All Drama

The Minnesota Vikings have reached uncharted levels of turbulence, which is an astonishing feat for an organization whose history is checkered with bizarre crisis. Adrian “AD (All Day)” Peterson was not only the face of the franchise, but he’d been the identity of Minnesota sports and entertainment for nearly a decade. In fact, many ran with the moniker “Purple Jesus,” on account of his otherworldly physical being and outspoken Christianity. Athletes should never be held up as role models, but he was surely the exception. 

Until he wasn’t. 

Still, a large segment of the fan base remains willing to forgive and move forward with the future Hall of Famer in purple. Insultingly, Peterson has stiff-armed said forgiveness. Instead of owning his self-imposed adversity, he’s chosen to flip the script and play the victim card. 

General Manager Rick Spielman, who’s earning every penny of his paychecks these days, has been left with exactly two options…

Option 1: Play Hardball 

The Pros: With Peterson under contract through 2017, the Vikings have “play for us or play for nobody” leverage. At 30, he’d be the oldest member of the starting offense, but he’s already proven the ability to bend the laws of nature. His presence in the backfield would likely make the team 2-3(?) wins better in 2015, and would be invaluable to 22-year-old QB Teddy Bridgewater. Peterson’s presence would completely change defensive game plans, forcing the opponent to respect and commit resources to the run game. Opponents could no longer pin their ears back against a shaky offensive line. With Peterson on board, the 2015 Vikings would be a playoff contender. 

The Cons: Wouldn’t it be nice if it were that simple? Unfortunately, everything out of Peterson’s “Triangle of Authority” (Adrian, new wife Ashley and agent Ben Dogra) has screamed that he wants a fresh start somewhere else. He could choose to sit out for a second consecutive season, and forego the generous $12.75M he’s owed, but the far more likely scenario is that he’d suit up and drag the drama into the season. 

For an organization that’s building a new stadium and a fresh young foundation centered around Bridgewater, prolonging what’s becoming an irreconcilable standoff may not be worth the headache. From a business perspective, attempts to regain goodwill with fans, press and sponsors would be awkward at best. 

Option 2: Trade Him 

The Pros: The list of suitors may realistically be as shallow as Arizona and Tampa Bay. Yahoo!’s Charles Robinson has reported that the Cardinals are “one thousand percent in (on Peterson)” and would be willing to trade their R2 pick (No. 55 overall). On the surface, a late second seems like a pittance for an MVP-caliber player, but age, salary and baggage weigh heavily into Peterson’s valuation. 

The 2015 draft is deep with RB talent, so if the organization favors a committee approach (we still don’t know exactly how they view impressive 2014 rookie Jerick McKinnon), they’d have an extra bullet and numerous young, cheap options. For reference, picks 55-57 of last year’s draft were Jeremy Hill, Cody Latimer and Carlos Hyde. 

While many are opposed to “selling low,” the truth is that Peterson’s trade value will never be higher than it is now. Next season, he’ll be a year older and $2M more expensive ($14.75M). The team surely wouldn’t get anything near a R2 pick in trade a year from now. In fact, with no more dead money on his contract in 2016, Peterson would be a cut candidate even if he were healthy and happy.

The Cons: Subtracting a generational talent from the roster will undoubtedly cost the team wins, at least in the short term. There are no guarantees with draft picks, and at this stage of free agency, most of the money freed up would likely be pocketed for future use.

Conclusion: 

Even with Peterson, the Vikings wouldn’t realistically be in position to advance through the NFC playoffs, so taking the long view seems like the most logical approach. A R2 pick is a bitter pill to swallow, but I believe it’s the better of two bad options.

Mocking the Vikings

1 (8) - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville | 6'2", 214 lbs.
Granted, you can't spell "April" without "liar," but what once seemed like an impossibility is shaping into a reality. In fact, the NFL's inexplicable smear campaign on Bridgewater has even elicited whispers of "second round." In my estimation, if he is indeed there at No. 8, drafting anybody else would be overthinking it, and a franchise-altering mistake. Intelligent, driven, poised and precise, Bridgewater works the pocket like a veteran, and his combination of escapability and accuracy-on-the-move will be extending drives for the next decade. Highly productive in a pro-style offense, he may already be better than 12-15 NFL starters, and it would be no surprise if he unseated Matt Cassel right out of the gate (think Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn). The Vikings have pounced on falling offensive stars in the past (Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and to a lesser degree Cordarelle Patterson), and landing what I believe to be the draft's one true franchise QB at No. 8 would be a similar fortune.

2 (40) - Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU | 6'3", 243 lbs. 
A disruptive blitzer and an opportunistic playmaker, Van Noy is, in many ways, a discounted Khalil Mack. The team addressed the defensive line and secondary in free agency, and this gives Zimmer's weak LB group an intelligent, versatile weapon who can get into the opponent's backfield with regularity.

3 (72) - Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson | 6'4", 211 lbs. 

The Vikings certainly have greater needs, but their extra 3rd rounder affords them an opportunity to take a swing for the fences. A lanky height/speed specimen (4.42 40) who's drawn Justin Hunter comparisons, Bryant gives Norv Turner the true field-stretching deep threat that this roster currently lacks. One of Bridgewater's only real film nitpicks is his deep accuracy, so a long target with a 39" vertical would be a welcome addition. He's definitely on the raw side, both physically (very skinny) and technically (routes/hands), but the trio of Bridgewater (21), Bryant (22) and Cordarrelle Patterson (23) is a strong foundation for the future of this passing game. Moreover, polished veteran Greg Jennings—who I'd expect to make sweet music with Bridgewater—buys Patterson/Bryant much-needed time for fundamental development.

3 (96) - Christian Jones, ILB, FSU | 6'3", 240 lbs. 

And just like that, the Vikings have turned an embarrassing weakness into a potential strength. Pairing Jones with Van Noy ensures that the days of special teamers playing meaningful LB snaps are over. Sure, I'm pulling hard for Michael Mauti (who currently sits atop the MLB depth chart), but I can't put my faith in a guy with three ACL tears. Jones boasts freakish athletic attributes across the board and, like Van Noy, can play multiple positions. The knock on Jones is between the ears—his mental game is too often an anchor on his physical upside. Enter Mike Zimmer. Van Noy and Jones are both so versatile that I'm not sure exactly where they fit at the next level, but I'd be incredibly intrigued to see how they'd be deployed in the Z-fense. 

4 (104) - Dion Bailey, S, USC | 6'0", 201 lbs. 

Did I say versatility? Former linebacker Dion Bailey is still learning the ins and outs of the safety position, but like Van Noy and free agent acquisition Captain Munnerlyn, Bailey has a knack for the big play. Clearly, neither Jamarca Sanford nor Mistral Raymond are the answer next to Harrison Smith, and Bailey's athleticism and versatility should make him an immediate contributor.

5 (136) - Walt Aikens, CB, Liberty | 6'1, 205 lbs. 

The Munnerlyn signing certainly helped, but Captain is small, and you can never have too many CBs in today's NFL. In terms of size, the only difference between Aikens and Xavier Rhodes is five pounds. Aikens is not truly a small-school product—he was kicked off the Illinois team for misdemeanor theft in 2012, so there are some character concerns. Again... enter Mike Zimmer. Aikens has the prototypical size and natural talent to become a starting-caliber NFL CB, he just needs to be coached up. He's not unlike Christian Jones in that way.  

6 (168) - Isaiah Crowell, RB, Alabama State | 5'11", 224 lbs. 

Crowell is so much more than just a Toby Gerhart replacement—he has the natural ability to become 29YO Adrian Peterson's successor. He might be the most naturally talented running back in this year's class, leading many to call him "this year's Christine Michael." The rub—of course there's a rub if you're getting a premium talent in R6—is that the former SEC Freshman of the Year was kicked off the Georgia team after three different weapons arrests. Despite keeping his nose clean at Alabama State, entitlement and maturity issues lingered. The only things seemingly standing between Crowell and NFL stardom are humility and desire. I can't imagine a better landing spot than behind all-time great Adrian Peterson.

7 (200) - Keith Wenning, QB, Ball State | 6'3", 218 lbs. 

I'm leaving the draft without a Charlie Johnson fix, and that sucks, but this draft quickly became about impact difference makers... words not typically associated with offensive guards. Here's hoping 2013 6th-rounder Jeff Baca or FA addition Vladimir Ducasse can at least push Johnson this season. Wenning is a personal favorite of mine. He's a prolific small-school project with a good blend of size, mechanics and arm strength—a very solid foundation to build from. I'd expect that this pick means the Vikings wash their hands of the Ponder debacle—he'd be a QB2 upgrade for most teams, in exchange for a 2015 6th-rounder (Gabbert set the market). You can never have too many good QBs, and assuming Bridgewater becomes a perennial Pro Bowler, you're suddenly blessed with a Schaub/Kolb/Flynn/Cousins situation. 

The Armchair QB's Notebook

Disclaimer: I am not a draft expert.

These are merely layman's observations from a fantasy football writer and former high school QB. A big thanks goes out to the fine folks at draftbreakdown.com for enabling me to ditch work for amateur hour film study. I'll be updating and adding to my QB notes throughout the draft process.

1. TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, LOUISVILLE
Games Watched So Far: Ohio, Miami

- 6'3", 205 lbs.
- Natural, smooth.
- Athletic, but not a runner. Uses mobility to extend plays/pocket, where he throws very well on the run (both directions).
- Pinpoint darts into small windows at short/intermediate levels.
- Not as dependable on deep throws.
- Poised, smart.
- Easily the most polished QB prospect in this class.
- A Day 1 starter wherever he lands.

VIKINGS SLANT: He's the only guy I'd be happy with at No. 8, and I'd endorse a trade up if he begins to slide.

2. BLAKE BORTLES, UCF

Games Watched So Far: Penn State, Louisville, UConn

- 6'4", 227 lbs.

- Size/athleticism is A+.

- No fear. Competitor. Totally unflappable.

- I've seen Andrew Luck comparisons, and physically I can buy it, but he has a major flaw: his lower body mechanics are a mess. Instead of stepping into his throws and driving the ball, he opens up and loses his hips, causing loss of velocity and inconsistent accuracy/ball placement. 

- His actual arm strength is hard to even judge, because he doesn't get his lower half into his throws.

- I would think this is coachable, but as of now he's a project who's nowhere near Sunday-ready. He'd be a pick-six magnet the way he floats his out routes.

VIKINGS SLANT: Because of the physical potential, he's somebody I'd be fine moving back into the late-first round for, but you'll need to have a Band-Aid in place for 2014.

3. DEREK CARR, FRESNO STATE

Games Watched So Far: USC, New Mexico, Rutgers

- 6'2", 215 lbs.

- Golden arm. This kid can spin it.

- Athletic/mobile enough.

- Unlike Bortles, seems very flappable. Get pressure in his face and he resembles Cutler: overconfidence in supreme arm talent resulting in back-foot idiot throws. I'm not sure that this flaw is coachable.

- Only saw him in shotgun.

- He's gonna make people drool in shorts. Expect stock to rise as draft nears.

- I think if you can keep the pocket clean he could be a stud. 

VIKINGS SLANT: I'd be very happy with him at 2.08, and wouldn't be against moving up a bit if he's sliding. Would compete for a Day 1 starting job.

4. JOHNNY MANZIEL, TEXAS A&M

Games Watched So Far: Alabama, LSU

- 6'0", 205 lbs.

- I could be totally wrong on this.

- He's going to get killed.

- Joystick mobility. I feel like I'm watching Madden. Ultra-rare ability to extend plays.

- Thrives on broken plays and improvisation, often escaping out the back of the pocket. He's simply too fast for college defenses. Will these things translate to the next level?

- Oozes competitiveness and leadership.

- The Russell Wilson comparisons don't compute at all for me. Wilson plays controlled, and within himself. Manziel is the exact opposite.

- Wants to put the team on his back, and will singlehandedly win or lose games. 

- Will flip field position—either direction—on any given play. 

- Good enough arm, but throws it up for grabs too much for my liking (Mike Evans).

- You can't rein him in, or he's no longer JFF. The chaos is who he is. Ride or die.

VIKINGS SLANT: I'm not willing to take him at No. 8, and he's unlikely to be there anyways. I'm worried that the speed of NFL defenses will neutralize what he does best. Rick has one more chance to get it right at QB... JFF would take some serious balls.

Protect the Pig!

Minnesota @ Iowa Preview

By Jason Rossow

The 4-0 Golden Gophers travel south to take on the 2-2 Hawkeyes on Saturday. The past dozen years, it seems like the Hawkeyes have been riding momentum into this rivalry game, while Minnesota has been in a tailspin. Well, 2012 sees the rolls reversed, as the Gophers are off to their best start since 2008, and the Hawkeyes come limping into the Big10 season at 2-2 after losing at home to Central Michigan last week. Despite all of that, Iowa is a 7-point favorite.

The key matchup of the game is how Minnesota’s front seven will do against the Iowa running game. Despite their struggles, Iowa’s running game is its usual downhill, well-oiled self. This year’s feature back (after the first eight guys went down) is Mark Weisman. He came into the fall camp as the 3rd string fullback, but since being named the starter has gone for 330 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 2 games. Meanwhile, the Gophers defense is built on speed, and has sacrificed size to do so. The Gophers defensive ends are very small, and their linebackers are also on the small side. Both starting safeties are listed at under 200 pounds, which is small in today’s world. The ability to stop the run and put eight or nine in the box will be the second most important aspect of the game (after the turnover battle).

Injuries are another big piece for the Gophers, as it appears Max Shortell will make his second consecutive start in the absence of MarQueis Gray. Gophers center Zach Mottla is doubtful, left guard Tommy Olson is doubtful and nickel back Martez Shabazz is out.  Patching together the O-line is going to be difficult against a solid D-line. If a third starter goes down along the line during the game, it could get real ugly up front.

If the game is close, and low scoring, Iowa gets my nod as the favorite, as they have one of the best kickers in the country and a solid punter. Meanwhile the Gophers are one of the worst kicking and punting teams in the nation.

Both teams are at the crossroads…. a win for Iowa over rival Minnesota puts them back on track with a 1-0 conference start, and momentum heading into the Big10 season despite the poor the start. A loss leaves them at 2-3 overall, and a trophy case empty yet again. 

For Minnesota, a loss to a struggling Iowa team will leave the fan base second guessing what progress Kill has actually made. A win really cranks the momentum to new levels. The Gophers would go into their bye week 5-0, and ranked—or right on the edge of—the Top 25. Moreover, they will have secured Floyd of Rosedale for the third consecutive year, and notched their first win at Iowa since 1999. With just 12 games a year, and eight Big10 games, Week 1 of Big10 play reinforces just how important each and every week in college football can be.

#ProtectThePig

A Tribute to Tyrone

By Jason Rossow

This Saturday, Syracuse comes into TCF Bank Stadium for a matchup with the UNDEFEATED Golden Gophers. A night game, an undefeated team, and a BCS School matchup have combined to generate more buzz in Gopher Nation than at any point since Minnesota opened up their new stadium over three years ago. There are a ton of story lines with Max Shortell starting his first college game at home with Gray being sidelined.  How will the Gophers D match-up with Syracuse’s high powered offense, and can the O-line establish running lanes for Donnell Kirkwood.

But thinking about Saturday, my mind keeps drifting to the Gopher Hall-of-Fame class of 2012. Most notably, Tyrone Carter. Carter is my all-time favorite Minnesota Gopher, and the best Gopher football player in my lifetime. I’d rank him ahead of Darryl Thompson, Ricky Foggie, Laurence Maroney, Marion Barber, Eric Decker, Matt Spaeth, and even Outland Trophy winner Greg Eslinger.

Carter came to Minnesota in 1996 from Pompano Beach Florida, while all of his friends went off to Miami, Florida and Florida State. He was raised by his Grandma, and she thought it would be beneficial for young Tyrone to get as far away as possible from the temptations and bad influences in the Florida area. Carter’s first year at the “U” was Jim Wacker's last. In some of the ugliest uniforms ever, Tyrone became a fan favorite as an 18-year-old freshman when he picked up two fumbles for touchdowns in less than a minute, in turn handing the Gophers a win over a Donavan McNabb-led Syracuse team.

Carter changed Gopher football. He was far and away the best player on the team his final three seasons, and helped change the Gophers from a perennial bottom feeder of the Big10 to a legitimate middle-of-the-pack bowl team, capable of beating any Big10 team on any given Saturday. Since 1967, no Minnesota team had won more than seven games, and only the '77 team won seven. But in 1999, Carter lead Minnesota to eight regular season wins, and their first bowl game in over a decade. In the 11 years starting with Carter’s last, Minnesota would go on to play in nine bowls. I think Tyrone Carter helped build expectations.

As a 5’9",  185-lb. safety, he somehow was able to accumulate a ridiculous 528 tackles for the Maroon & Gold, which is easily the most in program history. In his junior year he compiled the most gaudy stats of any Gopher defender in any season. He has the all-time records for most tackles in a season (158) and solos (143), and he also recorded eight sacks and 15 tackles for loss from his safety spot! He has three of the top eight single season tackle totals for the “U”, and is one of the top all-time kick and punt returners too, along with scooping up seven fumbles in his career. He was a three-time All-Conference selection, and two-time first-team All-American. He was the team defensive and overall MVP his Junior and Senior seasons. His Senior season he won the Jim Thorpe Award given to the top D-Back in the country. He ended his career in the Maroon & Gold with a close loss to Oregon in the Sun Bowl where he recorded 18 tackles. He went on to play a long NFL career, including two Super Bowl wins with the Steelers, and twice being named defensive player of the week.

Tyrone Carter is my all-time favorite Gopher and he might be the single player responsible for my obsession with Gopher Football. Glen Mason had the best coaching tenure of any Gopher coach since Murray Warmath of the 50’s to early 70’s. I wonder if that would have been the case if he didn’t inherit a 5’9", 185-lb. sophomore from Florida.

Fantasy Hot Links

Sorry gang, I've been neglecting the blog for a few weeks as I've been in transition with another cross-country move (this time from Chicago to Seattle). I've also been gearing up for the fantasy season, working hard for the newly launched LeagueSafe Post. Below are links to my latest work:

• 2012 Undervalued Fantasy Players
• 2012 Overvalued Fantasy Players
• Boser's TweetBeat (7/11/12)
• Graphing Running Back Declines
• Podcast: 2012 Breakouts

Enjoy!

Should Rick Anderson Be On the Hot Seat?

By Matt Tschida

Seemingly every time Twins hitters have struggled over the past two seasons, the masses have made Joe Vavra the scapegoat. He's a convenient target who took a lot of heat last season despite an absurd amount of injuries to his lineup (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Span, etc.). Meanwhile, the 2011 pitching staff was mostly healthy and returning basically the same staff from 2010, yet their collective ERA jumped by nearly a half a run (from 4.17 in 2010 to 4.64 in 2011). 

I have never been one to call for a person's head, especially a pitching or hitting coach, because their job performance can be very intangible. However, I think it’s time to put a little heat on Rick Anderson’s seat. Gardenhire has more affection for Rick Anderson than he did for Nick Punto, so he’s not likely to get fired, but it might be the change they need.

Rick Anderson is as likeable as any coach the Twins have on their staff—perhaps that's part of the problem. The Twins need someone with fire, or at least someone who can handle pitchers who are fiery competitors. Many people blame the front office for the lack of pitching talent coming through the system, but realistically, if Rick Anderson could have gotten along with some of their players, this starting rotation wouldn’t be worst in baseball. For example, here are just a few pitchers who, for various reasons, are no longer part of the Twins' rotation:

-        R.A. Dickey – This is probably the easiest guy on the list to look past because of his age (now 37) and ineffectiveness during his stint with the Twins. If Anderson and the Twins staff could have stuck with Dickey during his transition to a knuckleball pitcher, they’d likely have a top 5 pitcher in the league. I personally don’t blame them for letting him go, because no one could have projected this type of progression for Dickey.

-        Kyle Lohse – It was widely publicized that Lohse did not get along with Gardenhire and his staff—at one point he got so upset that he struck the manager’s door with a bat. The Twins rotation has a bulldog in Carl Pavano, but there really isn’t anyone other than him who has shown the fire needed to be a No. 2 or even No. 3 starter. Can you imagine this Twins staff trying to deal with Jack Morris, who was as fiery as they come? For some reason, Anderson and Gardenhire cannot handle these types of pitchers, but it is exactly the type of pitcher this squad needs.

-        Matt Garza – Garza, like Lohse was another pitcher with a fiery attitude that didn’t see eye to eye with the Twins staff, prompting his trade to Tampa Bay. He may be stubborn, but Garza is another very competitive pitcher who would be a boon to this rotation.

-        Kevin Slowey – Slowey was one of the Twins' prized pitching prospects, as he dominated at every level until he made it to the majors. Once he got to the show, he was actually fairly solid, going 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA in his first full season. Despite good win-loss totals (which are pretty meaningless) in 2009 and 2010, his ERA ballooned to the 4.50 range (still would be solid for this current rotation) and he was sent to the bullpen. As we know, he balked at the demotion, and was eventually traded away this past offseason.

-        Glen Perkins – Given the success Perkins has had as a set-up man the past two seasons, many people forget the feud he had with the Twins staff. There was a point in 2009 where he and his agent were looking into a claim that the Twins were keeping him in the minors because of future free agent status requirements. The Twins staff was upset with Perkins for not disclosing a so-called injury after a poor start, but thankfully, the two sides made up before the club lost another solid arm.

These are just a few examples in the recent history of feuds between pitchers and the Twins coaching staff. Now, I understand that every team has some bad eggs, but this seems like a pretty obvious trend and it’s really being overlooked right now. 

The Twins have scored the most runs out of any team in the MLB since mid-May, and their defense has been much better than last season, but the starting pitching staff (second worst in baseball) has prevented them from contending for the division. In fairness to Anderson, the Twins obviously miss Carl Pavano and Scott Baker, but their starters' No. 29 ERA (6.06) is more than a full run worse than the No. 28 Royals.   

It's become painfully obvious that the Twins need to reevaluate Rick Anderson. 

Vikings 2012 Rookie Class Video Collection

No. 4 - Matt Kalil, LT, USC (6'6", 306 lbs.)






No. 29 - Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame (6'2", 213 lbs.)

No. 66 - Josh Robinson, CB, UCF (5'10", 199 lbs.)

No. 118 - Jarius Wright, WR, Arkansas (5'10", 180 lbs.)

No. 128 - Rhett Ellison, TE/FB, USC (6'5", 251 lbs.)






No. 134 - Greg Childs, WR, Arkansas (6'3", 219 lbs.)








No. 139 - Robert Blanton DB, Notre Dame (6'1", 208 lbs.)






No. 175 - Blair Walsh, K, Georgia (5'9", 187 lbs.)




No. 210 - Audie Cole, LB, NC State (6'4", 246 lbs.)






No. 219 - Trevor Guyton, DE, California (6'3", 285 lbs.)

Early Season Twins Thoughts

By Matt Tschida

Time for Valencia/Burroughs Platoon?

I never really bought into the Danny Valencia hype back when he was among the Twins' top minor league prospects. His career minor league production wasn't great, but rather solid, with an average of .298 and an OBP of .353. Moreover, the most home runs he ever hit in one season was 17. Granted, if he could hit .298 with 15-20 home runs while playing solid defense, the Twins would be thrilled. The problem is that he's gotten pull-happy, which has made it easy for opposing teams to pitch him away. 

When Valencia stays focused on using the whole field, he can drive balls to both gaps for extra base hits, as he did in his rookie season when he hit .311 in 85 games. Valencia's lack of focus at the plate has been coupled with struggles in the field, which is something we grew accustomed to last year. 

So far this season, Valencia is already a -3 in the defensive runs saved—a stat that shows how many runs a player saves (or gives up) defensively compared to the average defender. Last season, Valencia was 13 runs saved below the average third baseman. If he's not pulling his share of the load at the plate or in the field, there's no reason to continue to trot him out to third base on an everyday basis. With Terry Ryan taking over, the “scholarship” era was supposed to be over. Other than Valencia’s 85 games as a rookie, he hasn’t done anything to warrant the opportunities he continues to get from this club. 

My solution for the immediate future would be to start platooning Valencia with Sean Burroughs. Burroughs is the far superior fielder, and could face right handed pitchers (career .290 hitter vs. right handed pitchers) while Valencia would play against left handed pitchers (career .327 hitter vs. LHP compared to .241 vs. RHP). Considering how much the Twins' pitching staff relies on its defense, they would be better served with the sure-handed Burroughs playing the hot corner more often.

Terry Ryan’s Signings Off to a Good Start

Despite the team's early season woes, Terry Ryan's offseason signings have gotten off to solid starts. Josh Willingham, the hottest Twins' bat, has shown that he can fill the void left by Cuddyer by hitting .311 with 5 home runs and 12 RBIs. Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll have also produced early. Doumit, who gives Gardenhire much-needed flexibility with his ability to play C/OF/1B, is hitting .245, but is second on the team with his 10 RBI so far. Carroll, whose ability to play shortstop full time was questioned, has stabilized the infield and while coming up with some clutch hits (he’s hitting only .245, but is fourth on the team with an OBP of .338).

The pitching that was added this offseason has also gotten off to a good start. In his two starts so far, Jason Marquis has done what the Twins expect from him; pitch into the 6th or 7th inning and give the Twins a chance to win. The three bullpen arms added (Jeff Gray, Jared Burton and Matt Maloney) have all succeeded in their early roles, with Gray and Maloney carrying ERA’s under 3.00. After Burton’s shaky first outing, he's only given up one run in six innings. 

Will the Vikings Improve on 3-13 in 2012?

In today's NFL free agency era, teams can make dramatic turnarounds in a very short period of time. Unfortunately, our 3-13 Vikings flunked free agency. While they're certain to get an instant contributor with the third pick in the draft, it's hard to argue with online casinos that have pinned the Vikings (100/1) with the second longest Super Bowl odds (Cleveland's at 150/1).

A quick look at the Vikings' last-place schedule shows some very winnable games, especially early. Without going into depth, here's my first impression of the wins, losses and wild cards.

Week 1: vs. Jacksonville
Week 2: at Indianapolis
Week 3: vs. San Francisco
Week 4: at Detroit
Week 5: vs. Tennessee
Week 6: at Washington
Week 7: vs. Arizona
Week 8: vs. Tampa Bay
Week 9: at Seattle
Week 10: vs. Detroit
Week 12: at Chicago
Week 13: at Green Bay
Week 14: vs. Chicago
Week 15: at St. Louis
Week 16: at Houston
Week 17: vs. Green Bay

Clearly, there will be some tightly contested matchups, and the five-game stretch from Weeks 5-9 will go a long ways in defining the season. At first glance, I can see the Vikings finishing anywhere between 2-14 and 9-7, which means—BREAKING NEWS—the Vikings have no chance of making the playoffs.

If I were playing blackjack, I'd split my eights and put the Vikings on a 6-10 record. Amongst the wild card games, I'd give the team home victories over Tennessee (Week 5), Arizona (Week 6), Tampa Bay (Week 8) and Chicago (Week 14). I don't think any of these opponents have the aerial firepower to take advantage of Minnesota's defunct secondary, the protection to slow a fierce pass rush or the maturity to overcome hostile road environments. I have a low opinion of Josh Freeman, and while Chicago is tricky, I think there's a good chance they'll have imploded by Week 14.

Conversely, I see the Vikings losing the three road wild card games at Washington, Seattle and St. Louis. Each of these teams should be much-improved, with the Redskins and Seahawks sporting new signal callers, and Jeff Fisher, Cortland Finnegan and (potentially) Justin Blackmon bringing credibility to the Rams.

The talent gap between the Vikings and each of these wild card teams is very slim, and to be honest, I feel like 6-10 may be too generous. So go ahead, call me a homer, there's a first time for everything!

Vikings Mock Draft: Inside the War Room

1.06 - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
1.29 - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
2.03 - Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
3.03 - Markelle Martin, FS, Oklahoma State
4.01 - Antonio Allen, SS, South Carolina
4.03 - Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami
4.33* - Juron Criner, WR, Arizona
4.39* - Tank Carder, ILB, TCU
6.05 - Evan Rodriguez, TE/FB, Temple
7.39 - Greg Zuerlein, K, Missouri Western State

For the second consecutive season, I’m proud to be a part of the Vikings’ war room in the Twitter-based MockOne series. Each of the 32 teams are represented by a contingent of NFL tweeters that range from paid NFL Draft analysts, to amateur draftniks, to lowly bloggers like myself. I’m joined in the purple trenches by Josh Deceuster of “Mocking the Draft,” and Brett Anderson and Adam Warwas of “Vikings Territory.”

The following are my notes.

• After Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were selected, we immediately made the No. 3 pick available. We were fully prepared to select USC OT Matt Kalil, but wanted to see what kind of package the pick might fetch, as the team is in desperate need of an across-the-board youth infusion.

• Miami was the only team we outwardly approached, thinking they’d be interested in Ryan Tannehill, but they weren’t. However, we were a bit surprised to get serious interest from the Rams (1.06). We assumed that Kalil was their guy, so making a trade meant he wouldn’t be available for us at No. 6. 

• The Rams’ best offer for pick 1.03 was a package of 1.06, 2.07 and 4.01. Ultimately, we felt that by moving back just three spots, we’d still have the opportunity to select one of the top three non-quarterbacks on our board (Kalil, LSU CB Morris Claiborne or OK State WR Justin Blackmon) while adding valuable picks to begin rebuilding our porous roster. The picks would also give us flexibility to move back up if the right player slid in the first round. 

• We accepted the offer, knowing there were three acceptable outcomes that we ranked in this order: (1) Select Claiborne at No. 6; (2) Trade back again, amass more picks and target Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd or Iowa OT Riley Reiff; (3) “Settle” for Justin Blackmon.

• As expected, Kalil went third to the Rams, Alabama RB Trent Richardson went fourth to the Browns and the Bucs snatched up Claiborne one spot before us. 

• We tried feverishly to move back, targeting teams picking 8-13, but garnered no interest.

With the sixth pick (1.06) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Justin Blackmon, wide receiver, Oklahoma State.

• This pick was not unanimous, as there was a push for both Floyd and Reiff. Ultimately, we concluded that the Blackmon (6’ 1/2”, 211 lbs.) was the draft’s premier perimeter playmaker, and could provide Christian Ponder more firepower in an attempt to keep pace in the high-octane NFC North. While he wasn’t a Combine workout warrior like fellow receivers Michael Floyd or Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill, Blackmon’s on-field domination couldn’t be denied. He’s no Troy Williamson in the 40, but he’s an incredibly strong athlete who boasts jaw-dropping body control. He runs good routes, and we felt that his elite YAC ability would be the perfect outside compliment to Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph/John Carlson and a strong run game in our West Coast Offense. He’s an instant starter opposite Harvin, relegating Michael Jenkins to spot duty.

• We were happy with the Blackmon selection, but felt a bit uneasy after passing on Kalil, knowing that Reiff, Stanford’s Jonathan Martin and Ohio State’s Mike Adams would all potentially be off the board before our next pick.

• When we reached 2.20 and Jonathan Martin, our consensus No. 3 OT, was still on the board, we began discussing cashing in some of our quantity for quality.

• With Martin still on the board at 26, we took action, offering Houston picks 2.07, 4.01 and 6.05. They rejected. The Patriots then rejected the identical offer for pick No. 27. 

• With the Ravens on the clock at 29, and Martin still available, we finally struck a deal, sending picks 2.07, 5.03 and 7.03 to Baltimore.

With the 29th pick (1.29) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Jonathan Martin, offensive tackle, Stanford.

• After dealing with the Rams and Ravens, the Vikings essentially swapped Matt Kalil (1.03), 5.03 and 7.03 for Justin Blackmon (1.06), Jonathan Martin (1.29) and 4.01. 

• We were ecstatic to pull this off, and while Martin (6’6”, 305 lbs.) is no Matt Kalil, he does project as a good left tackle at the next level. It’s been well documented that recent Super Bowl champions have been winning with less-than-dominant left tackles. Martin’s not a brute like bookend Phil Loadholt, but Andrew Luck’s former blindside protector is quick, athletic and very smart. Charlie Johnson slides inside to left guard, and we’ve now added two crucial pieces at two positions of dire need that will help Christian Ponder succeed in his second season.

• With two massive boxes checked, our conversation quickly shifted to the secondary and pick 2.03. Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith was the popular name, but none of us were convinced that he was anywhere near BPA at this point, so we again discussed sliding back. Despite adding Blackmon, we toyed with the idea of South Carolina wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. In the end, we kept coming back to one name: North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins.

With the 35th pick (2.03) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Janoris Jenkins, cornerback, North Alabama.

• As a pure cover corner, Jenkins has as much ability as anybody this side of Morris Claiborne. He’s a touch small (5’10”, 183 lbs.), but he’d be a potential top-10 pick if not for his off-field issues. We felt that we’d nailed two major needs prior to this pick, so with our third pick—a second rounder, no less—the reward greatly outweighed the risk with Jenkins. While cornerback isn’t as desperate a need as safety after the additions of Chris Cook (aquitted) and stopgaps Zach Bowman and Chris Carr, this pick has the potential to pay long-term dividends in the league’s best passing division. Names like Randy Moss, Chris Carter and Percy Harvin kept coming up; supremely talented players who were worth the risk. Here’s hoping that the God-fearing Leslie Frazier can mold a man (and perennial Pro Bowler) out of Jenkins. 

UPDATE: 4/17, 9:38 AM

• After furiously maneuvering our way through the first 35 picks, we felt that we'd secured three top-20 talents at positions of need, and finally had a chance to catch our breaths and regroup. At this point it became clear that we needed to make safety a priority at 3.03 (Mistral Raymond/Jamarca Sanford would arguably be the worst safety tandem of the modern era).

• We had a long list of BPA that we could potentially consider if they slid to us, which included North Carolina OLB Zach Brown (2.22 to Detroit) and Clemson DT Brandon Thompson (2.28 to Green Bay).

• Mississippi OT Bobby Massie, a right tackle, was also a very popular name in our war room. However, we expect mauler Phil Loadholt to take the next step in his contract year, and we're still optimistic about 2011 sixth-rounder DeMarcus Love.

• Boise State safety George Iloka was atop my wish list, and I was a bit heartbroken when he was selected by the Patriots at 2.31.

• When we reached the on-deck circle, our war room was split between Oklahoma State safety Markelle Martin (my choice) and Montana cornerback/safety Trumaine Johnson. Knowing that there were two players we'd be happy with, we entertained the notion of sliding back, but found no takers.

With the 66th pick (3.03) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Markelle Martin, safety, Oklahoma State.

• Considering that we'd already added Janoris Jenkins to a secondary that included Chris Cook, questions about Trumaine Johnson's character and work ethic didn't do him any favors in our war room.

• The moment we called Martin's name, he became the best safety on our roster. At 6'1", 207 lbs., he'll be able to play either safety spot in our Tampa 2, and has the ability to be a major contributor on special teams as well. He's a big-time athlete with an NFL body who hits like a truck. He's also a low-risk, pro-ready prospect. He has some technique/fundamental flaws, but like OSU teammate Justin Blackmon, he's a smart, hard-working kid who's passionate about the game. For this reason, we think his warts can be corrected relatively easily with NFL coaching.

UPDATE: 4/17,11:50 PM

• With one of the extra picks (4.01) we added from St. Louis via the Kalil trade, we held both 4.01 and 4.03. We'd addressed major needs prior to these picks, so we were in favor of drafting BPA regardless of position.

• We unanimously had Jamell Fleming (CB, Oklahoma) queued up as our pick at 4.01, and were shocked that he was sill available late in the third. Sadly, he was plucked by the 49ers at 3.30, sending us into a bit of a tizzy. 

• My three teammates had South Carolina safety Antonio Allen as their next best player. I was not thrilled, and offered up Michigan St. quarterback Kirk Cousins as my choice. I think he'd be an outstanding developmental West Coast Offense quarterback and long-term Ponder insurance. Or, I could have envisioned him as the next Matt Schaub/Kevin Kolb/Matt Flynn—a guy we'd turn into a second rounder in a couple of years. Drafting him would require the Vikings to carry four quarterbacks, however, and it simply didn't add up. 

• Without tipping our hand, I also fought hard for another player who I've been promised will be a Viking if he lasts to 4.33. There was more dissent than ever before this pick. Thanks, San Francisco.

With the 96th (4.01) pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Antonio Allen, safety, South Carolina.

• I was the final holdout on Allen (6'2", 202 lbs.), and it took some serious convincing. My primary concern was his ability to cover deep. What I wasn't worried about was his ability to lay the wood. He was a hybrid S/LB at South Carolina, and was excellent in run support and coverage of opposing tight ends.

• A tailor-made special teamer to boot, we've now addressed the secondary with three consecutive picks. While most boards would probably rate both Markelle Martin and Antonio Allen as moderate stretches where they were selected, I look at it as a matter of low supply and high demand. Safety is a league-wide problem—it's not exclusive to the Vikings. This is a thin safety class, which drove up the value of both Martin and Allen.

• In this scenario, there'd be a very good chance that Minnesota would be starting a rookie safety tandem, and while there would surely be growing pains in coverage, there'd be no free passes over the middle for opposing offenses.

UPDATE: 4/18,8:42 AM

• We fully expected to come out of this draft with at least two wide receivers, and after selecting three consecutive defensive backs, we shifted our focus back to Christian Ponder.

With the 98th pick (4.03) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Tommy Streeter, wide receiver, Miami.

• Streeter was not our BPA. In fact, he wasn't even our highest rated wide receiver. However, his mouth watering blend of size (6'5", 219 lbs.) and speed (unofficial 4.34 40) was just too enticing for us to risk waiting until 4.33. Streeter is a very raw, inexperienced and inconsistent prospect, so he's a long ways away from reaching his ceiling as a bonafide No. 1 receiver. In the meantime, we'll be more than happy to ease the developmental project into the mix by utilizing his speed on "nines" and his size in the red zone. 

• Two years from now, Ponder's arsenal of Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Justin Blackmon and Tommy Streeter will be a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. 

UPDATE: 4/19,10:24 AM

• Approaching our two compensatory picks we'd acquired in compensation for the departures of Sidney Rice and Ray Edwards, we felt that we'd done very well in addressing needs and would attempt to go BPA regardless of position for the remainder of the draft.

• I was desperately hoping that my guy, Nevada ILB James Michael-Johnson, would last to 4.33, but the Redskins snagged him at 4.07.

• We'd already taken part in the huge run of wide receivers with Streeter (between picks 3.27 and 4.30, 11 receivers came off the board). However, true to our board, we went back to the well for Ponder one more time.

With the 128th pick (4.33) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Juron Criner, wide receiver, Arizona.

• Criner was far and away the best player on our board. In fact, we had him rated ahead of each of the previous 13 receivers selected (we'd elevated Streeter due to his unlimited ceiling). At 6'4", 215 lbs., with a 38" vertical, Criner is a huge outside target with second-round talent. He doesn't have top-end speed—he's more in the mold of Sidney rice in terms of size, leaping ability, hands and body control. His stock was hurt by an appendectomy that dented his numbers, and a rumored (undisclosed) mental condition, so he's a bit of a wild card. While he's more pro-ready than Streeter, he'll still need to polish his game and improve his consistency.

• We love the talented competition we've added to a depleted receiver group in Blackmon, Streeter and Criner.

With the 134th pick (4.39) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Tank Carder, linebacker, TCU.

• The rest of the war room was higher on this guy than I was—I preferred Emmanuel Acho—but I'm happy to have added much-needed depth and competition at MLB. At 6'3", 237 lbs., Carder's a different breed from the guys we've targeted to this point. He's not a tremendous athlete with a ton of untapped potential, but instead an overachiever that's oozing with instincts, passion, effort and leadership. We think he can grow into the mold of Heath Farwell—a solid backup and standout special teamer.

UPDATE: 4/23,12:10 PM

• There were four players we were keying in on with this pick: linebackers Emmanuel Acho (Texas) and Travis Lewis (Oklahoma), running back Chris Rainey (Florida) and defensive tackle Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (Baylor). None of them made it to us, so we again went with the best player on our board. 

With the 175th (6.05) pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Evan Rodriguez, tight end/fullback, Temple.

• Laugh it up. We'd already added tight end John Carlson and fullbacks Jerome Felton and Lex Hilliard to the mix via free agency, but Rodriguez brings something completely different to the table. At 6'2", 250 lbs., Rodriguez possesses the athleticism and versatility to move around the formation (both inline and in the backfield) and create mismatches as an "h-back." He needs to mature, but with a little coaching creativity, there's no doubt that he has the talent to carve out a role in this offense. He's another multi-faceted weapon for Christian Ponder and Bill Musgrave. 

With the 223rd (7.16) pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Greg Zuerlein, kicker, Western Missouri State.

• We concluded our draft by selecting the overall top kicker on our board. Zuerlein has a cannon for a leg (last year he set an NCAA record by going 9-of-9 from 50+ yards, including a pair from 58). The aging Ryan Longwell is on the decline, so Zuerlein's 60-yard range could come in handy sooner rather than later.