early season availability (hip) is in question, and they've already lost starting cornerback Domonique Foxworth for the season. They'll have to outscore teams, but for once, they have the firepower.

5.) Houston Texans - OK, this is going to be the year. The Texans have been a fashionable sleeper pick the last few seasons, but have yet to put it all together. However, as AFC stalwarts like Pittsburgh and New England have begun to deteriorate, the Texans' talent has ripened. On offense, Matt Schaub can light up the scoreboard, chucking to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. On defense, the core of Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, and Bernard Pollard should make enough plays to mask a pair of young cornerbacks. They'll be tested with a tough schedule, but the time is right for Houston to finally crack the postseason.

6.) Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs will become the darling story of the NFL this year. They've put together a very solid nucleus of young talent, headlined by breakout running back Jamal Charles. They added veteran leaders Thomas Jones and Ryan Lilja to compliment their youth. Star rookie safety Eric Berry joins the budding cornerback duo of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr in the secondary, instantly improving a bad defense. I could certainly be a year or two early on this call, but I'm betting that a soft schedule, and the addition of coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, will expedite the maturation process. I'm on an island with this one.

Whew. That turned into a bigger project than I expected. Am I right? Am I crazy? Feel free to discuss, but be sure to come with a solid rationale - I've gone deep in my analysis and I'm sticking to my guns!

Random Thoughts From a Cluttered Mind

:: We've all seen the spike in his traditional statistics, but here's something for you sabermetric seamheads. Delmon Young's .895 OPS (On-Base% + Slugging%) is now 218 points higher than it was through 93 games last year (.677). He's putting together a memorable season, even if he still looks like a lost Boy Scout chasing butterflies in left field. ::

:: If anyone is actually buying the talk that Brett Favre is still considering retirement, shoot me an email. I've got some oceanfront property in Eagan I'll give you a great deal on. ::

:: Is J.J. Hardy Rob McElhenney's celebrity doppleganger, or is Rob McElhenney J.J. Hardy's celebrity doppleganger? Would you rather work at Target Field, or Paddy's Pub? Is Philadelphia really any sunnier than Minneapolis? These are just some of the things I ponder in the minutes between J.J. Hardy swinging and J.J. Hardy reaching first base. ::

:: Did anyone else squirm when Adrian Peterson made a cameo last week on Entourage, in the exact same episode that Ari Gold made a pitch to get an NFL team in Los Angeles? ::

:: It's been three whole paragraphs since I talked about Delmon Young. On a night where Matt Garza throws a no-hitter, all Delmon does is rack up another four hits, move into 6th in AL batting average, and 4th in AL RBI's. Call me crazy, but I'm not backing off my opinion that I still would not reverse that trade today. ::

:: The Timberwolves just traded for Delonte West. I guess that's the closest they were going to get to LeBron James. ::

:: David Kahn continues to provide refreshing comic relief for the train wreck at 600 1st Avenue. In a recent interview with NBA TV's Chris Webber, the Timberwolves VP of Basketball Operations came with his best stuff yet. When Webber asked Kahn about Darko Milicic, Kahn dropped back-to-back-to-back punchlines. Without ever coming up for air, he compared the colossal bust to "manna from heaven," compared his passing skills to Vlade Divac's, and compared his early career to Webber's. The former 5-time All Star and NBA Rookie of the Year was able to laugh off the first two, but he clearly did not appreciate being the butt of the third joke. In a subsequent interview on KSTP radio, Kahn responded to Webber's justified irritation by calling him a "schmuck." For an encore, the pretentious Kahn began the next sentence with "Methinks." As a child, I often wondered what it would be like if Mr. Rogers were to slick back his hair and ingest massive amounts of peyote. Methinks I've found my answer. ::

:: Playing in a lot of fantasy football leagues is one thing. But right now, I'm on the hook to be the commissioner of three. I need to reevaluate that decision. It's all fun and games until Robert Meachem puts you in the witness protection program (controversial scoring incident below). ::

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview

Now that the vuvuzela has been silenced for another four years, a new buzz has invaded the sports world. Yes, fantasy football preseason is in full swing, and it's music to our bleeding ears. One of the more difficult tasks in our preseason preparation is assigning fair value to the hometown players we're exposed to all year. In this post, I am of course referring to the Minnesota Vikings. There are two common traps fantasy owners fall into. The most common mistake is overvaluing Vikings. We all know the owners in our league who will overspend on anyone wearing purple and gold, in an attempt to double dip on Sunday Funday. They're an easy mark, and the consequences should be obvious. Homers never win, because they draft with their hearts and not with their heads. The second, and more painful trap, is being fully aware of one's own fanhood, and overcorrecting for fear of becoming the aforementioned homer. I've fallen victim to this in the past, and trust me, there's nothing worse than watching the Vikings explode on a Sunday when you chose not to grab a piece of the purple pie. It's that same feeling you got in the pit of your stomach when you weren't invited to the coed margarita hot tub party. But enough about me, let's attempt to take an objective look at your 2010 fantasy Minnesota Vikings.

ADRIAN PETERSON

There's no other place to start than Adrian Peterson. Peterson entered 2009 as the prince of fantasy football, but by the end of the season, Chris Johnson had dethroned him. Entering 2010, the two are locked in a national battle for the #1 overall spot. This is an instance where, being closer to the situation, I think local owners should be downgrading a Viking. Here, we put Peterson's flaws under the microscope year round, and justifiably so. National experts are looking at the bottom line stats and the superhuman highlights, and from 10,000 feet, Peterson does look like a surefire top two pick. But he's not. Take a deep breath, homers.

I have some real concerns. Peterson's YPC dropped for the second straight season, to 4.4, as the offensive line struggled to open holes with any kind of consistency. Adrian was dropped in the backfield more than any back in the league, and the Vikings did nothing to improve their pathetic run blocking this offseason. A more glaring issue for Vikings fans is Adrian's slippery mitts. He's fumbled 17 times in the last two seasons. Even if your league doesn't subtract points for fumbles, it's costing him scoring opportunities, and it will undoubtedly cost him carries. Which, naturally, leads me to Toby Gerhart. The second rounder accumulated nearly 700 carries in his four years at Stanford, and fumbled only once every 67.1 carries (a big upgrade to Adrian's rate of 1/42.3 over the last two seasons). Furthermore, he racked up 27 touchdowns last season. It would make a lot of sense for the Vikings to work the young bruiser into the mix near the goal line. Not only is he more sure-handed, but it would be wise to start prolonging Peterson's career by protecting him from violent goal line collisions. Chester Taylor stole just one rushing touchdown from Peterson last season. Gerhart could easily steal 8-10. Finally, with Brett Favre under center, the Vikings are a passing team. Peterson lost 49 carries from 2008 to 2009, and there's no chance of him approaching the 363 carry mark he set in 2008 with Favre chucking again. With slight trepidation, I have Peterson ranked 4th overall.

Chris Johnson was on another planet last season. He enters 2010 without any major questions. The loss of aging center Kevin Mawae and the toll of 408 touches are worth noting, but not enough to unseat him as the clear #1. Keep in mind, that even a 25% reduction in last year's output would still net 1,880 total yards and 12 TD. And with nobody to share the touches with, there's no reason to expect a significant drop off for CJ. Maurice Jones-Drew feels like a much safer #2 than Peterson. He's missed just one game in the last four years, he's a 3-down back with superb hands, and he's possibly the best goal-line back in the league. Ray Rice is on the fast-track to fantasy superstardom. I expect him to grace the covers of many a fantasy magazine next season. He's a MoJo clone, with the only major difference being that he still has to deal with pesky vultures Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain.

To me, ranking Peterson 4th seems like the perfect balance between homerism and overcorrection. Despite all his negatives, he's still probably the most talented back in the NFL. Shockingly, he hasn't missed a game in two straight seasons, and he's the only back in the league to rank in the top 5 in fantasy points in 2007, 2008, and 2009. His talent alone should keep that streak alive. I can't in good conscience rank him lower than Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, or Michael Turner. Gore hasn't played a full season since 2006, and was just good (not great) from 2007-2009. When are people going to stop buying the hype? He's inconsistent, injury prone, and a vastly inferior talent to Peterson; his ceiling is Peterson's basement. Steven Jackson is a beast, but like Gore, he's also failed to play a full season since 2006, and his scoring opportunities are severely limited in St. Louis. Michael Turner is coming off a badly injured ankle, and with Jerious Norwood healthy and Jason Snelling in the mix, it seems that he's in line for a workload reduction of closer to 300 carries. He also doesn't play on 3rd downs, and is invisible in the passing game. He has 22 catches for 147 yards in his 6-year career (Peterson contributed 43 for 436 last season alone). So while I still think Adrian will still be a top 5 running back, the former prince will not be worth the king's ransom required to land him in Minnesota fantasy leagues.

TOBY GERHART

My fondness for Gerhart has been well chronicled on this site. He's a first round NFL talent, who had no business falling to the 51st overall pick in April's draft. As far as his fantasy value, I see a direct correlation between the overvaluing of Adrian Peterson and the undervaluing of Gerhart. Of the top seven running backs who I discussed in the previous paragraphs, Gerhart is easily the most talented respective backup. In recent years, running back-by-committees have muddied the definition of "handcuff." Where is the line drawn between a handcuff and a committee back? That was rhetorical, but the point I'm trying to make is that for the price of a handcuff, you may be buying into a more valuable low-level committee situation. Gerhart is a guy who can protect the ball at the stripe, protect the lead late in games, and protect the lifespan of Adrian Peterson (especially in blowout situations). So even if Adrian Peterson, a man who actively pursues punishment, can somehow stay healthy for a third straight season, Gerhart could still have value as a bye week/injury filler when the schedule is right. He's the unquestioned #2 on the Viking's roster, yet he's currently being drafted #140 overall in ESPN mocks, in the same vicinity as scraps like Tashard Choice, Larry Johnson, Arian Foster, Mike Bell, and Derrick Ward. The guy just can't get any respect, and if you land him in this portion of the draft, it's highway robbery.

BRETT FAVRE

You may have noticed that I'm operating under the assumption that Brett's coming back. Well, I'm 99% sure, only because "100%" and "Brett Favre" can never be accurately used in the same sentence. Favre was the third best fantasy quarterback last season, trumping guys like Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady. Yet he's fallen well behind all of them in mocks (as well as Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers). He's currently being drafted as the 8th quarterback, just ahead of the underwhelming Joe Flacco and the overhyped Jay Cutler. It begs the question: What's changed from 2009? Favre is coming off his best statistical season at the age of 40, has all of his weapons back, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Logic simply doesn't apply to this man, so we should stop trying to apply it. Is standard cleanup surgery on his ankle really going to derail him, when last season's bicep surgery on his throwing arm caused no ill effect? Sure, a good case could be made for each of the younger signal callers being drafted ahead of him, but the fact that he's being drafted a full two rounds later than guys like Romo and Rivers is baffling. Especially when experts continue to warn us about injury concerns surrounding the NFL's Ironman, and in the next sentence, endorse quarterbacks who've missed more time in the last few years than Favre has missed in his entire life. As of right now, Brett Favre is easily the best value of any quarterback in Fantasyland. Draft or bid accordingly, grab yourself a margarita, and enjoy the view.

SIDNEY RICE

Nobody benefited more from Brett Favre than Sidney Rice. His 83 catches for 1,312 yards and 8 TD's vaulted him to the #8 WR ranking, and certified him as an up-and-coming star. His 15.8 YPC was outstanding, as he became Favre's favorite downfield target. He lacks elite top end speed, but he more than makes up for it in size, body control, hand-eye coordination, and sticky fingers. In short, he's the polar opposite of former South Carolina teammate Troy Williamson. That's incredibly high praise. He's currently being drafted 11th among WR's, in the neighborhood of Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Steve Smith (Car), and Anquan Boldin. This seems a touch low to me. I expect the Pro Bowler to once again finish in the back end of the top 10 WR's. His lingering hip injury is a bit of a concern, and will certainly be something to monitor in the preseason. However, with other top receivers catching balls from unproven QB's like Chad Henne, Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb, Matt Moore, and Matt Stafford, Sidney's bromance with Favre feels like a pretty safe situation to buy into.

PERCY HARVIN

Electric. There's no better word to describe the 2009 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's a threat to score on every play, whether he's split out, in the slot, in the backfield, or returning kicks. That being said, I think he's being overvalued on the basis of style points. I'm still not sold that the coaching staff has defined a consistent role for him, and what's more, I'm not sure they have the creative chops to get the most out of his diverse skill set. What we're left with is a boom-or-bust teaser who cracked 100 yards receiving just once last season. More troubling to me, is that there's been no news of any progress towards solving Harvin's chronic migraines (pun intended). He missed just one game last season with the ailment, but he was nonexistent in several others, after missing weeks of practice and leaving fantasy owners with headaches of their own. I love Percy Harvin as an NFL player, but I'm skeptical of him as a consistent fantasy contributor. Right now he's being drafted just inside the top 20 WR's, a spot ahead of the reliable but boring Hines Ward. Are you ordering the dependable cheeseburger, or the hit-or-miss fish tacos? Pass the Heinz.

BERNARD BERRIAN
Coming off a nice 2008 as the Vikings go-to receiver, the sky was supposed to be the limit for Berrian in 2009. But before Favre had even traded denim for spandex, Berrian's season was hamstrung. Injured in the first preseason game, his gimpy hamstring never had a chance to fully recover. He tried to fight through it all year, but missed out on any real opportunities to gel with Favre. I imagine that the pain in his leg paled in comparison to the pain of watching Favre turn Percy Harvin into the Rookie of the Year, and Sidney Rice into a Pro Bowler. In the last game of the season, Berrian finally showed a spark. After never topping 75 yards once during the regular season, he grabbed 9 balls for 102 yards in the NFC Championship game. On replay, we all saw Berrian lurking wide open down the right sideline, as Favre forced the infamous interception in the direction of his more trusted target, Rice. Be right back, I need a drink.

As we come into the 2010 season, Berrian finds himself in a weird spot. He seems to have been passed by both Harvin and Rice on the depth chart. Harvin's a more natural fit for the slot in three receiver sets. Who will line up opposite of Rice in two-wide sets has yet to be determined. Berrian is still very capable of helping your fantasy squad if the opportunity presents itself. He's currently being drafted as the 45th receiver. At that spot, I see him as a great value. He's the same guy who was talented enough to rack up 964 yards and 7 TD's with Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson taking snaps in 2008. The depth chart is still in flux, Rice's hip is healing slower than expected, and Harvin may be on the injury report every week of his career. The chips fell all wrong for Bernard in 2009, but if they fall right in 2010, you could be looking at a top 25 receiver who you scored for pennies on the dollar. Take a flier.

VISANTHE SHIANCOE
Shiancoe was a red zone beast last season. His 11 touchdowns were second among tight ends, and he finished 6th in fantasy scoring at his position. Ignored between the 20's, his value was dependent on touchdowns, and he delivered. However, in fantasy football, yardage is a more dependable measurable than touchdowns when formulating predictions. Touchdowns can be fluky, and the human tripod would be hard pressed to exceed what he did in 2009. Did I really just write that?

RYAN LONGWELL
Longwell has a strong, accurate leg, and he kicks indoors for a high powered offense. These are the kinds of things we look for in a fantasy kicker, and Longwell should have no problem finding himself in the top 5 again this season (he finished 3rd in 2009). If he's able to turn a handful of his league-leading 54 PAT's into field goals, he could rise even higher.

D/ST
The Vikings are currently being drafted as the 6th D/ST. They led the league in sacks and forced fumbles last season, and if Ray Edwards can put aside his contractual quandaries, he appears poised to join Jared Allen as part of a premiere pass rushing tandem. The Vikings will be stout against the run once again, even with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson most likely sidelined early in the season. However, the Vikings already lackluster secondary took a major hit with the loss of Cedric Griffin, who's ACL injury will keep him in street clothes with Henderson for a chunk of 2010. Improving on their putrid 11 interceptions will be a tall task, and the pass defense will thwart the overall potential of the Vikings D/ST. Percy Harvin's return skills will be the wild card, and should keep the unit in top 5 contention.

When you remove the fan from the fantasy, you end up with something closer to reality. Can you handle the truth? If not, be sure to err on the side of hot tub.